Nizamul Islam

A Monte Carlo evaluation of discrete choice labour supply models

This paper is based on a Monte Carlo simulation in order to evaluate the properties of the discrete labour supply model. The data is generated by a continuous model and a discrete choice model is estimated assuming a translog utility function. The robustness of the results for different number of points in the discrete choice set, as well as for measurement errors in income and hours are compared. The discrete model produces similar results as the ‘true’ continuous model and apart from large measurement errors in hours these results are robust.

Are demand elasticities affected by politically determined tax levels? Simultaneous estimates of gasoline demand and price

Raising the price of fossil fuels is a key component of any effective policy to deal with climate change. Just how effective such policies are is decided by the price elasticities of demand. Many papers have studied this without recognising that not only is there a demand side response: quantities are decided by the price but also there is a reverse causality: the level of consumption affects the political acceptability of the taxes which are the main component of the final price. Thus prices affect consumption and consumption levels, in turn, have an affect on taxes and thus consumer prices. This article estimates these functions simultaneously to show that there is indeed an effect on the demand elasticity.

The rise of working pensioners: the Swedish case

Abstract According to the Eurostat the old-age dependency (people aged 65 or above relative to those aged 15- 64) in the EU will rise from 28% in 2010 to 58% in 2060. During the same period total hours works are projected to fall contributing to a low projected economic growth over the next half-century. In this paper we argue that this gloomy picture might be challenged by an increase in the employment rates of older workers. Using Sweden as an illustration we show that the ratio of individuals with income from both pension and market work has increased strongly during the last decade. During the same period economic reforms have been introduced creating economic incentives in order to delay the exit from the labor market. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of these economic reforms in explaining increased working hours. The paper also evaluates the fiscal impact of the increase in the employment rates.