Nofri Yenita Dahlan

Solar grid parity for Malaysia: Analysis using experience curves

This paper presents experience curve analysis in forecasting future costs of photovoltaic (PV) and hence estimating the grid parity year for Malaysia. Using the historical prices of the PV module and PV system from 2011-2013, the future PV module and system costs for 2014-2030 are extrapolated. The PV cost analysis requires forecasted PV production growth rate in Malaysia which is obtained from Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA). These forecasted PV costs are then used to estimate the solar grid parity year for Malaysia. From the analysis, it is found that the solar grid parity for Malaysia will be in year 2026 which is one year earlier than the projected solar grid parity i.e. 2027 determined by SEDA using FiT rate. Factors that influence the solar grid parity year are studied using sensitivity analysis i.e. 1) sensitivity to progress ratio and 2) sensitivity to cumulative PV production. Sensitivity to progress ratio shows that increasing the learning rate of the PV system cost will result in earlier solar grid parity. On the other hand, the sensitivity to cumulative PV production shows that, increasing the cumulative PV production in Malaysia will reduce the solar PV system cost and hence could help in achieving earlier solar grid parity.

Agent-Based Modeling for Studying the Impact of Capacity Mechanisms on Generation Expansion in Liberalized Electricity Market

This paper presents an approach to solve the long-term generation expansion planning problem of the restructured electricity industry using an agent-based environment. The proposed model simulates the generation investment decisions taken by a particular agent (i.e. a generating company) in a market environment taking into account its competitors’ strategic investment. The investment decision of a particular company is modeled taking into account that such company has imperfect foresight on the future system development hence electricity prices. The delay in the construction of new plants is also explicitly modeled, in order to compute accurately the yearly revenues of each agent. On top of a conventional energy market, several capacity incentive mechanisms including capacity payment and capacity market are simulated, so as to assess their impact on the investment promotion for generation expansion. Results provide insight on the investment cycles as well as dynamic system behavior of long-term generation expansion planning in a competitive electricity industry.

Feasibility study of an intentional islanding operation with a new adaptive load shedding

Intentional islanding operation has recently been considered by some utilities to effectively use the available renewable energy generation. In this paper, an intentional islanding operation of hydro Distributed Generation (DG) is proposed. Governor and Automatic Voltage Regulation (AVR) are properly developed such that the DG exhibits a good dynamic response once a part of the network is islanded. A new adaptive load shedding scheme is also proposed to address the issue of overload or insufficient generation after the system is islanded. The scheme is based on a combination of adaptive and intelligent techniques. The disturbance magnitude of response based and event based is treated differently: 1) event based is based on the power imbalance 2) response based is based on the swing equation which relies on the frequency and Rate of Change of Frequency measurement. To investigate the effectiveness of the controller and the load shedding scheme, dynamic simulation on an intentional islanding operation is performed on an existing Malaysia network interconnected with mini hydro generation. The simulation results demonstrate that the island is successfully established with the frequency and voltage response during the islanding operation are within the acceptable limit.

Energy saving analysis of a 16kWp grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system at Green Energy Research Centre (GERC), UiTM Shah Alam

This paper presents analysis of energy saving made by 16kWp grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system at Green Energy Research Centre (GERC), UiTM Shah Alam. The study is based on data collected from the PV system from May 2012 until April 2013. The data consists of solar irradiance, ambient and module temperature and output power of the PV system. The research investigates the effect of the PV system on the GERC buildings daily load curve and maximum demand using the concept of residual load. The energy saving based on TNB tariff is compared with the revenue if the energy from the PV system would be sold to national grid at the FiT tariff. The CO2 emission avoidance provided by the PV system is also calculated. Analysis shows that there were strong correlation between the solar irradiance, ambient temperature and module temperature with the energy from the PV The energy from the PV reduced the daily energy consumption by 28.34% during the weekday. Total energy saving by the PV over the duration considered was 20,679.28kWh and this saved RM9,827 of electricity bill. On the other hand, if the energy from the PV would be sold to the utility grid, the expected payback period on the investment is 11 year.

Under-frequency load shedding technique considering response based for islanding distribution network connected with mini hydro

One of the biggest challenge in an islanding operation is to sustain the frequency stability. A large power imbalance following islanding would cause under-frequency, hence an appropriate control is required to shed certain amount of load. Under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) scheme is commonly adopted for grid transmission system of which requires particular consideration for application on an isolated/islanded system. The main objective of this research is to develop an adaptive UFLS technique for an islanding system. The technique is designed considering response based for any disturbance during islanding operation. The disturbance magnitude is determined from the swing equation in which relies on frequency and rate of change of frequency measurement for shedding the required amount of load. The technique is modeled by using PSCAD simulation tool. A simulation study on a distribution network connected with mini hydro generation is carried out to evaluate the UFLS model. It is performed under different load condition: peak load, base load and overload scenario. The results have shown that the load shedding technique have successfully shed certain amount of load and stabilized the system frequency following overload.

Optimum generation mix for Malaysia's additional capacity using evolutionary programming

Energy Commission Malaysia is targeting 4100 MW of power generation capacity via competitive bidding to replace capacity from the 1st generation Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that will be retired from 2015 to 2017 and to cater for future demand growth. Malaysias generation mix has been long time dependence on a single fuel. This over-dependency is not a good option for long-term energy sustainability and security. This has led Malaysia to find other alternative resources to generate electricity. Some possible options are: 1) coal, 2) nuclear and 3) renewable energy (RE). This paper proposes to determine optimum alternative resources of generation mix for Malaysias additional capacity in 2015 using Evolutionary Programming (EP) at the least cost. The model takes into account characteristics associated with different technologies, such as the investment cost, the O&M cost, the fuel cost and the heat rate. This paper considers four new expansion candidates i.e. coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy as the major power generation sources. Result shows that, the optimum generation mix for Malaysias additional capacity in 2015 will be 67.9% is from coal, 22.51% from natural gas, 8.21% from nuclear and 1.25% from RE.

Analysis of the impact of nuclear power plant on Malaysia's power systems: Costs, CO 2 emission and system reliability

Although Malaysia is blessed with plenty of fossil fuel and natural resources, but the amount of fossil fuels is now depleting. This has led Malaysia to find other alternative resources to generate electricity to meet the demand. Some possible options are: 1) Coal, however this leads to the dependency on imported coal and increases gas carbon emission, 2) Renewable energy (RE), however, the resources are interruptible and expensive, 3) Nuclear power plant, however the recent Fukushima incident and the public acceptance are the major consideration. Despite the nuclear safety that should not be compromised, nuclear power plant has many advantages over fossil fuel power plants. Nuclear power plant produces less CO2 emission, cheaper levelized cost than coal and gas power plants and can operate continuously for long hours. Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water Malaysia (KETTHA) targets the energy from nuclear in Malaysia will be 17.8% of total generation mix in 2030. This paper studies the impact of nuclear power plant on Malaysias power system in 2030, in term of cost, CO2 emission and power system reliability. Two scenarios have been considered and compared; 1) Existing generation mix as in 2013, 2) Generation mix with nuclear as targeted by KETTHA in 2030. Results show that the generation mix with nuclear power plants has lower operation and investment cost, lower CO2 emission and higher system reliability.

Modelling of various meteorological effects on leakage current level for suspension type of high voltage insulators using HMLP neural network

Electrical power system lines sometimes pass along the coastal regions and transverse through the industrial areas of the Peninsular Malaysia. The phenomenon of salt blown from the sea to the land at the coastal area was causing salt deposition to the transformer bushing which contaminating the bushing surfaces and produced leakage current. Hence, it triggering to insulator flashover and finally the hot power arc will damage the bushing. This paper estimates leakage current level by modeling it as a function of various meteorological parameters using Hybrid Multilayered Perceptron Networks (HMLP) with Modified Recursive Prediction Error (MRPE) learning algorithms. The results are also compared with the regression analysis done previously. Meteorological parameters and leakage current data are based on the real measured data collected at YTL Paka Power Station in Terengganu.

Modeling Baseline Energy Using Artificial Neural Network – A Small Dataset Approach

Applied Computing Technology (ACT), Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, 86400 Johor, Malaysia. Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, 86400 Johor, Malaysia. Department of Management Information Systems, College of Commerce and Business Administrations, Dhofar University, Salalah, Oman.

Techno-economic Influence on Malaysia’s Solar Thermal Installation for Heating Process

Applied Computing Technology (ACT), Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, 86400 Johor, Malaysia. Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM), Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, 86400 Johor, Malaysia. Department of Management Information Systems, College of Commerce and Business Administrations, Dhofar University, Salalah, Oman.