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Derivation and validation of the systemic lupus international collaborating clinics classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) group revised and validated the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria in order to improve clinical relevance, meet stringent methodology requirements, and incorporate new knowledge regarding the immunology of SLE. METHODS The classification criteria were derived from a set of 702 expert-rated patient scenarios. Recursive partitioning was used to derive an initial rule that was simplified and refined based on SLICC physician consensus. The SLICC group validated the classification criteria in a new validation sample of 690 new expert-rated patient scenarios. RESULTS Seventeen criteria were identified. In the derivation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (49 versus 70; P = 0.0082) and had greater sensitivity (94% versus 86%; P < 0.0001) and equal specificity (92% versus 93%; P = 0.39). In the validation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (62 versus 74; P = 0.24) and had greater sensitivity (97% versus 83%; P < 0.0001) but lower specificity (84% versus 96%; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION The new SLICC classification criteria performed well in a large set of patient scenarios rated by experts. According to the SLICC rule for the classification of SLE, the patient must satisfy at least 4 criteria, including at least one clinical criterion and one immunologic criterion OR the patient must have biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the presence of antinuclear antibodies or anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies.

Outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus: a prospective study of patients from a defined population.

All adult patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (greater than or equal to 15 years old, n = 86) from a defined population (approximately 160,000 population at risk) were followed prospectively over 6 years. The study area comprised 2 health care districts served by only 1 hospital. Retrieval was based on clinical case finding and computerized diagnosis and laboratory registers. The incidence of the disease was 4.0 cases/100,000 adults/year and was stable during the 6 years, suggesting that completeness of retrieval was high. Point prevalence by the end of 1986 was 42 cases/100,000 population at risk and 5-year survival in the prospective group 97%. Immunologically the group was characterized by a high frequency of positive anti-dsDNA (73%), and a low frequency of rheumatoid factor positivity (10%). The frequency of ARA criteria (median, 6) was comparable with previous larger series of selected patients. Sixteen percent of the patients were males, and they had more serositis and renal manifestations than females. In view of the low mortality we studied the more sensitive outcome measures: disease activity, irreversible organ damage, and functional impairment. After the diagnosis year, disease flares occurred with a constant frequency of 0.2 flares/year/patient, even after long duration of disease. Patients with neuropsychiatric disease, history of drug reactions, and immunological abnormalities such as persistent hypocomplementemia, antibodies to dsDNA, and cardiolipin had a high frequency of relapse. In contrast, elderly patients with serositis during their first flare seldom relapsed. The number of gainfully employed individuals was normal. Neuropsychiatric disease and joint involvement were principal causes of long-standing functional impairment. Notably, patients with renal disease usually fared well, as reflected by preserved renal function and little functional by preserved renal function and little functional impairment. Disease duration and glucocorticoid treatment were major denominators for morbidity due to infections and vascular disease with the incidence of myocardial infarctions being 9 times more common than that in a Swedish control population. Prolonged glucocorticoid treatment was also related to mortality, which was predominantly due to cardiovascular or central nervous system disease. The present prospective and epidemiologically based study of outcome in SLE was made possible by a uniquely coordinated health care system, enabling complete identification of the patients within the study area.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Cardiovascular Disease in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus A Study of 75 Patients from a Defined Population

All patients with systemic lupus erythematosus in a prospective, epidemiologically based study within a defined area in southern Sweden were invited to participate in an investigation of cardiac function. From 1981 to 1988, 101 patients were included in the study, and 75 of them were investigated according to a fixed protocol by echocardiography, Doppler cardiography, electrocardiography (ECG) at rest and at exercise, and myocardial scintigraphy (in patients whose ECG became abnormal during exercise). IgG anticardiolipin antibodies (IgG aCL) were determined by ELISA. Twenty of the 75 patients (27%) had valvular disease and 12 of these (60%) had increased concentrations of IgG aCL, compared with 12 of 55 (22%) without valvular disease (p less than 0.01). Pericardial effusion was detected in 14 patients (19%) during the study period. Mild pulmonary hypertension was found in 11 patients (16%), who also had increased frequency of IgG aCL. Myocardial infarction had occurred in 7 patients, 3 of whom were women less than 40 years of age. Echocardiography revealed regional hypokinesis or akinesis in 5 of the patients with myocardial infarction. Exercise testing revealed low work capacity in 13 of 54 patients (24%), the limiting symptoms being mainly exhaustion or musculoskeletal pain. An abnormal resting ECG was found in 9 of the patients participating in the exercise test. During exercise, abnormal ST-depression was observed in 8 patients, 2 of whom developed angina. Myocardial scintigraphy was performed in 6 of these patients, revealing reversible uptake defects in all. Prolonged glucocorticoid treatment was associated with valvular abnormalities as well as myocardial infarction. Valvular abnormalities and IgG aCL appeared to be risk factors for cerebral infarction.

Autoantibodies and neuropsychiatric events at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis: Results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE To examine, in an inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, the association between neuropsychiatric (NP) events and anti-ribosomal P (anti-P), antiphospholipid (lupus anticoagulant [LAC], anticardiolipin), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I, and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies. METHODS NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions and clustered into central/peripheral and diffuse/focal events. Attribution of NP events to SLE was determined using decision rules of differing stringency. Autoantibodies were measured without knowledge of NP events or their attribution. RESULTS Four hundred twelve patients were studied (87.4% female; mean +/- SD age 34.9 +/- 13.5 years, mean +/- SD disease duration 5.0 +/- 4.2 months). There were 214 NP events in 133 patients (32.3%). The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 15% to 36%. There was no association between autoantibodies and NP events overall. However, the frequency of anti-P antibodies in patients with central NP events attributed to SLE was 4 of 20 (20%), versus 3 of 107 (2.8%) in patients with other NP events and 24 of 279 (8.6%) in those with no NP events (P = 0.04). Among patients with diffuse NP events, 3 of 11 had anti-P antibodies (27%), compared with 4 of 111 patients with other NP events (3.6%) and 24 of 279 of those with no NP events (8.6%) (P = 0.02). Specific clinical-serologic associations were found between anti-P and psychosis attributed to SLE (P = 0.02) and between LAC and cerebrovascular disease attributed to SLE (P = 0.038). There was no significant association between other autoantibodies and NP events. CONCLUSION Clinically distinct NP events attributed to SLE and occurring around the time of diagnosis were found to be associated with anti-P antibodies and LAC. This suggests that there are different autoimmune pathogenetic mechanisms, although low sensitivity limits the clinical application of testing for these antibodies.

Cancer risk in systemic lupus: An updated international multi-centre cohort study

OBJECTIVE To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS Across 30 centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person-years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkins lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.88), endometrial (SIR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.77), and possibly ovarian cancers (0.64, 95% CI 0.34-1.10). The variability of comparative rates across different cancers meant that only a small increased risk was estimated across all cancers (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05, 1.23). CONCLUSION These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL, and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus exogenous factors. Similarly, the etiology of the decreased breast, endometrial, and possibly ovarian cancer risk is uncertain, though investigations are ongoing.

Atherosclerotic vascular events in a multinational inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus

To describe vascular events during an 8‐year followup in a multicenter systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) inception cohort and their attribution to atherosclerosis.

Factors associated with damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort

Background and aims We studied damage accrual and factors determining development and progression of damage in an international cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Methods The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort recruited patients within 15 months of developing four or more 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for SLE; the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) was measured annually. We assessed relative rates of transition using maximum likelihood estimation in a multistate model. The Kaplan–Meier method estimated the probabilities for time to first increase in SDI score and Cox regression analysis was used to assess mortality. Results We recruited 1722 patients; mean (SD) age 35.0 (13.4) years at cohort entry. Patients with damage at enrolment were more likely to have further worsening of SDI (SDI 0 vs ≥1; p<0.001). Age, USA African race/ethnicity, SLEDAI-2K score, steroid use and hypertension were associated with transition from no damage to damage, and increase(s) in pre-existing damage. Male gender (relative transition rates (95% CI) 1.48 (1.06 to 2.08)) and USA Caucasian race/ethnicity (1.63 (1.08 to 2.47)) were associated with SDI 0 to ≥1 transitions; Asian race/ethnicity patients had lower rates of new damage (0.60 (0.39 to 0.93)). Antimalarial use was associated with lower rates of increases in pre-existing damage (0.63 (0.44 to 0.89)). Damage was associated with future mortality (HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.18 to 1.81) per SDI point). Conclusions Damage in SLE predicts future damage accrual and mortality. We identified several potentially modifiable risk factors for damage accrual; an integrated strategy to address these may improve long-term outcomes.

Autoantibodies as biomarkers for the prediction of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

Objective Neuropsychiatric events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. This study examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrolment predicted subsequent neuropsychiatric events. Methods Patients with a recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for neuropsychiatric events using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether neuropsychiatric events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first neuropsychiatric event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant (LA), anticardiolipin, anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Disease duration at enrolment was 5.4±4.2 months, follow-up was 3.6±2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2±13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed one or more neuropsychiatric event (total 917 events). Neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrolment 21.9% of patients had LA, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. LA at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 3.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 12.5, p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict neuropsychiatric events. Conclusion In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, LA and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk of intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis, respectively.

Evolution of disease burden over five years in a multicenter inception systemic lupus erythematosus cohort

We describe disease activity, damage, and the accrual of key autoantibodies in an inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort.

Gene-environment interactions in the aetiology of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a disease that displays a multitude of symptoms and a vast array of autoantibodies. The disease course may vary substantially between patients. The current understanding of SLE aetiology includes environmental factors acting on a genetically prone individual during an undetermined time period resulting in autoimmunity and finally surpassing that individuals disease threshold. Genetic differences and environmental factors may interact specifically in the pathogenetic processes and may influence disease development and modify the disease course. Identification of these factors and their interactions in the pathogenesis of SLE is vital in understanding the disease and may contribute to identify new treatment targets and perhaps also aid in disease prevention. However, there are several problems that need to be overcome, such as the protracted time frame of environmental influence, time dependent epigenetic alterations and the possibility that different pathogenetic pathways may result in a similar disease phenotype. This is mirrored by the relatively few studies that suggest specific gene-environment interactions. These include an association between SLE diagnosis and glutathion S-transferase gene variants combined with occupational sun exposure as well as variants of the N-acetyl transferase gene in combination with either aromatic amine exposure or hydralazine. With increased knowledge on SLE pathogenesis, the role of environmental factors and their genetic interactions may be further elucidated.