Nisha Hazra

Differences in Health at Age 100 According to Sex: Population-Based Cohort Study of Centenarians Using Electronic Health Records

To use primary care electronic health records (EHRs) to evaluate the health of men and women at age 100.

Incidence and mortality of relapsing polychondritis in the UK: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE Relapsing polychondritis is a rare disease characterized by cartilage inflammation. Our aim was to estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality of relapsing polychondritis and describe the clinical features of relapsing polychondritis in a large population. METHODS All participants diagnosed with relapsing polychondritis were sampled from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Prevalence and incidence rates for 1990-2012 were estimated. Relative mortality rates were estimated in a time-to-event framework using reference UK life tables. A questionnaire validation study assessed diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS There were 117 participants with relapsing polychondritis ever recorded. Fifty (82%) of 61 cases were validated by a physician and unconfirmed cases were excluded. The analysis included 106 participants (42 men, 64 women) diagnosed with relapsing polychondritis. The mean age (range) at diagnosis in men was 55 (range 17-81) years and in women 51 (range 11-79) years. The median interval from first symptom to diagnosis was 1.9 years. The incidence of relapsing polychondritis between 1990 and 2012 was 0.71 (95% CI 0.55, 0.91) per million population per year. There were 19 deaths from any cause. There were 16 observed deaths eligible for survival analysis and 7.4 deaths expected for the UK population of the same age, sex and period. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.16 (95% CI 1.24, 3.51), P < 0.01. Respiratory disease, cardiac conditions and cancer were the most frequent causes of death. CONCLUSION The incidence of relapsing polychondritis may be lower than previously estimated, and diagnostic misclassification and delay are common. Mortality in relapsing polychondritis is more than twice that of the general population.

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age

Background: Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ≥80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144 403 participants ≥80 years of age registered with family practices in the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2014. Participants were followed for ⩽5 years. Clinical records of SBP were analyzed. Frailty status was classified using the e-Frailty Index into the categories of fit, mild, moderate, and severe. All-cause mortality was evaluated by frailty status and mean SBP in Cox proportional-hazards models. SBP trajectories were evaluated using person months as observations, with mean SBP and antihypertensive treatment status estimated for each person month. Fractional polynomial models were used to estimate SBP trajectories over 5 years before death. Results: During follow-up, 51 808 deaths occurred. Mortality rates increased with frailty level and were greatest at SBP <110 mm Hg. In fit women, mortality was 7.7 per 100 person years at SBP 120 to 139 mm Hg, 15.2 at SBP 110 to 119 mm Hg, and 22.7 at SBP <110 mm Hg. For women with severe frailty, rates were 16.8, 25.2, and 39.6, respectively. SBP trajectories showed an accelerated decline in the last 2 years of life. The relative odds of SBP <120 mm Hg were higher in the last 3 months of life than 5 years previously in both treated (odds ratio, 6.06; 95% confidence interval, 5.40–6.81) and untreated (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 5.30–7.52) patients. There was no evidence of intensification of antihypertensive therapy in the final 2 years of life. Conclusions: A terminal decline of SBP in the final 2 years of life suggests that nonrandomized epidemiological associations of low SBP with higher mortality may be accounted for by reverse causation if participants with lower blood pressure values are closer, on average, to the end of life.

Longitudinal Trends in Hypertension Management and Mortality Among Octogenarians: Prospective Cohort Study

The role of hypertension management among octogenarians is controversial. In this long-term follow-up (>10 years) study, we estimated trends in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control among octogenarians, and evaluated the relationship of systolic blood pressure (SBP) ranges with mortality. Data were based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Outcome measures were hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control, and cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality events. Participants were separated into 8 categories of SBP values (<110, 110–119, 120–129, 130–139, 140–149, 150–159, 160–169, and >169 mm Hg). Among 2692 octogenarians, mean SBP levels declined from 147 mm Hg in 1998/2000 to 134 mm Hg in 2012/2013. The decline was of lower magnitude in the 50 to 79 years old subgroup (n=22007). Hypertension prevalence and awareness were 40% and 13%, respectively, higher among octogenarians than the 50 to 79 years of age subgroup, but hypertension treatment rates were similar (≈90%). Around 47% of the treated octogenarians achieved conventional BP targets (<140/90 mm Hg), increasing to 59% when assessed against revised targets (<150/90 mm Hg). All-cause mortality rates were higher (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.89–2.72) at lower extremes of SBP values (<110 mm Hg). The lowest cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk among treated octogenarians was observed for an SBP range of 140 to 149 mm Hg (1.04, 0.60–1.78) and 160 to 169 mm Hg (0.78, 0.51–1.21). An increasing trend in hypertension awareness and treatment was observed in a large sample of community-dwelling octogenarians. The results do not support the view that more stringent BP targets may be associated with lower mortality.

Evaluating pancreatitis in primary care: a population-based cohort study

Background Pancreatitis is an important condition with significant mortality. Primary care may have an important role to play in its prevention, early diagnosis, and ongoing management. Aim To evaluate incidence, case fatality, and clinical features of acute and chronic pancreatitis in a large population. Design and setting Population-based cohort study using a primary care database in the UK from 1990 to 2013. Method Use of general practice records from 16 491 patients diagnosed with pancreatitis. Age-standardised incidence rates and case fatality were estimated. Clinical features, aetiology, and patterns of recurrence were evaluated. Results Incidence of pancreatitis increased from 14.8 in 100 000 (1990–1994) to 31.2 in 100 000 (2010–2013) in males, and from 14.5 to 28.3 in 100 000 in females (2010–2013). Overall case fatality after diagnosis was 4.3% (95% CI = 4.0% to 4.6%) at 90 days and 7.9% (95% CI = 7.5% to 8.4%) at 365 days. In 1990–1994, 10% of patients with acute pancreatitis were recorded as heavy drinkers, increasing to 12% in 2010–2012; for patients with chronic pancreatitis the proportions were 13%, rising to 21%. Among patients who died in the 90 days after diagnosis, 92% consulted with their general practice in the 2 months before first diagnosis. Conclusion The incidence of pancreatitis is increasing over time. Alcohol abuse may now account for at least one in eight cases of acute, and one in five cases of chronic pancreatitis. Consultations among those who subsequently died may have offered potential for earlier diagnosis and intervention.

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty and All-Cause Mortality Over 80 Years of Age. Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records

Background: Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ≥80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144 403 participants ≥80 years of age registered with family practices in the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2014. Participants were followed for ⩽5 years. Clinical records of SBP were analyzed. Frailty status was classified using the e-Frailty Index into the categories of fit, mild, moderate, and severe. All-cause mortality was evaluated by frailty status and mean SBP in Cox proportional-hazards models. SBP trajectories were evaluated using person months as observations, with mean SBP and antihypertensive treatment status estimated for each person month. Fractional polynomial models were used to estimate SBP trajectories over 5 years before death. Results: During follow-up, 51 808 deaths occurred. Mortality rates increased with frailty level and were greatest at SBP <110 mm Hg. In fit women, mortality was 7.7 per 100 person years at SBP 120 to 139 mm Hg, 15.2 at SBP 110 to 119 mm Hg, and 22.7 at SBP <110 mm Hg. For women with severe frailty, rates were 16.8, 25.2, and 39.6, respectively. SBP trajectories showed an accelerated decline in the last 2 years of life. The relative odds of SBP <120 mm Hg were higher in the last 3 months of life than 5 years previously in both treated (odds ratio, 6.06; 95% confidence interval, 5.40–6.81) and untreated (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 5.30–7.52) patients. There was no evidence of intensification of antihypertensive therapy in the final 2 years of life. Conclusions: A terminal decline of SBP in the final 2 years of life suggests that nonrandomized epidemiological associations of low SBP with higher mortality may be accounted for by reverse causation if participants with lower blood pressure values are closer, on average, to the end of life.

Drug Utilization and Inappropriate Prescribing in Centenarians

To use primary care electronic health records (EHRs) to evaluate prescriptions and inappropriate prescribing in men and women at age 100.

Declining blood pressure and intensification of blood pressure management among people over 80 years: Cohort study using electronic health records

Background: Management of high blood pressure (BP) in people over 80 years is controversial, but there is limited information available concerning the uptake of hypertension treatment at this age. Objective: To evaluate use of antihypertensive drugs and changes in SBP and DBP from 2001 to 2014 in men and women aged 80 years and over. Methods: Cohort study using primary care electronic health records of 265 225 participants from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Records of BP and antihypertensive medications were analysed. Linear trends were estimated by frailty category in multiple regression models. Results: Data were analysed for 116 401 men and 148 824 women. The proportion with BP recorded increased from 51% in 2001 to 78% in 2014. The proportion of patients prescribed antihypertensive medications increased from 64 to 76%. Mean SBP declined from 150 (SD 20) mmHg in 2001 to 135 (16) mmHg in 2014. In ‘fit’ participants, the decline in SBP was 12.4 (95% confidence interval 11.9–13.0) mmHg/decade in those treated for hypertension and 8.5 (7.8–9.1) mmHg in those not treated. The decline in SBP was smaller as frailty increased. The proportion of all participants with BP less than 140/90 mmHg increased from 14 to 44% in the study period. Conclusion: In octogenarians, BP treatment has intensified between 2001 and 2014. BP values have declined in both treated and untreated participants, with a substantial increase in the proportion achieving conventional BP targets.

Longitudinal Trends in Hypertension Management and Mortality Among Octogenarians

The role of hypertension management among octogenarians is controversial. In this long-term follow-up (>10 years) study, we estimated trends in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control among octogenarians, and evaluated the relationship of systolic blood pressure (SBP) ranges with mortality. Data were based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Outcome measures were hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control, and cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality events. Participants were separated into 8 categories of SBP values (<110, 110–119, 120–129, 130–139, 140–149, 150–159, 160–169, and >169 mm Hg). Among 2692 octogenarians, mean SBP levels declined from 147 mm Hg in 1998/2000 to 134 mm Hg in 2012/2013. The decline was of lower magnitude in the 50 to 79 years old subgroup (n=22007). Hypertension prevalence and awareness were 40% and 13%, respectively, higher among octogenarians than the 50 to 79 years of age subgroup, but hypertension treatment rates were similar (≈90%). Around 47% of the treated octogenarians achieved conventional BP targets (<140/90 mm Hg), increasing to 59% when assessed against revised targets (<150/90 mm Hg). All-cause mortality rates were higher (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.89–2.72) at lower extremes of SBP values (<110 mm Hg). The lowest cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk among treated octogenarians was observed for an SBP range of 140 to 149 mm Hg (1.04, 0.60–1.78) and 160 to 169 mm Hg (0.78, 0.51–1.21). An increasing trend in hypertension awareness and treatment was observed in a large sample of community-dwelling octogenarians. The results do not support the view that more stringent BP targets may be associated with lower mortality.

Incidence and mortality of fractures by frailty level over 80 years of age: cohort study using UK electronic health records

Objective This study aimed to estimate the association of frailty with incidence and mortality of fractures at different sites in people aged over 80 years. Design Cohort study. Setting UK family practices from 2001 to 2014. Participants 265 195 registered participants aged 80 years and older. Measurements Frailty status classified into ‘fit’, ‘mild’, ‘moderate’ and ‘severe’ frailty. Fractures, classified into non-fragility and fragility, including fractures of femur, pelvis, shoulder and upper arm, and forearm/wrist. Incidence of fracture, and mortality within 90 days and 1 year, were estimated. Results There were 28 643 fractures including: non-fragility fractures, 9101; femur, 12 501; pelvis, 2172; shoulder and upper arm, 4965; and forearm/wrist, 6315. The incidence of each fracture type was higher in women and increased with frailty category (femur, severe frailty compared with ‘fit’, incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.4, 95% CI 2.3 to 2.6). Fractures of the femur (95–99 years compared with 80–84 years, IRR 2.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 2.9) and pelvis (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.5 to 3.3) were strongly associated with age but non-fragility and forearm fractures were not. Mortality within 90 days was greatest for femur fracture (adjusted HR, compared with forearm fracture 4.3, 95% CI 3.7 to 5.1). Mortality was higher in men and increased with age (HR 5.3, 95% CI 4.3 to 6.5 in those over 100 years compared with 80–84 years) but was less strongly associated with frailty category. Similar associations with fractures were seen at 1-year mortality. Conclusions The incidence of fractures at all sites was higher in women and strongly associated with advancing frailty status, while the risk of mortality after a fracture was greater in men and was associated with age rather than frailty category.