Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin

Combating Obesity through Healthy Eating Behavior: A Call for System Dynamics Optimization.

Poor eating behavior has been identified as one of the core contributory factors of the childhood obesity epidemic. The consequences of obesity on numerous aspects of life are thoroughly explored in the existing literature. For instance, evidence shows that obesity is linked to incidences of diseases such as heart disease, type-2 diabetes, and some cancers, as well as psychosocial problems. To respond to the increasing trends in the UK, in 2008 the government set a target to reverse the prevalence of obesity (POB) back to 2000 levels by 2020. This paper will outline the application of system dynamics (SD) optimization to simulate the effect of changes in the eating behavior of British children (aged 2 to 15 years) on weight and obesity. This study also will identify how long it will take to achieve the government’s target. This paper proposed a simulation model called Intervention Childhood Obesity Dynamics (ICOD) by focusing the interrelations between various strands of knowledge in one complex human weight regulation system. The model offers distinct insights into the dynamics by capturing the complex interdependencies from the causal loop and feedback structure, with the intention to better understand how eating behaviors influence children’s weight, body mass index (BMI), and POB measurement. This study proposed a set of equations that are revised from the original (baseline) equations. The new functions are constructed using a RAMP function of linear decrement in portion size and number of meal variables from 2013 until 2020 in order to achieve the 2020 desired target. Findings from the optimization analysis revealed that the 2020 target won’t be achieved until 2026 at the earliest, six years late. Thus, the model suggested that a longer period may be needed to significantly reduce obesity in this population.

Obesity prevention: Comparison of techniques and potential solution

Over the years, obesity prevention has been a broadly studied subject by both academicians and practitioners. It is one of the most serious public health issue as it can cause numerous chronic health and psychosocial problems. Research is needed to suggest a population-based strategy for obesity prevention. In the academic environment, the importance of obesity prevention has triggered various problem solving approaches. A good obesity prevention model, should comprehend and cater all complex and dynamics issues. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss the qualitative and quantitative approaches on obesity prevention study and to provide an extensive literature review on various recent modelling techniques for obesity prevention. Based on these literatures, the comparison of both quantitative and qualitative approahes are highlighted and the justification on the used of system dynamics technique to solve the population of obesity is discussed. Lastly, a potential framework solution based on sy...

Prioritizing the causes and correctors of smoking towards the solution of tobacco free future using enhanced analytic hierarchy process

This paper presents a method for prioritizing the causes and correctors of smoking habits in Malaysia. In order to identify the driving forces that causes (initiation factors) smoking habits and its correctors (anti-smoking strategies), a method called Enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (EAHP) is employed. The EAHP has advantages over normal Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on its capability to eliminate inconsistency (consistency ratio > 0.1) in evaluating expert’s judgment. Based on the Theory of Triadic Influence, the identified initiation factors were personal beliefs and values, personal psychological, family influence, psychosocial influence, culture and legislative. There are five anti-smoking strategies that have been implemented in Malaysia, namely packaging and labelling, pricing and taxation, advertising, smoke-free legislation and education and support. Findings from the study shows that psychosocial influence was considered as the initiation factor of smoking among Malaysian adults, an...

Analyzing the impact of price subsidy on rice self-sufficiency level in Malaysia: A preliminary finding

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia’s rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia in order to meet the growing demand of rice. In this paper, the effect of price support on the rice production system in Malaysia is investigated. This study utilizes the system dynamics approach of the rice production system in Malaysia where the complexity of the factor is interrelated and changed dynamically through time. Scenario analysis was conducted using system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy to see its effect on the rice production and rice SSL. The system dynamics model provides a framework for understanding the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. The scenario analysis of the model shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand ...

A system dynamics optimization framework to achieve population desired of average weight target

Obesity is becoming a serious problem in Malaysia as it has been rated as the highest among Asian countries. The aim of the paper is to propose a system dynamics (SD) optimization framework to achieve population desired weight target based on the changes in physical activity behavior and its association to weight and obesity. The system dynamics approach of stocks and flows diagram was used to quantitatively model the impact of both behavior on the population’s weight and obesity trends. This work seems to bring this idea together and highlighting the interdependence of the various aspects of eating and physical activity behavior on the complex of human weight regulation system. The model was used as an experimentation vehicle to investigate the impacts of changes in physical activity on weight and prevalence of obesity implications. This framework paper provides evidence on the usefulness of SD optimization as a strategic decision making approach to assist in decision making related to obesity prevention...

A modelling framework for mitigating customers’ waiting time at a vehicle inspection centre

In Malaysia, an agency that is entrusted by the Government to perform mandatory vehicle inspection for public, commercial and private vehicles, receive many customers daily. Often complaints of problems received from the customers are associated with waiting time that leads to lost of business and dissatisfied customers. To address this issue, we propose a framework for modelling a vehicle inspection system using an integration of simulation and optimization approaches. The strengths of simulation and optimization are reviewed briefly that is hoped to reveal the synergy between the established methods in determining an appropriate customer’s waiting time for inspection at a vehicle inspection centre. Relevant concepts and preliminary results are also presented and discussed in this paper.

Game theoretical framework in determining house prices

Housing is a vital component in world’s economic development as it provides big contribution of the wealth. The issue of high house prices, worrying several parties, especially middle income buyers in Malaysia. Basically, in housing, there are three main parties involved; buyer, property developer and government. Interaction between those parties will give an impact to the housing market, specifically house prices. The complexity of the interaction has increased due to the differences in each party’s preferences and interest. In this research, the main objective is to develop the framework of the interactions among those parties using game theoretical approach. To do so, the preferences and target of each party are investigated and their constraints are established. From the framework, it offers some ideas on how the interaction occurs and how it affect the house prices.

A Framework of Multi-method Modelling Using System Dynamics and Enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process Towards the Solution for Tobacco Endgame

Tobacco endgame is hotly debated worldwide as one of the effort by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) towards tobacco-free future. Tobacco epidemic involve dynamic interrelationships between multi-disciplinary elements. Hence, it become increasingly difficult to identify the root of the problem in order to solve the issues. System dynamics (SD) has been recognized with its ability to capture the flow and feedback as well as the dynamic relationships between components in a system under study. The holistic view offered by SD will portray the impact of anti-smoking strategies implementation. In order to identify the driving forces in tobacco epidemic, Enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (EAHP) has advantages over normal Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on its capability to eliminate inconsistency in prioritizing the driving forces in tobacco epidemic which is the initiation factors of smoking. SD and EAHP have different strengths and weaknesses, therefore, integrating both modelling approaches will provide more realistic projections of a tobacco control system. This paper uses SD and EAHP to model the complexity of the problem and to identify the dominant linkages between the initiation factors and anti-smoking strategies in assessing the effectiveness of anti-smoking strategies that have been implemented in Malaysia. We proposed a multi-method modelling framework that served as a basis in understanding the complexity of tobacco epidemic due to the interconnections of multiple elements that may range from qualitative to quantitative aspects. Also, we describe the potential benefits of integrating SD and EAHP in demonstrating the interaction between the smoking causes (initiation factors) and its corrector (anti-smoking strategies).

Strategic planning for MyRA performance: A causal loop diagram approach

The nexus of research and innovation in higher education are continually receiving worldwide priority attention. Hence, Malaysia has taken its move to enhance public universities as a center of excellence by introducing the status of Research University (RU). To inspire all universities towards becoming a research university, The Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE) had revised an assessment called Malaysian Research Assessment Instrument (MyRA) to evaluate the performance of existence RUs, and other potential higher education institutions. The available spreadsheet tool to access MyRA performance is inadequate to support strategic planning. Since, higher education management is a complex system, in which components and their interactions are ever changing over time, there is a need to for an efficient approach to investigate system behavior and devise research management policies for the benefit of the institution itself and the higher education system. In this paper, we proposed a system dynamics simulat...

A dynamic modelling framework towards the solution of reduction in smoking prevalence

This paper presents a hypothetical framework towards the solution for reduction in smoking prevalence in Malaysia. The framework is design to assist in decision making process related to reduction in smoking prevalence using SD and OCT. In general, this framework is developed using SD approach where OCT is embedded in the policy evaluation process. Smoking prevalence is one of the determinant which plays an important role in measuring a successful implementation of anti-smoking strategies. Therefore, it is critical to determine the optimal value of smoking prevalence in order to trim down the hazardous effects of smoking to society. Conversely, smoking problem becomes increasingly complex since many issues that ranged from behavioral to economical need to be considered simultaneously. Thus, a hypothetical framework of the control model embedded in the SD methodology is expected to obtain the minimum value of smoking prevalence which the output in turn will provide a guideline for tobacco researchers as we...