Noam Bergman

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an “equilibriumist” approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called “transformation processes”. These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature.

Scaling up local carbon action: the role of partnerships, networks and policy

The transition to a low-carbon society is imperative to climate change mitigation and requires cross-sectoral action at multiple levels. A growing literature emphasizes local action, but less is written about scaling up action at a county level. Combining three analytical perspectives – transition theory, strategic niche management and the middle-out – we examine the evolution and scaling up of local community-scale carbon action in Oxfordshire county. Our analysis is based on four local-level research projects. By identifying the roles and strategies of local actors in the development and scaling up of low carbon innovation and action, we conclude that local meso-level actors are crucial for catalyzing initial stages of county-level transitions, but limited in their capacity to scale up low-carbon innovation.

Why is renewable heat in the UK underperforming? A socio-technical perspective:

The potential role of microgeneration in energy supply, carbon emissions reduction, energy security and even fuel poverty has been a topic of much interest in the past few years. Industry and government focus has been on financial tools and other policies aimed at maximising uptake. However, some recent studies on solar hot water and heat pumps suggest that not all microgeneration installations are delivering the expected energy or emissions savings, and consumers are in turn not reaping the expected financial benefits. The reasons are a mixture of technical problems and poor installations, institutional issues, poor information supply to users, and improper use. Such issues could delay or jeopardise plans for rolling out microgenerators such as heat pumps. This article considers what policies would help maximise the above-listed benefits of microgeneration, including the implications for the Renewable Heat Incentive, and the importance of measuring actual energy savings in homes. Given the mixed nature of the issues, a broader systemic view is used to analyse the institutional, cultural and behavioural reasons for the discrepancies in energy savings.