Norman Donaldson

On the Use of Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models at Regional Scale

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to present the possibilities offered by coupled atmospheric and hydrologic models as a new tool to validate and interpret results produced by atmospheric models. The advantages offered by streamflow observations are different from those offered by conventional precipitation observations. The dependence between basins and sub-basins can be very useful, and the integrating effect of the large basins facilitates the evaluation of stateof-the-art atmospheric models by filtering out some of the spatial and temporal variability that complicate the point-by-point verifications that are more commonly used. The streamflow predicted by the coupled atmospheric-hydrologic model versus the measured streamflow is sufficiently sensitive to clearly assess atmospheric model improvements resulting from increasing horizontal resolution and altering the treatment of precipitation processes in the model. A case study for several southern Ontario river basins is presented with the Watflood hydrologic model developed at the University of Waterloo. It is passively coupled to a nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model (mc2) that is integrated 318 HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS at horizontal resolutions of 35, 10 and 3 km. The Watflood model is also driven by radar derived precipitation amounts from King City Radar observations. It is demonstrated that the hydrological model is sufficiently sensitive and accurate to diagnose model and radar errors. This tool brings an additional degree of verification that will be very important in the improvement of technologies associated with atmospheric models, radar observations and the water resources management.

Lake Breezes in Southern Ontario and Their Relation to Tornado Climatology

Abstract Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery is used to demonstrate the development of lake-breeze boundaries in southern Ontario under different synoptic conditions. The orientation of the gradient wind with respect to the shorelines is important in determining the location of such lines. When moderate winds (5–10 m s−1) are parallel to straight sections of coastlines, cloud lines can extend well inland. In the region between Lakes Huron and Erie lake-breeze lines merge frequently, sometimes resulting in long-lasting stationary storms and attendant heavy rain and flooding. The influence of the lakes is apparent in the tornado climatology for the region: tornadoes appear to be suppressed in regions visited by lake-modified air and enhanced in regions favored by lake-breeze convergence lines. The cloud patterns in the case of a cold front interacting with merging lake-breeze boundaries are shown to be similar to those on a major tornado outbreak day. Two of the cases discussed ...

Microphysical characteristics through the melting region of a midlatitude winter storm

Abstract The microphysical characteristics of a precipitation type transition region within a midlatitude winter storm are discussed in relation to the background thermodynamic and kinematic fields. A deep region in which the temperature was close to 0°C (the transition region) was observed along the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia. This transition region was approximately 30 km wide and about 2 km deep. At 80 kPa, a large horizontal temperature gradient marked the boundary between the transition region and the colder air. The observed thermal structure is linked to diabatic processes, and in particular, to the freezing of small droplets, the refreezing of semi-melted particles and the melting of precipitation. Large, partially melted aggregates were located just downwind of the deep transition region. Particle trajectories near the transition region are very sensitive to the background temperature and wind fields and may lead to regions of reduced and enhanced concentrations at the surface and aloft. A...

On the nature of rapidly deepening Canadian East Coast winter storms

Abstract During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) field project from 15 January to 15 March 1986, seven storms underwent rapid deepening either within or adjacent to the observational network. The most rapid deepening phase of these storms was associated with the surface low‐pressure centre being located close to to the rain‐snow boundary and the end of this phase was associated with the low centre eventually moving to sub‐freezing surface temperatures. Precipitation bands of both rain and snow occurred during maximum deepening. Observations are consistent with divergence and subsidence occurring near the centre itself. It is suggested that a mesoscale circulation initiated by melting snow significantly affects the deepening process.

Improved detection using negative elevation angles for mountaintop WSR-88Ds. Part III Simulations of shallow convective activity over and around lake ontario

Abstract During the winter, lake-effect snowstorms that form over Lake Ontario represent a significant weather hazard for the populace around the lake. These storms, which typically are only 2 km deep, frequently can produce narrow swaths (20–50 km wide) of heavy snowfall (2–5 cm h−1 or more) that extend 50–75 km inland over populated areas. Subtle changes in the low-altitude flow direction can mean the difference between accumulations that last for 1–2 h and accumulations that last 24 h or more at a given location. Therefore, it is vital that radars surrounding the lake are able to detect the presence and strength of these shallow storms. Starting in 2002, the Canadian operational radars on the northern side of the lake at King City, Ontario, and Franktown, Ontario, began using elevation angles of as low as −0.1° and 0.0°, respectively, during the winter to more accurately estimate snowfall rates at the surface. Meanwhile, Weather Surveillance Radars-1988 Doppler in New York State on the southern and eas...

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation from a C-Band Dual-Polarized Radar for the 8 July 2013 Flood in Toronto, Canada

AbstractA heavy rainfall event over a 2-h period on 8 July 2013 caused significant flash flooding in the city of Toronto and produced 126 mm of rain accumulation at a gauge located near the Toronto Pearson International Airport. This paper evaluates the quantitative precipitation estimates from the nearby King City C-band dual-polarized radar (WKR). Horizontal reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR were corrected for attenuation using a modified ZPHI rain profiling algorithm, and rain rates R were calculated from R(Z) and R(Z, ZDR) algorithms. Specific differential phase KDP was used to compute rain rates from three R(KDP) algorithms, one modified to use positive and negative KDP, and an R(KDP, ZDR) algorithm. Additionally, specific attenuation at horizontal polarization A was used to calculate rates from the R(A) algorithm. High-temporal-resolution rain gauge data at 44 locations measured the surface rainfall every 5 min and produced total rainfall accumulations over the affected area. The near...

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great pro...

Decision Making Regarding Aircraft De-Icing and In-Flight Icing Using the Canadian Airport Nowcasting System (CAN-Now)

The Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project (CAN-Now) has developed an advanced prototype all-season weather forecasting and nowcasting system that can be used at major airports. This system uses numerical model data, pilot reports, ground in-situ sensor observations (precipitation, icing, ceiling, visibility, winds, etc), on-site remote sensing (such as vertically pointing radar and microwave radiometer) and off-site remote sensing (satellite and radar) information to provide detailed nowcasts out to approximately 6 hours. The nowcasts, or short term weather forecasts, should allow decision makers at airports such as pilots, dispatchers, deicing crews, ground personnel or air traffic controllers to make plans with increased margins of safety and improved efficiency. The system is being developed and tested at Toronto Pearson International Airport (CYYZ) and Vancouver International Airport (CYVR). A Situation Chart has been developed to allow users to have a high glance value product which identifies significant weather related problems at the airport. Some new products combining observations and numerical model output into nowcasts are being tested. This talk will describe the uses of the system for decisions regarding aircraft de-icing at the ground and in-flight icing over the airport. Some statistical verifications of forecast products regarding precipitation amount, precipitation type, in-flight icing, etc, will be given.

An Overview of Surface-Based Precipitation Observations at Environment and Climate Change Canada

ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the present status and procedures related to surface precipitation observations at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). This work was done to support the ongoing renewal of observation systems and networks at the Meteorological Service of Canada. The paper focusses on selected parameters, namely, accumulated precipitation, precipitation intensity, precipitation type, rainfall, snowfall, and radar reflectivity. Application-specific user needs and requirements are defined and captured by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Teams at the international level by Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review (OSCAR) and WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), and by ECCC user engagement initiatives within the Canadian context. The precipitation-related networks of ECCC are separated into those containing automatic instruments, those with human (manual) observers, and the radar network. The unique characteristics and data flow for each of these networks, the instrument and installation characteristics, processing steps, and limitations from observation to data distribution and storage are provided. A summary of precipitation instrument-dependent algorithms that are used in ECCCs Data Management System is provided. One outcome of the analysis is the identification of gaps in spatial coverage and data quality that are required to meet user needs. Increased availability of data, including from long-serving manual sites, and an increase in the availability of precipitation type and snowfall amount are identified as improvements that would benefit many users. Other recognized improvements for in situ networks include standardized network procedures, instrument performance adjustments, and improved and sustained access to data and metadata from internal and external networks. Specific to radar, a number of items are recognized that can improve quantitative precipitation estimates. Increased coverage for the radar network and improved methods for assessing and portraying radar data quality would benefit precipitation users.

Airport Vicinity Icing and Snow Advisor (AVISA)

An Airport Vicinity Icing and Snow Advisor (AVISA) was tested using observations from the Alliance Icing Research Study II (AIRS II), conducted in the Ottawa-Mirabel area from 3 November 2003 to 12 February 2004. The AVISA Nowcasting system is designed to help provide decision makers (airport authorities, airline dispatch, ground de-icing crews, pilots, etc) with real-time, accurate, and up-to-date weather information to help alleviate problems and to increase safety. This system uses numerical model data, pilot reports, ground sensor data (precipitation, ceiling, visibility, winds, etc) as well as remote sensing (satellite, radar, radiometer) information to provide the necessary Nowcasts out to approximately 6 hours. The AIRS II project involved 5 research aircraft and several airport Nowcasting systems installed at Mirabel. The limitations and strengths of some of the AVISA component inputs (e.g. model data, radar, radiometric, precipitation rate) are discussed using experiences from AIRS II. Illustrations are given of some of the displays currently being developed. Plans for future work are described.