Nurul Alam

Cause-specific mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE To provide internationally comparable data on the frequencies of different causes of death. METHODS We analysed verbal autopsies obtained during 1999 -2002 from 12 demographic surveillance sites in sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh to find cause-specific and age-specific mortality rates. The cause-of-death codes used by the sites were harmonized to conform to the ICD-10 system, and summarized with the classification system of the Global Burden of Disease 2000 (Version 2). FINDINGS Causes of death in the African sites differ strongly from those in Bangladesh, where there is some evidence of a health transition from communicable to noncommunicable diseases, and little malaria. HIV dominates in causes of mortality in the South African sites, which contrast with those in highly malaria endemic sites elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa (even in neighbouring Mozambique). The contributions of measles and diarrhoeal diseases to mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are lower than has been previously suggested, while malaria is of relatively greater importance. CONCLUSION The different patterns of mortality we identified may be a result of recent changes in the availability and effectiveness of health interventions against childhood cluster diseases.

Epidemiological Transition in Rural Bangladesh, 1986-2006

Background: For understanding epidemiological transition, Health and Demographic Surveillance System plays an important role in developing and resource-constraint setup where accurate information on vital events (e.g. births, deaths) and cause of death is not available. Methods: This study aimed to assess existing level and trend of causes of 18,917 deaths in Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh, during 1986–2006 and to project future scenarios for selected major causes of death. Results: The results demonstrated that Matlab experienced a massive change in the mortality profile from acute, infectious, and parasitic diseases to non-communicable, degenerative, and chronic diseases during the last 20 years. It also showed that over the period 1986–2006, age-standardized mortality rate (for both sexes) due to diarrhea and dysentery reduced by 86%, respiratory infections by 79%, except for tuberculosis which increased by 173%. On the other hand, during the same period, mortality due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased by a massive 3,527% and malignant neoplasms by 495%, whereas mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and injury remained in the similar level (12–13% increase). Conclusion: The trend of selected causes of death demonstrates that in next two decades, deaths due to communicable diseases will decline substantially and the mortality due to will non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increase at massive proportions. Despite Matlabs significant advances in socio-demographic indicators, emergence of NCDs and mortality associated with it would be the major cause for concern in the coming years.

Birth spacing and infant and early childhood mortality in a high fertility area of Bangladesh: age-dependent and interactive effects

To examine the effects of birth spacing on early childhood mortality, 3729 singleton births in 1983-84 were followed for 3 years in rural Bangladesh. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess whether the survival of older siblings modifies the effect of preceding birth intervals and to see if the effects of preceding and succeeding birth intervals are inter-related, controlling for the effects of sex of the child, mothers age and household economic status. With the exception of the neonatal period, birth spacing effects were highly significant. A preceding birth interval of < 15 months was associated with a greater mortality risk in the post-neonatal period for children with an older sibling who survived infancy. However, a short preceding birth interval did not adversely affect post-neonatal mortality if the older sibling died in infancy. Neonatal and post-neonatal deaths were higher if older siblings had died in respective age intervals. A pregnancy interval of < 12 months after childbirth raised the risk of death at ages 1-2 years considerably if the child was born after a short birth interval (< 15 months). The results suggest that the high mortality risks of closely spaced children are due to sibling competition for parental resources.

Sustained effects of the 1974-5 famine on infant and child mortality in a rural area of Bangladesh.

In this paper the sustained effects of the 1974–75 famine on cohort mortality in a rural area of Bangladesh are studied. In the analysis, mortality rates for children born and conceived during the famine are compared with those from a post-famine cohort. In the famine-born cohort, mortality was higher during the first and second years of life, while in the famine-conceived cohort it was higher during the first year and lower during the second compared to the non-famine cohort. No significant differences in mortality by cohort were observed between the ages of 24 and 59 months. Using logistic regression, interactions between famine and socio-demographic characteristics were also studied. Three principal results emerged: first, a differential effect of the famine by socio-economic group was only present during the post-neonatal period for the famine-born cohort; secondly, children aged 12–23 months who were born to younger mothers were more adversely affected by the famine than those born to older mothers; ...

Causal Relationship of Helicobacter pylori With Iron-Deficiency Anemia or Failure of Iron Supplementation in Children

BACKGROUND & AIMS We investigated Helicobacter pylori (H pylori)-infection as a cause of iron deficiency (ID) and iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) or treatment failure of iron supplementation. METHODS We randomized 200 Hp-infected children (positive urea breath test) 2-5 years of age with IDA (hemoglobin level <110 g/L; serum ferritin level <12 microg/L; and soluble transferrin receptor >8.3 mg/L) or ID (serum ferritin level <12 microg/L or soluble transferrin receptor level >8.3 mg/L) to 1 of 4 regimens: 2-week anti-Hp therapy (amoxicillin, clarithromycin, and omeprazole) plus 90-day oral ferrous sulfate (anti-Hp plus iron), 2-week anti-Hp therapy alone, 90-day oral iron alone, or placebo. Sixty noninfected children with IDA received iron treatment as negative control. RESULTS Hp-infected children receiving iron had significantly less frequent treatment failure compared with those with no iron in correcting IDA (11% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2%-20%] for anti-Hp plus iron, 0% for iron alone vs 33% [95% CI, 26%-46%] for anti-Hp and 45% [95% CI, 31%-59%] for placebo; chi(2) = 127; P < .0001), ID (19% [95% CI, 8%-30%] for anti-Hp plus iron, 7% [95% CI, 0%-14%] for iron alone vs 65% [95% CI, 52%-78%] for anti-Hp alone, and 78% [95% CI, 66%-90%] for placebo; chi(2) = 124; P < .0001), or anemia (34% [95% CI, 20%-40%] for anti-Hp plus iron, 27% [95% CI, 14%-40%] for iron alone vs 65% [95% CI, 52%-78%] for anti-Hp alone and 78% [95% CI, 66%-90%] for placebo; chi(2) = 46; P < .0001). Cure rates of IDA, ID, or anemia with iron were comparable with that of the negative control group. Improvements in iron status also were significantly greater in groups with iron. CONCLUSIONS H pylori is neither a cause of IDA/ID nor a reason for treatment failure of iron supplementation in young Bangladeshi children.

Cause-specific childhood mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Background Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns. Design Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death. Results A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths. Conclusions This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.Background Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns. Design Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death. Results A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths. Conclusions This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.

Trends in stillbirths, early and late neonatal mortality in rural Bangladesh: the role of public health interventions

Trends were examined in a cohort study of stillbirths and early and late neonatal deaths in Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh between 1975 and 2002, using routinely collected demographic surveillance data. Main outcome measures were stillbirths per 1000 births, early neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths, and late neonatal deaths per 1000 children surviving after 1 week. We performed a logistic regression examining trends over time and between two areas in the three outcome measures, controlling for the effects of parental education, religion, time, geography, parity, maternal age and birth spacing. There was a marked decline in stillbirths, early and late neonatal mortality over time in both areas, though the pace of decline was somewhat faster in the ICDDR,B (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh) service area. Stillbirths declined by 24% overall in the ICDDR,B service area (crude OR comparing 1996-2002 with 1975-81: 0.76 [95% CI 0.68, 0.84]), compared with 15% in the Government service area (crude OR comparing 1996-2002 with 1975-81: 0.85 [0.76, 0.94]). The overall reduction in early and late neonatal mortality comparing the same periods was 39% and 73%, respectively, in the ICDDR,B area, compared with 30% and 63%, respectively, in the Government service area. Adjusting for socio-economic or demographic factors did not substantially alter the time or area differentials. The dramatic decline in neonatal mortality was, in large part, due to a fall in deaths from neonatal tetanus. The pace of decline was faster in the area receiving intense maternal and child health and family planning interventions, but stillbirths, early and late neonatal deaths also declined in the area not receiving such intense attention, suggesting that factors outside the formal health sector play an important role.

Randomised double blind trial of single dose doxycycline for treating cholera in adults.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the efficacy of a single dose of doxycycline (200 or 300 mg) with the standard multiple doses of tetracycline in patients with cholera. DESIGN--Randomised double blind controlled trial. Patients were given a single 200 mg dose of doxycycline, a single 300 mg dose of doxycycline, or multiple doses of tetracycline (500 mg, six hourly intervals). SETTING--Hospital in Bangladesh treating diarrhoea. PATIENTS--261 Patients aged over 15 admitted to the hospital with severe dehydration due to acute watery diarrhoea associated with Vibrio cholerae. All vibrios isolated from the stools and rectal swabs of patients, including those patients with prolonged excretion of vibrios, were sensitive to tetracycline. The stools of all patients at admission were negative for shigella and salmonella. INTERVENTIONS--All patients received rapid intravenous acetate solution for the first four hours after admission to hospital. They were then entered in the study and randomised. Oral rehydration was started immediately after the intravenous treatment. If signs of severe dehydration reappeared during oral treatment patients were given rapid intravenous acetate solution until dehydration was fully corrected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Stool output in first 24 hours and till diarrhoea stopped, total intake of oral rehydration fluid, duration of diarrhoea, and excretion of vibrio after receiving antibiotic treatment. RESULTS--The median stool outputs during the first 24 hours (275 ml/kg body weight) and till diarrhoea stopped (296 ml/kg body weight) were significantly higher in patients receiving 200 mg doxycycline as a single dose than in patients receiving either standard tetracycline (242 ml/kg body weight and 254 ml/kg body weight) or 300 mg doxycycline (226 ml/kg body weight and 255 ml/kg body weight). Similarly, median consumption of oral rehydration solution (18.45 l) was significantly higher in patients receiving 200 mg doxycycline than in patients receiving either 300 mg doxycycline (16.10 l) or standard tetracycline (14.80 l). Almost equal numbers of patients in each group required unscheduled intravenous acetate solution to correct dehydration during antibiotic treatment. Patients treated with doxycycline (low or high dose), however, had more prolonged excretion of bacteria. CONCLUSIONS--A single 300 mg dose of doxycycline is as effective as the standard multiple dose tetracycline treatment for cholera in terms of stool output, duration of diarrhoea, vomiting, and requirement for oral rehydration solution.

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

Background As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. Objective To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Design Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. Results The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Conclusions Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.Background As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. Objective To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Design Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. Results The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Conclusions Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organizations Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organizations Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15-64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15-64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.