Oleg Deev

The long-run superneutrality of money revised: the extended European evidence

Abstract This article investigates the validity of the money superneutrality concept for the large panel of European economies. While focusing exclusively on endogenous growth theories including the Mundell-Tobin effect, we examine the long-run response of real output to a permanent inflation shock in every studied country using a structural vector autoregressive framework. For the majority of countries in our sample, the longrun superneutrality concept is confirmed since the original increase/decrease in output growth fades in time. We also test the additional hypothesis of whether the group of countries with smaller in-sample inflation mean forms the exception to the long-run money superneutrality. As the result, modern economies might be better described from the viewpoint of Sidrauski.

Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia

Abstract In this paper we investigate the interdependence of the sovereign default risk and banking system fragility in two major emerging markets, China and Russia, using credit default swaps as a proxy for default risk. Both countries’ banking industries have strong ties with their governments and public sector, even after a series of significant reforms in the last two decades. Our analysis is built on the case studies of each country’s two biggest banks. We employ a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) framework to analyse the short- and long-run dynamics of the chosen CDS prices. We use Granger causality to describe the direction of the discovered dynamics. We find evidence of a stable long-run relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads in the chosen time period. The more stable relationship is found in cases where the biggest state-owned universal banks in emerging markets are closely managed by the government. But the fragility of those banks does not directly affect the state of public finances. However, in cases where state-owned banks directly participate in large governmental projects, banking fragility may result in the deterioration of state funds, while raising the risk of sovereign default.

The Poisson Regression Analysis for Occurrence of Floods

Currently, flood risk can be considered as the most serious threat, mainly in areas and countries where hardly any other natural risks occur. In order to analyze this kind of natural disaster, it is necessary to examine the long-term development of its occurrence around the world as well as its financial and other consequences. The main objective of the research was to apply Poisson regression on flood occurrence as the dependent variable. The set of explanatory variables under consideration was tested and subsequently the final model was determined. Poisson regression model, which is a generalized linear model, was chosen as a computing model. Using it guarantees consistent results when working with variables with non-normal data distribution (skewed and discrete). Thus OLS estimator cannot work and is replaced by MLE estimator. Consequently, confidence intervals of estimated parameters and all model results can be received. The research resulted in selecting the Poisson regression model with an estimated and significant parameter. Moreover, sample sets of selected countries were compared and evaluated in terms of overall intensity of flood occurrence.