Odd Helge Otterå

Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China: a comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model

Abstract Observations show that the summer precipitation over East China often goes through decadal variations of opposite sign over North China and the Yangtze River valley (YRV), such as the “southern flood and northern drought” pattern that occurred during the late 1970s–1990s. In this study it is shown that a modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the summer precipitation pattern over East China during the last century is partly responsible for this characteristic precipitation pattern. During positive PDO phases, the warm winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Pacific along the western coast of North American propagate to the tropics in the following summer due to weakened oceanic meridional circulation and the existence of a coupled wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism, resulting in a warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (5°N–20°N, 160°W–120°W) in summer. This in turn causes a zonal anomalous circulation over the subtropical–tropical Pacific Ocean that induces a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and thus more moisture over the YRV region. The end result of these events is that the summer precipitation is increased over the YRV region while it is decreased over North China. The suggested mechanism is found both in the observations and in a 600-years fully coupled pre-industrial multi-century control simulations with Bergen Climate Model. The intensification of the WPSH due to the warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean was also examined in idealized SSTA-forced AGCM experiments.

The sensitivity of the present‐day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater forcing

[1] Mounting evidence indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was strongly reduced during cold climate episodes in the past, possible due to freshwater influx from glacial melting. It is also expected that the freshwater input to high northern latitudes will increase as human-induced global warming continues, with potential impacts on the AMOC. Here we present results from a 150 years sensitivity experiment with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) for the present-day climate, but with enhanced runoff from the Arctic region throughout the integration. The AMOC drops by 30% over the first 50 years, followed by a gradual recovery. The simulated response indicates that the present-day AMOC might be robust to the isolated effect of enhanced, high-latitude freshwater forcing on a centennial time scale, and that the western tropical North Atlantic may provide key information about the long-term variability, and by that monitoring, of the AMOC.

Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre*

In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev 5 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv [ 10 6 m 3 s 21 ) corresponds to an intensificationofaboutone-halfstddevoftheSPGstrength(1stddev 52 Sv).Asimilarresponseisfoundfor an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev 5 0.9 Sv).

Modelling Late Cenozoic isostatic elevation changes in the Barents Sea and their implications for oceanic and climatic regimes: preliminary results

Late Cenozoic isostatic changes in the elevation of the Barents Sea are simulated using a numerical model. Isopach maps of the deposits off present-day Bear Island and Storfjorden troughs made earlier are used to calculate the thickness of sediment cover removed from the respective drainages basins at various time intervals during the last 2.3 Ma. Results indicate that Barents Sea was subaerially exposed at 2.3 Ma and major parts of it became submarine after 1 Ma. Barents Sea today receives around 40% of the warm and saline North Atlantic waters flowing into the Scotland–Greenland Ridge and about half of the Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean. It thus has an important role to play in the present-day ocean circulation pattern in the Polar North Atlantic region and water-mass transformations that take place in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Ocean. The effects of an uplifted Barents Sea on the oceanic regime and the Arctic sea-ice cover under the present-day forcings fields are studied using the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model. Preliminary results indicate that a subaerial Barents Sea causes an increased input of warm Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait which results in warming of the Atlantic water masses in the Arctic Ocean, followed by a reduction in the sea-ice cover. The obtained findings can be used to explain the apparent discrepancy in the late Cenozoic record of the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions whereby Fennoscandia, Iceland and Greenland are envisaged to have been covered by major ice sheets during late Pliocene whereas high Arctic areas such as Svalbard and NE Greenland were apparently free of any major ice. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transient response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to enhanced freshwater input to the Nordic Seas–Arctic Ocean in the Bergen Climate Model

The transient response of the climate system to anomalously large freshwater input to the high latitude seas is examined using the newly developed Bergen Climate Model. A 150-yr twin-experiment has been carried out, consisting of a control and a freshwater integration. In the freshwater integration, the freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas is artificially increased by a factor of 3, or to levels comparable to those found during the last deglaciation. The obtained response shows a reduced maximum strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the first 50 yr of about 6 Sv (1 Sv =106 m3 s—1), followed by a gradual recovery to a level comparable to the control integration at the end of the period. The weakened AMOC in the freshwater integration is caused by reduced deep-water formation rates in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and in the Nordic Seas, and by a reduced southward flow of intermediate water masses through the Fram Strait. The recovery of the AMOC is caused by an increased basin-scale upwelling in the Atlantic Ocean of about 1 Sv, northward transport of saline waters originating from the western tropical North Atlantic, and a surface wind field maintaining the inflow of Atlantic Water to the Nordic Seas between the Faroes and Scotland. Associated with the build-up of more saline waters in the western tropical North Atlantic, a warming of ~0.6 °C over the uppermost 1000 m of the water column is obtained in this region. This finding is consistent with paleo records during the last deglaciation showing that the tropics warmed when the high latitudes cooled in periods with reduced AMOC. Furthermore, the results support the presence of a coupled North-Atlantic-Oscillation-like atmosphere’sea-ice’ocean response mode triggered by the anomalous freshwater input. Throughout most of the freshwater integration, the atmospheric circulation is characterized by anomalously low sea level pressure in the Nordic Seas and anomalously high sea level pressure over Spain. This forces the North Atlantic Drift to follow a more easterly path in the freshwater integration than in the control integration, giving an asymmetric sea surface temperature response in the northern North Atlantic, and thereby maintaining the properties of the AtlanticWater entering the Nordic Seas between the Faroes and Scotland throughout the freshwater integration.

External forcing of the early 20th century Arctic warming

The observed Arctic warming during the early 20th century was comparable to present-day warming in terms of magnitude. The causes and mechanisms for the early 20th century Arctic warming are less clear and need to be better understood when considering projections of future climate change in the Arctic. The simulations using the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) can reproduce the surface air temperature (SAT) fluctuations in the Arctic during the 20th century reasonably well. The results presented here, based on the model simulations and observations, indicate that intensified solar radiation and a lull in volcanic activity during the 1920s–1950s can explain much of the early 20th century Arctic warming. The anthropogenic forcing could play a role in getting the timing of the peak warming correct. According to the model the local solar irradiation changes play a crucial role in driving the Arctic early 20th century warming. The SAT co-varied closely with local solar irradiation changes when natural external forcings are included in the model either alone or in combination with anthropogenic external forcings. The increased Barents Sea warm inflow and the anomalous atmosphere circulation patterns in the northern Europe and north Atlantic can also contribute to the warming. In summary, the early 20th century warming was largely externally forced.

A possible feedback mechanism involving the Arctic freshwater, the Arctic sea ice, and the North Atlantic Drift

Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater fluxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes, the combined effect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming—the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice—is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration, one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runoff, and a third more extreme case, where the river runoff is five times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases, the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5–2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift. Furthermore, changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensified Beaufort Gyre, which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass, more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic, leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift.

Description and evaluation of NorESM1-F: A fast version of theNorwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)

A new computationally efficient version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) is presented. This new version (here termed NorESM1-F) runs about 2.5 times faster (e.g. 90 model years per day on current hardware) than the version that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5), i.e., NorESM1-M, and is therefore particularly suitable for multi-millennial paleoclimate and carbon cycle simulations or large ensemble simulations. The speedup is 5 primarily a result of using a prescribed atmosphere aerosol chemistry and a tripolar ocean-sea ice horizontal grid configuration that allows an increase of the ocean-sea ice component time steps. Ocean biogeochemistry can be activated for fully coupled and semi-coupled carbon cycle applications. This paper describes the model and evaluates its performance using observations and NorESM1-M as benchmarks. The evaluation emphasises model stability, important large-scale features in the ocean and sea ice components, internal variability in the coupled system, and climate sensitivity. Simulation results from NorESM1-F 10 in general agree well with observational estimates, and show evident improvements over NorESM1-M, for example, in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation and sea ice simulation, both important metrics in simulating past and future climates. Whereas NorESM1-M showed a slight global cool bias in the upper oceans, NorESM1-F exhibits a global warm bias. In general, however, NorESM1-F has more similarities than dissimilarities compared to NorESM1-M, and some biases and deficiencies known in NorESM1-M remain. 15

Climate response to aerosol geoengineering: a multi-method comparison.

AbstractConsidering the ambitious climate targets of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C, with aspirations of even 1.5 °C, questions arise on how to achieve this. Climate geoengineering has been proposed as a potential tool to minimise global harm from anthropogenic climate change. Here, an Earth System model is used to evaluate the climate response when transferring from a high CO2 forcing scenario, RCP8.5, to a middle-of-the-road forcing scenario, like RCP4.5, using aerosol geoengineering. Three different techniques are considered: stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI), marine sky brightening (MSB) and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). The climate states appearing in the climate geoengineering cases are found to be closer to RCP4.5 than RCP8.5 and many anthropogenic global warming symptoms are alleviated. All three techniques result in comparable global mean temperature evolutions. However, there are some notable differences in other climate variables due to the nature of the forcings applie...

Erratum to: Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Unfortunately, in the aforementioned contribution, Fig. 5 (Monthly multi-model (mean and range) precipitation change (mm/day) for 2080–2099 minus 1980–1999 averaged over the 26 regions, E1 (black) and A1B (grey) scenarios) contains an error. For two of the contributing models (ECHAM5-C and INGVCE) the evapotranspiration data had the wrong sign, leading to an opposing annual cycle in these models compared to the other models. The corrected Fig. 5 is presented here. It can be seen that the annual cycles of the climate change signals in evapotranspiration in the two scenarios agree much better between the different models than previously estimated. The general picture clearly underscores the findings from the preceding Figs. 3 and 4 that the climate change signals are much reduced under the E1 scenario compared to the A1B scenario. This is true for the ensemble properties (means, percentiles, ...