O. M. Raspopov

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth’s magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10–12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch)

Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes 14C in tree rings and 10Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic 14C and 10Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.

Possible manifestation of nonlinear effects when solar activity affects climate changes

The response of the nonlinear oscillatory system to an insignificant external disturbance has been considered as applied to the effect of solar activity on climatic processes. Based on a simplified model, it has been indicated that the response of a nonlinear oscillator to a weak disturbing impact can be substantial. The oscillator fluctuation spectrum can decrease under the action of a disturbing factor. This means that the effect of an even weak solar or cosmophysical signal to the Earth’s climatic system can lead to significant climate variations if this system is nonlinear. However, it will be rather difficult to identify the solar—climatic nature of these variations because a linear relation between the cause and response is absent.

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields, and climate changes. Part 2: The time interval from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago

A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale.

Possible impact of interplanetary and interstellar dust fluxes on the Earth’s climate

This article considers the process of entry of cosmic substance into the Earth’s atmosphere and the further evolution of the formed extraterrestrial aerosol. It is shown that meteorite-derived aerosol generated in the atmosphere may affect the Earth’s climate in two ways: (a) particles of meteoric haze may serve as condensation nuclei in the troposphere and stratosphere; (b) charged meteor particles residing in the mesosphere may markedly change (by a few percent) the total atmospheric resistance and, thereby, affect the global current circuit. Changes in the global electric circuit, in turn, may influence cloud formation processes. The obtained results argue for the fact that the meteoric dust in the Earth’s atmosphere is potentially one of the important climate-forming agents. It is shown that the amount of interstellar dust in the Earth’s atmosphere is too small to have a considerable affect on atmospheric processes.

Solar activity and cosmic rays: Influence on cloudiness and processes in the lower atmosphere (in memory and on the 75th anniversary of M.I. Pudovkin)

The works by M.I. Pudovkin and his group devoted to studies of the influence of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity variability on the processes in the lower atmosphere and climatic parameters are briefly analyzed. The issues to be addressed for the solution of the problem are identified.

Deep solar activity minima, sharp climate changes, and their impact on ancient civilizations

It is shown that, over the past ∼10000 years (the Holocene), deep Maunder type solar minima have been accompanied by sharp climate changes. These minima occurred every 2300–2400 years. It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global change in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar activity minimum. The climate changes that took place at ca 4.0 ka BP and the deep solar activity minimum that occurred at ca 2.5 ka BP affected the development of human society, leading to the degradation and destruction of a number of ancient civilizations.

Impact of the geomagnetic field and solar radiation on climate change

Recent studies have shown that, in addition to the role of solar variability, past climate changes may have been connected with variations in the Earth’s magnetic field elements at various timescales. An analysis of variations in geomagnetic field elements, such as field intensity, reversals, and excursions, allowed us to establish a link between climate changes at various timescales over the last millennia. Of particular interest are sharp changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and short reversals of the magnetic poles (excursions). The beginning and termination of the examined geomagnetic excursions can be attributed to periods of climate change. In this study, we analyzed the possible link between short-term geomagnetic variability (jerks) and climate change, as well as the accelerated drift of the north magnetic pole and surface temperature variations.The results do not rule out the possibility that geomagnetic field variations which modulate the cosmic ray flux could have played a major role in climate change in addition to previously induced by solar radiation.

Reconstruction of the Earth’s surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes, global warming in the last millennium, and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 2. Experimental data analysis

The most reliable pattern of climate changes is obtained using data of instrumental observations at the network of meteorological stations. However, the series of such data have short timescales (about 150 years). Indirect data from natural archives make it possible to judge specific features of climate changes in the more distant past. In contrast to indirect methods, when data are related to temperature through statistical correlations with air temperature, the borehole geothermal method makes it possible to directly determine the surface air temperature. The reconstructions of the temperature obtained using different indirect data for the Northern Hemisphere have been compared with the surface air temperature reconstructions based on the data of borehole thermometry and solar activity variations, and the possibilities of using the method in order to reconstruct long-term trends in climate changes have been indicated.

Variations in the cosmic ray fluxes, modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields, and climate changes. Part 3: A time interval of 1.5 Myr, including the pleistocene

The most reliable data on a change in the intensity of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field on large time scales have been analyzed, and the relations between changes in these processes and climate during the last 1.5 Myr have been studied. An analysis indicated that the climate of the Earth is affected by changes in the Earth’s orbit parameters and geomagnetic dipole values; however, the climate responds to these changes with a delay of 10 kyr and immediately, respectively. In this case about two thirds of the effect of eccentricity on 18O is implemented via an intermediate chain: virtual axial dipole moment, changes in which can be related to changes in eccentricity. Thus, an analysis of the accumulated data on the processes, proceeding in the Earth’s atmosphere during the interaction with cosmic rays on the scales of several years to several hundreds of thousand years, indicates that the cosmophysical factor of influence on climate cannot be rejected. To make the conclusion more convincing, it is necessary to collect data for the studied time interval in a much wider region, to more accurately date samples, and to study the response of the climatic system to the external influence.

The 50th Anniversary of International Geophysical Year (1957-1958): from the First International Polar Year (1882-1883) to the International Heliophysical Year (2007-2008) and International Polar Year (2007-2009)

The history of organization and performance of the largest international scientific projects—the first International Polar Year (1882–1883), the second International Polar Year (1932–1933), and the International Geophysical Year (1957–1958)—and the significance of these projects for the development of geophysical studies in our country are briefly considered.