Nw Young

Breakup and conditions for stability of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica

The breakup of ice shelves has been widely regarded as an indicator of climate change, with observations around the Antarctic Peninsula having shown a pattern of gradual retreat, associated with regional atmospheric warming and increased summer melt and fracturing processes. The rapid collapse of the northernmost section of the Larsen Ice Shelf (Larsen A), over a few days in January 1995, indicated that, after retreat beyond a critical limit, ice shelves may disintegrate rapidly. Here we use a finite-element numerical model that treats ice as a continuum without fracture to examine the breakup history between 1986 and 1997 of the two northern sections of Larsen Ice Shelf (Larsen A and Larsen B), from which we establish stability criteria for ice shelves. Analysis of various ice-shelf configurations reveals characteristic patterns in the strain rates near the ice front which we use to describe the stability of the ice shelf. On Larsen A, only the initial and final ice-front configurations show a stable pattern. Larsen B at present exhibits a stable pattern, but if the ice front were to retreat by a further few kilometres, it too is likely to enter an irreversible retreat phase.

A dynamic early East Antarctic Ice Sheet suggested by ice-covered fjord landscapes

The first Cenozoic ice sheets initiated in Antarctica from the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains and other highlands as a result of rapid global cooling ∼34 million years ago. In the subsequent 20 million years, at a time of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and an evolving Antarctic circumpolar current, sedimentary sequence interpretation and numerical modelling suggest that cyclical periods of ice-sheet expansion to the continental margin, followed by retreat to the subglacial highlands, occurred up to thirty times. These fluctuations were paced by orbital changes and were a major influence on global sea levels. Ice-sheet models show that the nature of such oscillations is critically dependent on the pattern and extent of Antarctic topographic lowlands. Here we show that the basal topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica, at present overlain by 2–4.5 km of ice, is characterized by a series of well-defined topographic channels within a mountain block landscape. The identification of this fjord landscape, based on new data from ice-penetrating radar, provides an improved understanding of the topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin and its surroundings, and reveals a complex surface sculpted by a succession of ice-sheet configurations substantially different from today’s. At different stages during its fluctuations, the edge of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet lay pinned along the margins of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, the upland boundaries of which are currently above sea level and the deepest parts of which are more than 1 km below sea level. Although the timing of the channel incision remains uncertain, our results suggest that the fjord landscape was carved by at least two iceflow regimes of different scales and directions, each of which would have over-deepened existing topographic depressions, reversing valley floor slopes.

Distribution of marine ice beneath the Amery Ice Shelf

We present a map of the marine ice accreted to the base of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS), East Antarctica. This map is obtained by converting a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the AIS generated from satellite radar altimeter data to an ice thickness map, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, and subtracting from that a second ice thickness map, derived from airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) measurements. The RES signal does not penetrate the marine ice, so the measurement is only to the meteoric-marine ice boundary, and therefore the difference between the two maps is the marine ice thickness. The marine ice is up to 190 m thick and accounts for about 9% of the shelf volume. It is concentrated in the northwest of the shelf, a result of the clockwise ocean circulation in the cavity below.

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Nepals quake-driven landslide hazards Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal et al. used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart et al. show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepals second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions. Science, this issue p. 10.1126/science.aac8353; see also p. 147 Satellite imaging isolated hazard potential for earthquake-triggered landslides after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. INTRODUCTION On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha earthquake [magnitude (M) 7.8] struck Nepal, followed by five aftershocks of ≥M 6.0 until 10 June 2015. The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 550 by 200 km region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Some mountain villages were completely destroyed, and the remote locations, blocked roads, and landslide-dammed rivers prevented ground access to many areas. RATIONALE Our “Volunteer Group” of scientists from nine nations, motivated by humanitarian needs, focused on satellite-based systematic mapping and analysis of earthquake-induced geohazards. We provided information to relief and recovery officials as emergency operations were occurring, while supported by one of the largest-ever NASA-led campaigns of responsive satellite data acquisitions over a vast disaster zone. Our analysis of geohazards distribution allowed evaluation of geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on earthquake-induced landsliding, process mechanisms, and hazard process chains, particularly where they affected local populations. RESULTS We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. Their distribution shows positive associations with slope and shaking intensity. The highest areal densities of landslides are developed on the downdropped northern tectonic block, which is likely explained by momentary reduction of the normal stress along planes of weakness during downward acceleration. The two largest shocks bracket the high-density landslide distribution, the largest magnitudes of the surface displacement field, and highest peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Landslides are heavily concentrated where PGA was >0.6g and slope is >30°. Additional controls on landslide occurrence are indicated by their clustering near earthquake epicenters and within specific lithologic units. The product of PGA and the sine of surface slope (defined as the landslide susceptibility index) is a good indicator of where most landslides occurred. A tail of the statistical distributions of landslides extends to low values of the landslide susceptibility index. Slight earthquake shaking affected vulnerable materials hanging on steep slopes—such as ice, snow, and glacial debris—and moderate to strong shaking affected poorly consolidated sediments deposited in low-sloping river valleys, which were already poised near a failure threshold. In the remote Langtang Valley, some of the most concentrated destruction and losses of life outside the Kathmandu Valley were directly due to earthquake-induced landslides and air blasts. Complex seismic wave interactions and wave focusing may have caused ridgetop shattering and landslides near Langtang but reduced direct shaking damage on valley floors and at glacial lakes. CONCLUSION The Gorkha earthquake took a tremendous, tragic toll on human lives and culture. However, fortunately no damaging earthquake-caused glacier lake outburst floods were observed by our satellite analysis. The total number of landslides was far fewer than those generated by comparable earthquakes elsewhere, probably because of a lack of surface ruptures, the concentration of deformation along the subsurface thrust fault at 10 to 15 km depth, and the regional dominance of competent high-grade metamorphic and intrusive igneous rock types. Landslide distribution and effects of a huge landslide. (A) Landslides (purple dots) are concentrated mostly north of the tectonic hinge-line. Also shown are the epicenters of the main shock and largest aftershock. Displacements are from the JAXA ALOS-2 ScanSAR interferogram (21 Feb and 2 May 2015 acquisitions). (B and C) Before-and-after photographs obtained by D. Breashears in Langtang Valley showing complete destruction of a large part of Langtang village by a huge landslide. The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision-makers. We mapped 4312 coseismic and postseismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage but found only nine landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets

The mapping and measurement of glaciers and their changes are useful in predicting sea-level and regional water supply, studying hazards and climate change [Haeberli et al., 1998],and in the hydropower industry Existing inventories cover only about 67,000 of the worlds estimated 160,000 glaciers and are based on data collected over 50 years or more [e.g.,Haeberli et al., 1998]. The data available have proven that small ice bodies are disappearing at an accelerating rate and that the Antarctic ice sheet and its fringing ice shelves are undergoing unexpected, rapid change. According to many glaciologists, much larger fluctuations in land ice—with vast implications for society—are possible in the coming decades and centuries due to natural and anthropogenic climate change [Oppenheimer, 1998].

Evidence of a hydrological connection between the ice divide and ice sheet margin in the Aurora Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica

Subglacial hydrology in East Antarctica is poorly understood, yet may be critical to the manner in which ice flows. Data from a new regional airborne geophysical survey (ICECAP) have transformed our understanding of the topography and glaciology associated with the 287,000 km2 Aurora Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica. Using these data, in conjunction with numerical ice sheet modeling, we present a suite of analyses that demonstrate the potential of the 1000 km-long basin as a route for subglacial water drainage from the ice sheet interior to the ice sheet margin. We present results from our analysis of basal topography, bed roughness and radar power reflectance and from our modeling of ice sheet flow and basal ice temperatures. Although no clear-cut subglacial lakes are found within the Aurora Basin itself, dozens of lake-like reflectors are observed that, in conjunction with other results reported here, support the hypothesis that the basin acts as a pathway allowing discharge from subglacial lakes near the Dome C ice divide to reach the coast via the Totten Glacier.

Iceberg calving from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

Abstract We investigate the iceberg-calving cycle of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS), East Antarctica, using evidence acquired between 1936 and 2000. The most recent major iceberg-calving event occurred between late 1963 and early 1964, when a large berg totalling about 10 000 km2 in area broke from the ice front. The rate of forward advance of the ice front is presently 1300–1400ma–1. At this rate of advance, based on the present ice-front position from recent RADARSAT imagery, it would take 20–25 years to attain the 1963 (pre-calve) position, suggesting that the AIS calving cycle has a period of approximately 60–70 years. Two longitudinal (parallel-to-flow) rifts, approximately 25 km apart at the AIS front, are observed in satellite imagery acquired over the last 14+years. These rifts have formed at suture zones in the ice shelf, where neighbouring flow-bands have separated in association with transverse spreading. The rifts were 15 km (rift A) and 26 km (rift B) in length in September 2000, and will probably become the sides of a large tabular iceberg (25 km 625 km). Atransverse (perpendicular-to-flow) fracture, visible at the upstream end of rift A in 1996, had propagated 6 km towards rift B by September 2000; when it meets rift B the iceberg will calve. A satellite image acquired in 1962 shows an embayment of this size in the AIS front, hence we deduce that this calving pattern also occurred during the last calving cycle, and therefore that the calving behaviour of the AIS apparently follows a regular pattern.

Multi-year monitoring of rift propagation on the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

We use satellite imagery from four sensors (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), and RADARSAT and ERS Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to monitor the lengths of two rifts on the Amery Ice Shelf, from 1996 to 2004. We find that the rifts have each been propagating at a steady annual rate for the past 5 years. Superimposed on this steady rate is a seasonal signal, where propagation rates are significantly higher in the summer period (i.e., September–April) than in the winter period (i.e., April–September). Possible causes of this summer-winter effect are changing properties of the ice melange, which fills the rifts, and seasonal changes in ocean circulation beneath the ice shelf

Examining the interaction between multi‐year landfast sea ice and the Mertz Glacier Tongue, East Antarctica: Another factor in ice sheet stability?

The Mertz Glacier tongue (MGT), East Antarctica, has a large area of multi-year fast sea ice (MYFI) attached to its eastern edge. We use various satellite data sets to study the extent, age, and thickness of the MYFI and how it interacts with the MGT. We estimate its age to be at least 25 years and its thickness to be 10-55 m; this is an order of magnitude thicker than the average regional sea-ice thickness and too thick to be formed through sea-ice growth alone. We speculate that the most plausible process for its growth after initial formation is marine (frazil) ice accretion. The satellite data provide two types of evidence for strong mechanical coupling between the two types of ice: The MYFI moves with the MGT, and persistent rifts that originate in the MGT continue to propagate for large distances into the MYFI. The area of MYFI decreased by 50% following the departure of two large tabular icebergs that acted as pinning points and protective barriers. Future MYFI extent will be affected by subsequent icebergs from the Ninnis Glacier and the imminent calving of the MGT. Fast ice is vulnerable to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and its disappearance may have an influence on ice tongue/ice shelf stability. Understanding the influence of thick MYFI on floating ice tongues/ice shelves may be significant to understanding the processes that control their evolution and how these respond to climate change, and thus to predicting the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Digital elevation models for the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica, from ERS-1 satellite radar altimetry

The Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system is a major component of the East Antarctic ice sheet. This paper presents two digital elevation models (DEMs) that have been generated for the Lambert-Amery system from validated European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS-1) radar altimeter waveform data. The first DEM covers the Amery Ice Shelf only, and was produced using kriging on a 1 km grid. The second is a coarser (5 km) DEM of the entire Lambert-Amcry system, generated via simple averaging procedures. The DEMs provide unprecedented surface elevation information for the Lambert-Amery system and allow new insight into the glaciology of the region.