Oisín Tansey

Process Tracing and Elite Interviewing: A Case for Non-probability Sampling

This article explores the relationship between the method of process tracing and the data collection technique of elite interviewing. The process tracing method has become an in- creasingly used and cited tool in qualitative research, a trend that is likely to accelerate with the recent publication of Alexander George and Andrew Bennett’s text (2005) on case study research. That book outlines and explores the process tracing method in detail, high- lighting its advantages for exploring causal processes and analysing complex decision- making. Yet while the book presents a rigorous and compelling account of the process tracing method and its critical importance to case study research, the value of method itself remains contested in some quarters and there are aspects of George and Bennett’s treatment of it that require further exploration.

Kosovo: Independence and tutelage

Abstract:In February 2008, Kosovo broke away from Serbia and declared its independence. But to what extent is it making progress toward its goals of sovereignty and democracy?

Democratization without a State: Democratic Regime-building in Kosovo

This article examines the relationship between democratization and the state with reference to recent political developments in the non-state entity of Kosovo. Existing analyses of the role of the state in democratic transitions provide critical insights into the politics of democratization, but have suffered from a lack of consensus regarding the concept of the state itself. This study distinguishes three separate dimensions of statehood – recognition, capacity and cohesion – and argues that each has separate implications for transition politics. Analysis of democratic political development in Kosovo suggests two conclusions: first, that international recognition of statehood should not be viewed as a prerequisite for democratization, and second, that problems of state capacity or state cohesion present far more fundamental challenges to successful democratic regime change.

The problem with autocracy promotion

Recent scholarship has increasingly focused on the international dimensions of authoritarian rule, and the idea of autocracy promotion has gained considerable academic currency. While the literature on autocracy promotion has identified some clear patterns of external support for autocratic incumbents, it has so far failed to demonstrate that these efforts can best be understood as a unified, coherent set of foreign policies that constitute intentional efforts to promote a particular regime type abroad. This article identifies the key deficiencies of existing treatments of the concept and identifies a roadmap to establish some conceptual clarity on the topic. It advances a “strict” definition of autocracy promotion that requires a clear intent on the part of an external actor to bolster autocracy as a form of political regime as well as an underlying motivation that rests in significant part on an ideological commitment to autocracy itself. It also introduces a new typology that places autocracy promotion within the wider context of the international politics of authoritarian rule.

Does democracy need sovereignty

Non-state entities that aspire to statehood are increasingly developing democratic norms and practices, in part to enhance their claims for independence. However, the prospects for democracy in cases of ‘problematic sovereignty’ are little understood. This article seeks to explore the important but under-explored relationship between sovereignty and democracy, and in particular to assess the extent to which sovereignty is, or is not, a prerequisite for democracy. The article advances two arguments. First, it argues that there is no clear-cut relationship between sovereignty and democracy, as sovereignty is a complex concept that is comprised of several important, and distinct, constituent elements. Second, the article argues that the legal recognition of statehood (international legal sovereignty) is of marginal importance in this area, and should not be seen as a necessary condition for democratic rule. The article examines the process of democratic transition in the non-state entity of Somaliland to provide empirical support.

Ties to the Rest: Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival

The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of “autocratic linkage,” and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships.

The Fading of the Anti-Coup Norm

In the years since the early 1990s, tolerance within the international community for coups d’état has waned, and a new “anti-coup norm” has become institutionalized in international rulebooks and laws. New standards have emerged that require international actors to help ensure that ousted leaders are returned to power and that coup leaders are excluded from future politics. Despite significant progress in developing these new normative standards, the initial promise has not been fully met, and the anti-coup norm remains limited. This article traces the rise of the anti-coup norm and identifies the causes and implications of its mixed fortunes.

Muddling Through in Kosovo

has made visible the deep divisions between the United States and its European allies on the one hand, and Russia on the other; divisions that shaped the political dynamics of the Kosovo crisis nine years ago as they do today. The failure to seCle the status question through diplomacy has thrown the UN into crisis, leaving the Security Council deadlocked and the international community in Kosovo without direction and momen‐ tum. It has led to the de facto partition of Kosovo and control by Belgrade of the Serb‐inhabited northern municipalities, and left the international community struggling to define the nature of its engagement. The politi‐ cal divisions that have heightened the problem in Kosovo over the last nine years are unlikely to be resolved soon and, if anything, recent developments have accentuated them. New and creative approaches to stabilising Kosovo and promoting its economic and institutional devel‐ opment are necessary. Current European Union projects in support of the peace process in Northern Ireland might offer a model for such engagement. Muddling Through in Kosovo

The complexity of Western diplomacy: a reply to Beate Jahn

Beate Jahns recent articles, ‘The Tragedy of Liberal Diplomacy: Democratization, Intervention and Statebuilding (Parts I and II)’, present a comprehensive critique of twentieth century Western pol...

Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.