Oleg P. Savchuk

Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea

Abstract Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the extent of anoxic bottoms and subsequently increasing the internal phosphorus loading. In addition, the hypoxic water volume displays a negative relationship with the total dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool, suggesting greater overall nitrogen removal with increased hypoxia. Enhanced internal loading of phosphorus and the removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen leads to lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, which are one of the main factors promoting nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms. Because cyanobacteria blooms in the open waters of the Baltic Sea seem to be strongly regulated by internal processes, the effects of external nutrient reductions are scale-dependent. During longer time scales, reductions in external phosphorus load may reduce cyanobacteria blooms; however, on shorter time scales the internal phosphorus loading can counteract external phosphorus reductions. The coupled processes inducing internal loading, nitrogen removal, and the prevalence of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria can qualitatively be described as a potentially self-sustaining “vicious circle.” To effectively reduce cyanobacteria blooms and overall signs of eutrophication, reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus external loads appear essential.

Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

Management Options and Effects on a Marine Ecosystem: Assessing the Future of the Baltic

Abstract We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.

Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model

Abstract A box model has been implemented to understand the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the Gulf of Riga. The large data sets collected within the international Gulf of Riga Project in 1993/1995 were used to validate the model. The comparison to data was useful in scaling up to the gulf-wide level and scrutinizing the conclusions based on short-term field surveys and experimental studies. The simulations indicate that the limiting role was passing from silicon to phosphorus to nitrogen over the seasons of organic production. However, on an annual scale, nutrient limitation was close to the “Redfield equilibrium”. Mass balance considerations, based on modeled coupled fluxes, disagree with the conclusions on low sediment denitrification and high phosphorus retention in the pelagic system, which were derived from isolated measurements. Nutrient budgets constructed with the model revealed the high buffer capacity of the Gulf of Riga. The nutrient residence times span a range from 6 years for N to 70 years for Si. The buffering arises from intensive internal recycling in the water body and by the bottom sediments. The budgets indicate that the Gulf retains about two-thirds of external nitrogen and silicon inputs, while phosphorus retention is only 10%. A slow response to external perturbations is demonstrated with numerical experiments run for 15 years under 50% reductions of terrestrial nutrient inputs. These experiments imply that the most effective is the N+P reduction scenario, which resulted in a 20% decrease of primary production after 12 years. A reduction of P resulted in only a 6% decrease of primary production; however, it yielded an 80% drop in the amount of nitrogen fixation.

Modeling the Baltic Sea Eutrophication in a Decision Support System

Abstract SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system Marine Research on Eutrophications Nest with the overall aim to evaluate management options for reducing Baltic Sea eutrophication. Simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations as well as transport flows and major biogeochemical fluxes can be analyzed in many different ways, including construction of detailed nutrient budgets and tracing the fate of nutrient inputs. The large amounts of data that exist for this sea makes it possible to validate model results with observations. Major biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea are discussed through an analyses of model sensitivity to external forcing and internal parameterizations. Model results emphasize two features that are especially important for ecosystem management: i) impacts of local measures would always be modified by the long-range transports from other regions and ii) the response to significant changes in loads would only be seen after several decades.

Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850‐2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850‐2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961‐2098, scenario simulations were driven by

Modelling regional and large-scale response of Baltic Sea ecosystems to nutrient load reductions

The entire Baltic Sea, as well as many of its different sub-regions, are subject to eutrophication due to high nutrient inputs. To plan expensive water management measures one needs a tool to quantify effects of different water management policy decisions. The tools implemented here are simulation models based on similar descriptions of biochemical interactions in the water and sediments but coupled to different hydrodynamical models. For the Baltic Proper a 1D physical model with high vertical resolution but horizontally integrated was used. Simulations for 20 years made with 50% load reduction each 5 year show that for this domain and at these scales the recovery would take decades. The most effective is reduction of phosphorus, while reduction of only nitrogen leads to a dramatic increase in cyanobacteria blooms. For the Gulf of Finland a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model was coupled to a more crude 3D-box biogeochemical model describing concrete conditions during August and November 1991. In the Eastern Gulf of Finland the effects of a 50% load reduction from the St. Petersburg region are pronounced even after two weeks. Here, nitrogen reduction would be more beneficial than that of phosphorus, both locally and at a larger scale. The conclusion from these simulations is that the difference in effects of nitrogen versus phosphorus reduction is dependent on scales and locations of management.

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical–biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961–2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission′s (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

Abstract An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the “Finland” scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the “St. Petersburg” scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the “Poland” scenario is seen, while in the “St. Petersburg” scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.