Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Liquidity Commonality in Commodities

We examine liquidity commonality in commodity futures markets. Using data from 16 agricultural, energy, industrial metal, precious metal, and livestock commodities, we show there is a strong systematic liquidity factor in commodities. Liquidity commonality was present in 1997–2003 when commodity prices were relatively stable and during the recent boom. There is some support for both “supply-side” and “demand-side” explanations for this commonality. We find no evidence of a consistent link between stock and commodity liquidity in general. Energy commodities appear to provide a better hedge against equity market liquidity risk than the other commodity families.

Liquidity Measurement in Frontier Markets

Frontier markets which are countries that have not yet reached emerging market status, have been shown to provide diversification benefits for international investors. However, many stocks in these markets are thinly traded so liquidity is an important consideration. We investigate which liquidity proxies best measure the actual cost of trading in 19 frontier markets that can be accessed by foreign investors. We find the Gibbs, Amihud, and Amivest proxies have the largest correlation with liquidity benchmarks, while the FHT measure provides the best measure of the magnitude of actual transaction costs.

Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: a cross country analysis

Empirical evidences regarding the association of idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns are inconsistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which implies that idiosyncratic risk should not be priced because it would be fully eliminated through diversification. Using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) estimated conditional idiosyncratic volatility of individual stocks across 36 countries from 1973 to 2007, we find that idiosyncratic risk is priced on a significantly positive risk premium for stock returns. The evidence is statistically and economically significant. It overwhelmingly supports the prediction of existing theories that idiosyncratic risk is positively related to expected returns.

Frontier market transaction costs and diversification

Frontier markets, sometimes referred to as “emerging emerging markets,” have high transaction costs so investors who rebalance their portfolios monthly do not receive diversification benefits. Rebalancing every three months or longer, however, leads to diversification gains. Diversification benefits are larger in time periods with lower transaction costs and this is linked to risk aversion. Higher risk aversion results in larger transaction costs and larger return correlations between the United States and frontier markets. There is no cross-country relation between diversification benefits and transaction costs or development. Our results are based on comprehensive measures of transaction costs for 19 frontier markets.

Holding periods, illiquidity and disposition effect in the Chinese stock markets

This article examines the relation between average holding periods, stock illiquidity and investors’ disposition effects in the Chinese stock markets between 1996 and 2003. The results show that Chinese investors’ holding periods are longer for illiquid stocks and are inversely associated with past stock returns. Both relations are prevalent in the Shanghai and the Shenzhen A-share stock markets, which are dominated by individual investors. Nonetheless, relatively weak evidence is found in regards to the disposition effect in the B-shares markets, which are dominated by institutional investors.

Order imbalance, market returns and volatility: evidence from Thailand during the Asian crisis

This article examines the interaction between order imbalance, stock returns, volatility and volume dynamics during Asian financial crisis using intraday data of 418 stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from January 1996 to October 2003. The inverse relationship between the past 30-min interval order imbalance and current stock return in both pre- and post-devaluation of baht indicates that aggregate investors are contrarians. During the currency crisis, aggregate investors are less contrarian compared to the pre-devaluation period. Moreover, excess sell orders have a stronger impact to future return than to the excess buy orders. During the financial crisis, future stock returns are sensitive to an increase in current excess sell orders, but are insensitive to the current excess buy orders. In addition to the positive volume–volatility relation, the influence of order imbalance to volatility is much weaker after controlling for the level of stock returns.

Return Predictability Revisited

Monthly stock market returns are predictable when we refine the observation intervals of the variables used to predict these returns. Contrary to other predictability studies we find high out-of-sample adjusted R2s of up to 7% using economically important commodity returns. Shorter intervals reveal predictability consistent with near efficient markets based on price changes in industrial metals. More historical intervals expose predictability consistent with gradual information diffusion based on energy series. This predictability is robust to data mining adjustment, the inclusion of control (including economic) variables, and unrelated to time-varying risk. Inflation explains part of this predictability, but not all.

Time series momentum and moving average trading rules

We compare and contrast time series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules so as to better understand the sources of their profitability. These rules are closely related; however, there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors, yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.

Is there momentum or reversal in weekly currency returns

We investigate whether momentum or reversal is the dominant phenomenon in short horizon (one- to four-week) foreign exchange rate returns. We find, based on a broad sample of 63 emerging and developed market currencies, evidence of momentum rather than reversal. Momentum strategy returns are as large as 8% p.a. The short-term momentum effect appears to be robust. Returns are larger in the earlier sub-period but still exist in the more recent period. The strategies are also profitable when the USD is appreciating or depreciating but they perform better in business cycle expansions.

Time-Series Momentum versus Moving Average Trading Rules

Time-series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules are closely related; however there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.