Olav Skarpaas

Measuring plant dispersal: an introduction to field methods and experimental design

The measurement of plant dispersal is vital for understanding plant distribution and abundance at different scales. However, dispersal is difficult to measure and there is a lack of guidance for researchers new to the subject. In this paper we provide advice on methods for measuring dispersal in the field and approaches to experimental design. First, we encourage clear exposition of the aims of the dispersal study and the ultimate use to which the data will be put (e.g. local dynamics, invasion processes, etc). We outline the types of dispersal exhibited by plants and emphasise that many species are dispersed by multiple processes, which are not necessarily related to putative adaptations. Few studies properly address the full range of processes by which a species is dispersed. We review methods for measuring plant dispersal, summarising the type of dispersal measured and problems with each method. We then outline the major questions about effort to be considered in sampling protocols and present an optimisation algorithm for designing dispersal studies given a suite of options, and biological and resource constraints. We propose and demonstrate a simulation modelling approach to comparing the data quality obtained by alternative experimental designs. Integrating simulation models with pilot studies offers a rapid route to improved estimation methods. We then discuss functions commonly fit to dispersal data and recommend caution as none is a priori the best description of the dispersal process. Finally, we call for a better description and understanding of dispersal kernels by: a more rigorous approach to designing dispersal measurement; better targeting of dispersal studies to particular questions; and achieving a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying dispersal, so that we can move from descriptions of pattern to a grasp of process.

Dispersal patterns, dispersal mechanisms, and invasion wave speeds for invasive thistles.

Understanding and predicting population spread rates is an important problem in basic and applied ecology. In this article, we link estimates of invasion wave speeds to species traits and environmental conditions. We present detailed field studies of wind dispersal and compare nonparametric (i.e., data‐based) and mechanistic (fluid dynamics model–based) dispersal kernel and spread rate estimates for two important invasive weeds, Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides. A high‐effort trapping design revealed highly leptokurtic dispersal distributions, with seeds caught up to 96 m from the source, far further than mean dispersal distances (approx. 2 m). Nonparametric wave speed estimates are highly sensitive to sampling effort. Mechanistic estimates are insensitive to sampling because they are obtained from independent data and more useful because they are based on the dispersal mechanism. Over a wide range of realistic conditions, mechanistic spread rate estimates were most sensitive to high winds and low seed settling velocities. The combination of integrodifference equations and mechanistic dispersal models is a powerful tool for estimating invasion spread rates and for linking these estimates to characteristics of the species and the environment.

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co‐occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi‐annual landscape‐wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co‐occurring species under changing conditions.

Environmental variability and the initiation of dispersal: turbulence strongly increases seed release

Dispersal is a critical process in ecology. It is an important biological driver of, for example, invasions, metapopulation dynamics, spatial pattern formation and pathogen movement. Much is known about the effect of environmental variability, including turbulence, on dispersal of diaspores. Here, we document experimentally the strong but under-explored influence of turbulence on the initiation of dispersal. Flower heads of two thistle species (Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides) with ripe seeds were exposed to series of laminar and turbulent air flows of increasing velocity in a wind tunnel. Seed release increased with wind speeds for both laminar and turbulent flows for both species. However, far more seeds were released, at significantly lower wind speeds, during turbulent flows. These results strongly suggest a need for more quantitative studies of abscission in the field, as well as dispersal models that incorporate variability in the diaspore release phase.

Hollow oaks and beetle conservation: the significance of the surroundings

In this study we investigated hollow oaks (Quercus robur, Q. petrea) situated in open landscapes and in forests in Norway in northern Europe, and compared their importance for rare and threatened beetles (Coleoptera). Old, hollow oak trees, both in parks and in forests, were extremely rich in red-listed beetles, and hosted a high proportion of threatened species. The proportion of oak associated species and the mean number of red-listed beetle species per tree was similar in the two site types, but rarefaction showed that for a certain number of individuals, oaks in forests had more threatened and near-threatened species than oaks in parks. The species composition also differed between site types: Park oaks had a higher proportion of species associated with hollows and animal nests, whereas in forests, there was a higher proportion of species depending on dead oak wood in general. Four factors were significant in explaining the richness of red-listed beetles in our study: Tree circumference, cavity decay stage, proportion of oak in the surroundings, and coarse woody debris (CWD) in the surroundings. Forest oaks were smaller, but they still trapped a species richness comparable to that of the larger park oaks—probably a result of high amounts of CWD in the surroundings. We show that oaks in open landscapes and oaks in forest have only partly overlapping beetle assemblages and, thus, cannot be substituted in conservation. Planning for conservation of red-listed beetles associated with this key habitat demands a large scale perspective, both in space and time, as the surroundings have important effects on associated threatened and near threatened species.

Seed release by invasive thistles: the impact of plant and environmental factors.

Dispersal is a key process in biological studies of spatial dynamics, but the initiation of dispersal has often been neglected, despite strong indications that differential timing of dispersal can significantly affect dispersal distances. To investigate which plant and environmental factors determine the release of plumed seeds by the invasive thistles Carduus acanthoides and Carduus nutans, we exposed 192 flower heads of each species to increasing wind speeds in a full-factorial wind tunnel experiment with four air flow turbulence, three flower head wetness and two flower head temperature levels. The number of seed releases was highest under dry and turbulent conditions and from heads that had already lost a considerable number of seeds, but was not affected by flower head size, head angle or temperature. Inspection of the trials on video showed that higher wind speeds were needed to meet the seed release threshold in laminar flows and for C. acanthoides heads that had been wet for a longer time. Species differences were minimal, although seed release was more sensitive to lower levels of turbulence in the larger-headed and more open C. nutans heads. Knowledge of seed release biases towards weather conditions favourable for long-distance dispersal improves our understanding of the spread of invaders and allows managers to increase the efficiency of their containment strategies by applying them at crucial times.

The Nature Index : a general framework for synthesizing knowledge on the State of Biodiversity

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide.

Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread: a spatial integral projection model

Plant survival, growth, and flowering are size dependent in many plant populations but also vary among individuals of the same size. This individual variation, along with variation in dispersal caused by differences in, e.g., seed release height, seed characteristics, and wind speed, is a key determinant of the spread rate of species through homogeneous landscapes. Here we develop spatial integral projection models (SIPMs) that include both demography and dispersal with continuous state variables. The advantage of this novel approach over discrete-stage spread models is that the effect of variation in plant size and size-dependent vital rates can be studied at much higher resolution. Comparing Neubert-Caswell matrix models to SIPMs allowed us to assess the importance of including individual variation in the models. As a test case we parameterized a SIPM with previously published data on the invasive monocarpic thistle Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Spread rate (c*) estimates were 34% lower than for standard spatial matrix models and stabilized with as few as seven evenly distributed size classes. The SIPM allowed us to calculate spread rate elasticities over the range of plant sizes, showing the size range of seedlings that contributed most to c* through their survival, growth and reproduction. The annual transitions of these seedlings were also the most important ones for local population growth (lambda). However, seedlings that reproduced within a year contributed relatively more to c* than to lambda. In contrast, plants that grow over several years to reach a large size and produce many more seeds, contributed relatively more to lambda than to c*. We show that matrix models pick up some of these details, while other details disappear within wide size classes. Our results show that SIPMs integrate various sources of variation much better than discrete-stage matrix models. Simpler, heuristic models, however, remain very valuable in studies where the main goal is to investigate the general impact of a life history stage on population dynamics. We conclude with a discussion of future extensions of SIPMs, including incorporation of continuous time and environmental drivers.

Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans.

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.