Norman C. Strong

THE PROFITABILITY OF MOMENTUM INVESTING

We test for the presence of momentum profits in the UK over the period 1977 to 1998. The analysis shows that significant momentum profits are present in both a comprehensive sample of UK stocks and an accounting sub-sample. An analysis of sub-period results, seasonal effects, and the persistence of momentum profits confirms the robustness of the results. Controlling for factors known to be associated with differences in average returns, such as size, stock price, book-to-market ratio, and cash earnings-to-price ratio, cannot explain momentum profits. We also confirm that serial correlation in common factors and delayed price reaction to common factor realisations cannot explain momentum profits. We conclude that the momentum effect derives from market underreaction to either industry- or firm-specific information and it is a significant, independent phenomenon in UK stock returns. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.

Earnings Management or Forecast Guidance to Meet Analyst Expectations

Abstract We examine whether UK firms engage in earnings management or forecast guidance to ensure that their reported earnings meet analyst earnings expectations. We explore two earnings management mechanisms: (a) positive abnormal working capital accruals; and (b) classification shifting of core expenses to non‐recurring items. We find no evidence of a positive association between income‐increasing, abnormal working capital accruals and the probability of meeting analyst forecasts. Instead we find evidence consistent with a subset of larger firms shifting small core expenses to other non‐recurring items to just hit analyst expectations with core earnings. We also find that the probability of meeting analyst expectations increases with downward‐guided forecasts. Overall our results suggest that UK firms are more likely to engage in earnings forecast guidance or, for a subset of larger firms, in classification shifting rather than in accruals management to avoid negative earnings surprises.

Does Valuation Model Choice Affect Target Price Accuracy

We investigate whether the choice of valuation model affects the forecast accuracy of the target prices that investment analysts issue in their equity research reports, controlling for factors that influence this choice. We examine 490 equity research reports from international investment houses for 94 UK-listed firms published over the period July 2002–June 2004. We use four measures of accuracy: (i) whether the target price is met during the 12-month forecast horizon (met_in); (ii) whether the target price is met on the last day of the 12-month forecast horizon (met_end); (iii) the absolute forecast error (abs_err); and (iv) the forecast error of target prices that are not met at the end of the 12-month forecast horizon (miss_err). Based on met_in and abs_err, price-to-earnings (PE) outperform discounted cash flow (DCF) models, while based on met_end and miss_err the difference in valuation model performance is insignificant. However, after controlling for variables that capture the difficulty of the valuation task, the performance of DCF models improves in all specifications and, based on miss_err, they outperform PE models. These findings are robust to standard controls for selection bias.

Post-earnings-announcement Drift: Some Preliminary Evidence for the UK

Abstract This paper tests for the presence of post-earnings-announcement drift on the London Stock Exchange using data for seven half-years for a constant sample of 206 quoted companies. Separate results are presented for interim and final earnings announcements and the results are disaggregated by firm size. Overall, we find evidence of significant drift for the earnings announcements of small firms but not for the announcements of large firms.

Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift in the UK

This paper fills a void in the market efficiency literature by testing for the presence of post–earnings–announcement drift in a non–US market. We test for drift using alternative earnings surprise measures based on: (i) the time–series of earnings; (ii) market prices; and (iii) analyst forecasts. Using each of the measures we find evidence of significant post–earnings–announcement drift, robust to alternative controls for risk and market microstructure effects. Using a one–dimensional analysis, the price–based measure of earnings surprise gives the strongest drift, and using a two–dimensional analysis the drift associated with the price–based measure almost subsumes drift associated with the other two measures. Our conclusion is that the UK stock market is inefficient with respect to publicly available corporate earnings information. This evidence provides out–of–sample confirmation of the post–earnings–announcement drift documented in the USA.

Earnings management around UK open offers

We examine the long run operating and stock price performance of UK open offer firms in the context of the earnings management hypothesis. We find that in the pre-offer period offer firms report significant improvements in their operating performance unrelated to cash flow performance. Results on return performance show that offer firms outperform various benchmarks in the pre-offer year but underperform up to four years after the offer. Regression results show that pre-offer discretionary current accruals predict the long-run post-offer return underperformance but do not predict the short-run reaction to SEO announcements. Our findings are more consistent with the earnings management hypothesis than with either the timing hypothesis or the managerial response hypothesis and suggest that investors do not take full account of the information available at the time of open offers.

The effect of corporate governance on earnings management around UK rights issues

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the relation between corporate governance and earnings management around UK rights issues. Design/methodology/approach - The paper examines the effect of board structure, ownership structure, adviser structure, and capital structure on discretionary current accruals – a proxy for earnings management – for a sample of size-controlled rights issuers. Rights issues are chosen as a context in which firms have particular incentives to manage earnings. Findings - The results suggest that firms with higher debt to equity ratios, with lower proportions of non-executive directors, or with no large block owner, are more likely to use discretionary current accruals to manipulate earnings around rights issues. Research limitations/implications - Similar research can be conducted around other equity issuing methods such as open offers and around other major corporate events such as initial public offerings. Practical implications - The papers evidence contributes to an understanding of corporate governance and has practical implications for stakeholders. It suggests that investors can rely more on the financial disclosures of firms with lower debt to equity ratios, higher proportions of outside directors, and with a large blockholder. Regulators may propose that firms undertaking corporate events such as equity offerings should follow best corporate governance practices to enhance investor confidence. Originality/value - This study is the first to investigate the corporate governance mechanisms in place to check opportunistic earnings management around specific corporate events for the UK market.

Pricing FTSE 100 Index Options under Stochastic Volatility

The autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity/generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH/GARCH) literature and studies of implied volatility clearly show that volatility changes over time. This article investigates the improvement in the pricing of Financial Times‐Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index options when stochastic volatility is taken into account. The major tool for this analysis is Heston’s (1993) stochastic volatility option pricing formula, which allows for systematic volatility risk and arbitrary correlation between underlying returns and volatility. The results reveal significant evidence of stochastic volatility implicit in option prices, suggesting that this phenomenon is essential to improving the performance of the Black–Scholes model (Black & Scholes, 1973) for FTSE 100 index options.

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure, SOX, and Other Analyst Regulations Reduce Security Mispricing?

Between 2000 and 2003 a series of disclosure and analyst regulations curbing abusive financial reporting and analyst behavior were enacted to strengthen the information environment of U.S. capital markets. We investigate whether these regulations reduced security mispricing and increased stock market efficiency. After the regulations, we find a significant reduction in short-term stock price continuation following analyst forecast revisions and earnings announcements. The effect was more pronounced among higher information uncertainty firms, where we expect security valuation to be most sensitive to regulation. Analyst forecast accuracy also improved in these firms, consistent with reduced mispricing being due to an improved corporate information environment following the regulations. Our findings are robust to controls for time trends, trading activity, the financial crisis, analyst coverage, delistings, and changes in information uncertainty proxies. We find no concurrent effect among European firms and a regression discontinuity design supports our identification of a regulatory effect.

The Relation between Returns and Earnings: Evidence for the UK

Abstract This paper presents an empirical study of the explanatory power of annual earnings figures for annual stock returns using UK data. The analysis is performed on a sample of companies, with varying year-ends, over the period 1969–1990. The research exploits Ohlsons recent theoretical contributions to the study of the valuation relevance of accounting information, and it complements a study by Easton and Harris (1991) on US data. Similar to the results of Easton and Harris, the results for the UK provide consistent evidence that both earnings levels and earnings differences have significant explanatory power for security returns. However, unlike Easton and Harris, the evidence from individual year regressions suggests that changes in earnings rather than the level of earnings may be more important in explaining security returns in the UK.