Norma B. Crosby

25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics

Shortly after the seminal paper “Self-Organized Criticality: An explanation of 1/fnoise” by Bak et al. (1987), the idea has been applied to solar physics, in “Avalanches and the Distribution of Solar Flares” by Lu and Hamilton (1991). In the following years, an inspiring cross-fertilization from complexity theory to solar and astrophysics took place, where the SOC concept was initially applied to solar flares, stellar flares, and magnetospheric substorms, and later extended to the radiation belt, the heliosphere, lunar craters, the asteroid belt, the Saturn ring, pulsar glitches, soft X-ray repeaters, blazars, black-hole objects, cosmic rays, and boson clouds. The application of SOC concepts has been performed by numerical cellular automaton simulations, by analytical calculations of statistical (powerlaw-like) distributions based on physical scaling laws, and by observational tests of theoretically predicted size distributions and waiting time distributions. Attempts have been undertaken to import physical models into the numerical SOC toy models, such as the discretization of magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) processes. The novel applications stimulated also vigorous debates about the discrimination between SOC models, SOC-like, and non-SOC processes, such as phase transitions, turbulence, random-walk diffusion, percolation, branching processes, network theory, chaos theory, fractality, multi-scale, and other complexity phenomena. We review SOC studies from the last 25 years and highlight new trends, open questions, and future challenges, as discussed during two recent ISSI workshops on this theme.

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agencys Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.

SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting

The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modeling system simulating the propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from locations near the Sun to any given location in the heliosphere to forecast the SEP flux profiles. Solar Particle Radiation SWx (SPARX) uses an innovative methodology that allows implementation within an operational framework to overcome the time constraints of test particle modeling of SEP profiles, allowing the production of near-real-time SEP nowcasts and forecasts, when paired with appropriate near-real-time triggers. SPARX has the capability to produce SEP forecasts within minutes of being triggered by observations of a solar eruptive event. The model is based on the test particle approach and is spatially 3-D, thus allowing for the possibility of transport in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. The model naturally includes the effects of perpendicular propagation due to drifts and drift-induced deceleration. The modeling framework and the way in which parameters of relevance for Space Weather forecasting are obtained are described. The first results from the modeling system are presented. These results demonstrate that corotation and drift of SEP streams play an important role in shaping SEP flux profiles.

Toward Interplanetary Space Weather: Strategies for Manned Missions to Mars

Analysis of the interplanetary space weather environment will contribute to reducing uncertainties and assuring crew radiation safety.

Interplanetary Space Weather and Its Planetary Connection

Interplanetary travel is not just a science fiction scenario anymore, but a goal as realistic as when our ancestors started to cross the oceans. With curiosity driving humans to visit other planets in our solar system, the understanding of interplanetary space weather is a vital subject today, particularly because the physical conditions faced during a space vehicles transit to its targeted solar system object are crucial to a missions success and vital to the health and safety of spacecraft crew, especially when scheduling planned extravehicular activities.

Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.

Major radiation environments in the heliosphere and their implications for interplanetary travel

This chapter has provided an introduction to the various particle environments that make up our heliosphere: galactic and anomalous cosmic rays, solar energetic particle events, particles accelerated by corotating interaction regions, interplanetary shocks, planetary bow-shocks, and geomagnetically trapped particles. The energy ranges of these particles extend from thermal to GeV, and the characteristics (temporal and spatial) of each population are unique. It is not possible to do justice concerning all the information that is available about these particle populations, and it is to hoped that this chapter will act as inspiration for the reader to consult the literature for more detailed information (see also Chapter 11).

Space weather: science and effects

From the point-of-view of somebody standing outside on a cold winter night looking up at a clear cloudless sky, the space environment seems to be of a peaceful and stable nature. Instead, the opposite is found to be true. In fact the space environment is very dynamic on all spatial and temporal scales, and in some circumstances may have unexpected and hazardous effects on technology and humans both in space and on Earth. In fact the space environment seems to have a weather all of its own – its own “space weather”. Our Sun is definitely the driver of our local space weather. Space weather is an interdisciplinary subject covering a vast number of technological, scientific, economic and environmental issues. It is an applicationoriented discipline which addresses the needs of “space weather product” users. It can be truly said that space weather affects everybody, either directly or indirectly. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of what space weather encompasses, emphasizing how solar-terrestrial physics is applied to space weather. Examples of “space weather product” users will be given highlighting those products that we as a civilization are most dependent on.

Services for Space Mission support within the ESA Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Service Network.

Spacecraft operations are by nature complex and every satellites operational environment poses a range of potential risks, often a unique combination for a given orbit. The implications of interruptions of operations, data transfer and service provision, are serious, both in terms of cost and capability, thus it is imperative to mitigate against all operational risks to the fullest extent possible. In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather Service Network to support end-users, in a wide range of affected sectors, in mitigating the effects of space weather on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. This service network is currently in a test and validation phase and encourages user engagement and feedback. The network is organised around five Expert Service Centres (ESCs) focusing on Solar Weather, Heliospheric Weather, Space Radiation Environment, Ionospheric Weather and Geomagnetic Conditions. Each ESC is connecting different expert groups, federating their space weather products, and ensuring the quality and consistency of the provided information. The service network also includes a central Data Centre and the SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC). In this presentation we give an overview of the current status of the network (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/), the targeted end-user groups and Expert Service Centres with a focus on the space community.

Five Centuries of Exploration: From Distant Shores to Distant Planets

Throughout time humans have been born with the curiosity to explore. Crossing the oceans on Earth to those in interplanetary space, the motivations behind exploration by humanity have not changed profoundly during these last five centuries. Some of the obstacles that were met by the explorers in the past and those that we will encounter in the future are similar, funding issues being one such topic. However, obstacles regarding the environmental conditions that will be encountered in interplanetary space are very different from those found on Earth. Indeed, the space weather that presides in interplanetary space is unlike anything we are familiar with in our daily lives. However, be it an ocean storm or a solar storm, the objective remains the same-to understand and protect the transportation device and the crew against the environment that it will encounter.