Norfleet W. Rives

Interstate Migration of the Elderly Demographic Aspects

This study examines selected patterns of interstate migration for the older population of the United States during the period 1965-1970. Three broad topical areas are investigated: (1) the age and sex composition of migration streams of the elderly, (2) the effects of migration on state age distributions, and (3) the measurement and analysis of migration streams using migration preference indexes and basic gravity models. While the findings tend to confirm much of what is already. known about older interstate movers, the use of migration streams, rather than net migration, brings into sharper focus the nature of migration among the elderly and underscores the need for further research, particularly on matters related to planning and public policy.

An Econometric Model of the Tobacco Industry

N this paper we describe an econometric model of the American tobacco industry for the period 1949 through 1966. The model contains 19 equations and is divided into three major blocks (1) leaf production, (2) leaf price, and (3) cigarettes. The objective is to explain the behavior of the tobacco industry over an 18-year period. Ultimately, we hope to use the model to perform policy simulation experiments to evaluate the effects of alternative governmental and managerial policies on the behavior of the industry. We begin with a brief description of the industry. Next we discuss the theoretical specification of the model and the statistically estimated equations. We conclude with some example simulation results which provide additional evidence of the validity of the model for explaining the behavior of the tobacco industry over the period 1949 through 1966.

Researching the Migration of the Elderly Sources of Statistical Information

This article examines the major sources of statistical information for conducting research on the migration of the elderly. The discussion covers government statistical programs for the analysis of both migration flows and migrant characteristics. Special attention is devoted to the two most important sources of information the Census of Population and Housing and the Current Population Survey.

Household Migration Plans A Multivariate Probit Model

Migration is the principal component of demographic change in most states and local areas. Consequently, the methods used to estimate and project migration deserve special attention. Conventional estimation and projection procedures focus on individual movement and the number of moves that have already oc curred. Recent research on migrant behavior strongly suggests, however, that the appropriate unit of analysis in the migration decision is the household, not the individual, and that greater attention should be devoted to the study of intentions to migrate, rather than to the fact of migration. This paper presents a multivariate probit model of migrant behavior focusing on household migration plans. Probit analysis permits a more rigorous specification of the relation of demographic, economic, and social factors to the individual migration decision. Empirical findings are presented for an application of the model to a 1976 survey of 3,610 metropolitan Delaware households. Problems and procedures are also discussed surrounding the construction of probit models incorporating aggregate informa tion, an approach to model building considered potentially useful for planning and policy research.

Designing census public use samples for aging research

The author attempts to identify questions and issues relevant to the development of public use samples for aging research using U.S. census data. (ANNOTATION)