Nuno Carlos Leitão

A Panel Data Modelling of International Tourism Demand: Evidences for Romania

Abstract This paper analysis the determinants of international tourism demand for Romania and it quantifies their influences. The authors elaborate two models, a fixed-effects model and the Tobit model, to estimate tourist inflow data from twenty-three European countries, for the period 1997-2008. In the fixed effects static panel model, we find that GDP per capita, bilateral trade, population, prices are the main determinants of tourism flows to Romania. For the Tobit model, all the variables taken into consideration, GDP per capita, bilateral trade, population, geographical distance, prices are influencing the international tourism demand. Both models indicate that trade, population, and income are more important determinants than relative prices or geographical distance between Romania and countries of origin.

Immigration and trade

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between intra-industry trade (IIT), horizontal IIT, vertical IIT (VIIT) and immigration flows using a gravity model for the period 1995-2008 amongst Portugal and European Union’s Member States (EU-27). Using a panel data approach, the results show a positive correlation between immigration and IIT. These outcomes indicate that the immigration can reduce transaction costs between home and host country. We also consider the economic dimension which appears to exercise a positive effect on trade. Our research confirms the hypothesis that there is a negative effect of transportation costs on trade.

Fragmentation in the automobile manufacturing industry: evidence from Portugal

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the determinants of vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) in the automobile components industry between Portugal and the European Union 27 (EU-27) and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) during the period 1995-2006. Design/methodology/approach - The paper formulates some theoretical hypotheses that may explain the fragmentation of the production in the automobile industry. These hypotheses are tested using a dynamic panel data analysis. The estimates are more reliable because the instruments used control for the potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables. Findings - The results indicate that VIIT is a positive function of the difference in per-capita GDP between Portugal and its trading partners, confirming the Linder hypothesis. Moreover, there is statistical evidence that geographical distance influences negatively this type of VIIT between Portugal and the EU-27 only. The results do not confirm the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between differences in endowments and VIIT in the automobile components sector. Originality/value - This paper confirms some relevant theoretical hypotheses on the causes of the fragmentation/outsourcing. The good results obtained with the Arellano and Bond GMM system estimator suggest that the building of dynamic theoretical models will be of interest to academic researchers in fragmentation theory.

The determinants of international tourism demand for Brazil

The aim of this article is to identify the main determinants of international tourism flows to Brazil during the period 2004–2013, using the gravity model. The study adopted an econometric strategy of panel data (pooled ordinary least squares estimators that were heteroscedasticity corrected—together with the generalized method of moments system estimator). The variables of a common border and geographical distance showed that proximity was essential to explain tourism demand for Brazil. The exchange rate was positively correlated with tourism demand. The results indicate that the “Aquarela Plan 2020,” developed by the Ministry of Tourism for promotion of the country abroad, is consistent with the main determinants of international tourism demands for Brazil.

UNITED STATES’ INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE

Abstract The main objective of this manuscript is to explain the horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of United States with trade partner of NAFTA, European Union and ASEAN. Identify the determinants of intra-industry trade, horizontal and vertical. Using a panel data approach, the results show a negative correlation between endowments and intra-industry trade. These results indicate that intra-industry trade occurs more frequently among countries that are similar in terms of factor endowments. The findings support the theory that, in general, there is no positive statistical association between HIIT and HO variables. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that trade increases if the transportation costs decrease.

Industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry trade: the case of EU new member states’ agri-food sector

Abstract The determinants of intra-industry agri-food trade are analysed to only a limited extent in the literature. This article investigates the industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member states of the EU and the other EU countries for the period 1999–2010 by applying a dynamic panel data model. Results suggest that IIT is mainly low vertical in nature, suggesting regional export of low-quality products to EU markets. Results also show that vertical product differentiation and FDI are positively related to VIIT, suggesting that quality growth and investments foster vertical intra-industry trade. As to productivity and factor endowments a negative relationship with VIIT was found, implying the labour abundant and similar nature of NMS agricultural sectors.

Determinants of United States’ Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade

Abstract This paper investigates bilateral intra-industry trade between the United States and its major trading partners over the period 1995–2008. Intra-industry trade (IIT) is decomposed into horizontal (HIIT) and vertical (VIIT) components. HIIT dominates the total two-way trade of the United States and its share relative to VIIT has been rising over time, particularly with neighbouring trade partners and with China. Using pooled panel data, country-level determinants of IIT, HIIT and VIIT are investigated. The results, overall, tend to conform with a priori expectations and provide empirical support for a number of propositions suggested by theory. Findings indicate that the relative similarity of the economies of trading partners, their geographical proximity, FDI and overall market size are important influences on bilateral HIIT flows for the United States. VIIT, on the other hand, is found to be driven in large part by economic differences between partners as well as the market size and closeness of trading partners.

Intra-industry trade in the medical and optical instruments industry: a panel data analysis

Abstract This paper analyses the determinants of intraindustry trade (IIT) in the Portuguese medical and optical sector using a static and dynamic panel data analysis. The results suggest that IIT in medical and optical instruments occurs more frequently among countries that are similar in terms of relative factor endowments and are members of the same regional integration agreement. Moreover, this trade increases if the partners are geographically close.

Marginal intra-industry trade and adjustment costs: The Australian experience

The objective of this research is to investigate labour market adjustment associated with changes in Australia’s trade pattern over the period 1992-2000. Specifically the focus is on the so-called smooth adjustment hypothesis (SAH) which posits that, compared with inter-industry trade, intra-industry trade (IIT) expansion is associated with relatively lower factor adjustment costs. A dynamic panel data approach (GMM-System) is employed. We find that there is a negative correlation between changes in employment and increased IIT. This result provides support for the SAH. Given the rise in IIT as a proportion of Australia’s overall trade during the period under review, the adjustment in labour markets stemming from trade liberalisation at that time is likely to have been less than otherwise expected.

Marginal intra- industry trade and country characteristics

This study examines the marginal intra-industry trade (MIIT) and its components horizontally, and marginal vertical intra-industry trade (MVIIT) applied to the United States. We present an alternative methodology to evaluate marginal intra-industry trade (MIIT) which was presented by Thom and McDowell (1999) and Azhar and Elliot (2008). Using a panel data approach, the results show a negative correlation between endowments and marginal intra-industry trade. These results indicate that marginal intra-industry trade occurs more frequently among countries that have similar demand. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that trade increases if the transportation costs decrease.