Ofer Setty

Financial Risk and Unemployment

There is a strong correlation between the corporate interest rate (BAA rated), and its spread relative to Treasuries, and the unemployment rate. We model how interest rates and potential default rates impact equilibrium unemployment in a Diamond-Mortesen-Pissarides model. We calibrate the model using US data without targeting business cycle statistics. Volatility in the corporate interest rate can explain about 80% of the volatility of unemployment, vacancies, and market tightness. Simulating the Great Recession shows the model can account for much of the rise in unemployment. Without Fed action, unemployment would have been 6% higher.

On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund

We characterize the optimal default fund in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. Using detailed data on individuals and their holdings inside and outside the pension system, we find substantial heterogeneity among default investors in terms of labor income, financial wealth, and stock market participation. We build a life-cycle consumption-savings model incorporating a DC pension account and realistic investor heterogeneity. We examine the optimal asset allocation for different realized equity returns and investors and compare it with age-based investing. The optimal asset allocation leads to less inequality in pensions while it moderates the risks through active rebalancing.