Oleg I. Larichev

Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems

Introduction. 1. Individual Decision Making: Approaches and Methods. 2. A New Approach to Unstructured Problems of Decision Making. 3. The Method ZAPROS-LM For Partial Rank-Ordering of Multiattribute Alternatives. 4. The Method PACOM for the Selection of the Best Alternative. 5. The Method ORCLASS For Ordinal Classification of Multiattribute Alternatives. Conclusion. References. Index.

ZAPROS-LM — A method and system for ordering multiattribute alternatives

Abstract A method to aid in qualitative evaluation of multiattribute alternatives is proposed. It not only elicits information from a decision-maker in a qualitative form but tries to use it without resort to numbers, and to apply rational logic for comparison of alternatives. Special procedures for identification of possible inconsistencies in decision-makers information and elimination of them in a dialogue with a decision-maker are developed. Possibilities for verification and explanation of the results for partial ordering of a large set of alternatives are shown. Two main assumptions are used: transitivity of the decision-makers preferences and preferential independence of attributes. Problems of justification of these properties in real tasks of decision making are discussed. The description is accompanied by an example.

Ranking multicriteria alternatives: The method ZAPROS III

Abstract The new version of the method for the construction of partial order on the set of multicriteria alternatives is presented. This method belongs to the family of verbal decision analysis (VDA) methods and gives a more efficient means of problem solution. The method is based on psychologically valid operations for information elicitation from a decision maker: comparisons of two distances between the evaluations on the ordinal scales of two criteria. The information received from a decision maker is used for the construction of a binary relation between a pair of alternatives which yields preference, indifference and incomparability relations. The method allows construction of a partial order on the set of given alternatives as well as on the set of all possible alternatives. The illustrative example is given.

Limits to decision-making ability in direct multiattribute alternative evaluation

Abstract In recent years there has been considerable interest in how decision strategies in choice problems depend on such characteristics as the number of available criteria and the number of available alternatives. Along with multicriteria choice problems, classification tasks are treated where alternatives are classified into several decision (evaluative) classes. We believe that in classification problems ones ability in information processing is limited and depends on task complexity. In this paper we describe two experiments involving categorization of a large number of multiattribute alternatives into two or four evaluative classes. The results demonstrate that the subjects use different decision strategies and that there is a limit in human ability to implement these two tasks.

An approach to ordinal classification problems

Abstract An ordinal classification task is defined. An approach to the construction of full ordinal classification on the basis of a decision makers knowledge is proposed. It allows elicitation of information (or knowledge) in a natural form for the decision maker (through qualitative attribute scales and verbal descriptions of decision classes). It provides verification of the received judgments for consistency and possibilities for corrections and modifications of the elicited classification rules. Problems with obtaining valid judgments from people in ordinal classification tasks are discussed. The decision support system ORCLASS, developed on the basis of the proposed approach, is described.

Decision support system for classification of a finite set of multicriteria alternatives

The paper presents a new decision method and a decision support system (DSS) for solving multicriteria classification problems: how to allocate alternatives having evaluations in the terms of several criteria into ordered decision classes. In contrast to previous statements of this problem, a relatively small subset of alternatives is presented for classification. The efficiency of the method is estimated as the minimum number of questions posed to the decision maker (DM) to accomplish the needed classification. The main ideas of the new method as well as its evaluation by a statistical modeling approach are presented in the paper. A practical example is given. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple criteria analysis in strategic siting problems

1. Introduction. 2. Methods and Decision Processes: Descriptive and Normative. 3. High Level Waste Repository Selection. 4. Analysis of Alternative Methods to Dispose of Plutonium. 5. Project Selection and Control. 6. Solid Waste Management System Selection. 7. Pipeline Location Decisions. 8. Problems and Tools. 9. Support to the Multiattribute Decision Process. Author Index. Subject Index.

Numerical and verbal decision analysis: comparison on practical cases

Numerical decision analysis (NDA), derived from statistical decision theory, is very well known. Verbal decision analysis (VDA), oriented towards so-called unstructured problems, where the qualitative and uncertain factors dominate, is a newer direction in decision theory and practice. Verbal and numerical decision analyses (DAs) have been compared in an experimental setting, with groups of students. This paper presents the results of a comparison in the context of live practical tasks. Both approaches were attempted on two comparable choices, facing both Russian and US government agencies, involving a choice between oil and gas transportation options. The resulting methodological insights are generalized into a systematic comparison of the strong and weak features of each approach. Copyright

Problem formulation for multi-criteria decision analysis: Report of a workshop

This paper reports on a workshop on Problem Formulation in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis held at SPUDM97. The focus of the workshop was the problem formulation phase which occurs between the analyst meeting a person with a ‘mess’ and the time he or she begins to analyse a structured problem with several alternatives scored against several attributes or criteria. The objectives were: to share experience on procedures which might be transferable between the methodologies; to demonstrate different skills used by the analyst in structuring decision problems; and to catalyse a discussion on the problem formulation phase of an analysis. Three analysts, who generally approach problems using multiattribute methods, addressed the same problem. The problem used was constructed to be realistic to three decision makers, who had been trained in the issues of concern. There were two sessions. Each analyst was assigned a decision maker and formulated the problem independently in the first session, held in parallel. They were each observed by two observers and many of the audience at the workshop. The three formulations were presented along with the comments of the observers and discussed at a second plenary session. This paper reports the three formulations and observations, remarking on the ‘tricks of the trade’ employed by the analysts in formulating the problem. The analysts also describe their thinking and their aims in adopting their approach and style of interaction. More general remarks on the process of decision analysis are also offered.

Method ZAPROS for Multicriteria Alternatives Ranking and the Problem of Incomparability

The new method for the construction of partial order on the set of multicriteria alter- natives is presented. This method belongs to the family of Verbal Decision Analysis methods and gives a more efficient means of problem solution. The method is based on psychologically valid op- erations for information elicitation from a decision maker: comparisons of two distances between the evaluations on the ordinal scales of two criteria. The information received from a decision maker is used for the construction of a binary relation between a pair of alternatives which yields preference, indifference and incomparability relations. The notion of a method decisive power is introduced. The illustrative example is given.