Ole-Kristian Hope

Domestic and Foreign Earnings, Stock Return Variability, and the Impact of Investor Sophistication

We examine the importance of foreign earnings relative to domestic earnings for a sample of U.S. multinationals using variance decomposition. Our methodology represents an alternative and complementary approach over the prior literature, which is based on traditional regressions and earnings response coefficients. We document that domestic earnings are more important in explaining the variance of unexpected returns than are foreign earnings and that the relative importance of domestic earnings is a decreasing function of investor sophistication. Last, we classify institutional investors as either short‐ or long‐term oriented following Bushee [1998]. We find that the variance contribution of foreign earnings increases with the level of investment by long‐term investors. In contrast, there is no significant relation between the degree of ownership by short‐term (or transient) investors and the variance contribution of domestic and foreign earnings. Overall, our results are consistent with Thomass [1999] finding that investors on average underestimate the persistence of foreign earnings.

Financial Reporting Quality of U.S. Private and Public Firms

Using a new database that contains accounting data for a large sample of U.S. private firms, we provide an investigation of financial reporting quality (FRQ) of U.S. private versus public firms. We find that in general public firms have higher accrual quality and are more conservative. The results are consistent with public firms’ reporting reflecting greater demand for financial information. However, these reporting qualities of public firms are mitigated or eliminated in settings where public firms are more likely to manage earnings or face reduced demand for their financial information. Our study contributes not only to the current debate on private versus public financial accounting but also to the broader literature attempting to understand the determinants of FRQ.

Employee Ownership and Firm Disclosure

Evidence suggests that managers have an incentive to keep information opaque with the market when negotiating with employees who can extract above-market rents from the firm. We argue that employee ownership should mitigate this incentive to extract above-market rents and, in turn, alleviate the firm’s need to keep information opaque. Consistent with our expectations and using a number of proxies for disclosure, we find that firms whose non-manager employees have strong bargaining power provide less disclosure. However, this effect is mitigated, the greater the equity in company common stock held by non-manager employees. Our results suggest a novel capital market benefit to employee ownership. Specifically, employee ownership for non-manager employees appears to benefit the firm by not only aligning goals between the firm and its employees, but by also increasing disclosure from the firm to all of its stakeholders by mitigating the firm’s need to keep information opaque.

International Evidence on Analyst Stock Recommendations, Valuations, and Returns

This is the first large study to examine the relation between analysts’ stock recommendations, earnings forecasts, and future excess stock returns in an international context. We first document that some of the peculiar findings established in the U.S. extend to other countries where individual investor participation in the stock market is high (especially when Japan is excluded from the sample). Specifically, we find that analysts’ recommendations relate positively to simple heuristics but negatively to more rigorous residual income valuation estimates (scaled by price). Furthermore, residual income valuation estimates relate positively to future returns, indicating their usefulness to investors, while analysts’ recommendations and heuristics relate negatively to future stock returns. In contrast, in countries with low investor participation rates, these peculiar findings are less observable. In these countries, analysts appear to rely relatively more on residual income valuation estimates in setting their recommendations, and these recommendations relate positively to future returns. The overall results are consistent with analysts’ recommendations being influenced by economic incentives other than identifying mispriced stocks in countries with high investor participation rates, substantiating puzzling results in the U.S.

Large Shareholders and Accounting Research

Large shareholders are a potentially very important element of firms’ corporate governance system. Whereas analytical research is typically vague on who these large shareholders are, in practice there are important variations in the types of large owners (and the different types of large owners could play very different governance roles). After briefly reviewing the standard agency cost arguments, in this article I emphasize the heterogeneity of concentrated ownership and in particular focus on the roles of families, institutions, governments, and employee ownership. I also discuss the role of large shareholders in private (i.e., unlisted) firms, where ownership tends to be more concentrated than in publicly traded firms. Finally, I briefly discuss variations in ownership structures across selected countries.

Individual Large Shareholders, Earnings Management, and Capital-Market Consequences: LARGE SHAREHOLDERS, EARNINGS MANAGEMENT

Using a large hand�?collected sample of all blockholders (ownership ≥ 5%) of S&P 1500 firms for the years 2002–2009, we first document significant individual blockholder effects on earnings management (accrual�?based earnings management, real earnings management, and restatements). This association is driven primarily by these large shareholders influencing rather than selecting firms’ financial reporting practices. Second, the market’s reaction to earnings announcements suggests that investors recognize the heterogeneity in blockholders’ influence on earnings management. The results highlight the highly individualized effects of blockholders and a mechanism through which shareholders impact reported earnings.

Private Company Finance and Financial Reporting

This article provides a comprehensive assessment of private firms’ financing sources and their relation with financial reporting practices. We consider debt financing (bank financing, leasing, and government guarantees), equity financing (family ownership, government ownership, employee ownership, and private-equity financing), and trade credit (supplier credit and factoring). Our primary conclusions are that there is significant heterogeneity in the way in which private companies are financed that is influenced by their specific business contexts, and that this heterogeneity in financing is associated with differential demand for and supply of financial reporting.

Flight to Quality in International Markets: Investors’ Demand for Financial Reporting Quality during Political Uncertainty Events

We examine whether international equity mutual-fund managers shift their portfolios toward stocks with higher financial reporting quality during periods of high political uncertainty. Our study is motivated by two primary factors. First, prior research shows evidence of fund managers’ “flight to quality” (e.g., to less risky securities) during periods of uncertainty. Second, recent theoretical research concludes that stocks with higher financial reporting quality are assessed as less sensitive to systematic risk (such as political uncertainty). We employ national elections as exogenous increases in systematic risk in the local markets and accordingly use an international sample of mutual funds that focus on local markets. We find that mutual-fund managers shift their equity holdings to stocks with higher financial reporting quality during election periods when political uncertainty is higher. Such a flight-to-quality effect is less pronounced for elections with larger expected electoral margins in the pre-election period (i.e., when the incumbent is more likely to win the election) and for countries with higher transactions costs. In contrast, the effect is more pronounced when governments have greater involvement in the local economy. Our inferences are robust to alternative proxies for political uncertainty and financial reporting quality and to numerous other sensitivity analyses.

China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign and Firm-Level Transparency

We examine the impact of China’s anti-corruption campaign on firm-level financial reporting quality (FRQ). As an important component of the anti-corruption campaign, in October 2013, “Rule 18�? was issued to prohibit party and government officials from serving as directors for publicly listed firms. The regulation led to a large number of official directors resigning from their roles as directors involuntarily. As such, Rule 18 has effectively weakened, if not fully discontinued, the political connections of the firms that previously hired officials as directors. Our empirical analyses employ a difference-in-differences research design with firm fixed effects and PSM to examine the pre- and post- period FRQ around the enactment of Rule 18. We find that, compared to propensity-score-matched control firms, FRQ of firms with resigned official director increases after Rule 18. Further evidence suggests that the impact is stronger when firms are located in regions with more developed financial markets and in regions with higher judiciary efficiency. We also find that the effect is more pronounced when firms are non-state-owned, received preferential credits, and face refinancing pressure.

Managerial Ability and Bank-Loan Pricing

This paper examines the impact of borrowers’ managerial ability on lenders’ bank-loan pricing and the channels through which managerial ability affects bank-loan pricing. Using a large sample of U.S. bank loans, we provide evidence that higher managerial ability is associated with lower bank-loan prices. This effect is stronger in firms with high information risk, suggesting that an important channel for managerial ability to affect bank-loan pricing is through improved financial disclosure to mitigate information asymmetry. The relation is also stronger for firms with weak business fundamentals, implying that another channel is through improved business performance. Of these two mechanisms, path analysis suggests that the business-fundamentals mechanism is the more important channel through which managerial ability affects bank-loan pricing.