Olga N. Krankina

Mapping Russian forest biomass with data from satellites and forest inventories

The forests of Russia cover a larger area and hold more carbon than the forests of any other nation and thus have the potential for a major role in global warming. Despite a systematic inventory of these forests, however, estimates of total carbon stocks vary, and spatial variations in the stocks within large aggregated units of land are unknown, thus hampering measurement of sources and sinks of carbon. We mapped the distribution of living forest biomass for the year 2000 by developing a relationship between ground measurements of wood volume at 12 sites throughout the Russian Federation and data from the MODIS satellite bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) product (MOD43B4). Based on the results of regression-tree analyses, we used the MOD43B4 product to assign biomass values to individual 500 m × 500 m cells in areas identified as forest by two satellite-based maps of land cover. According to the analysis, the total living biomass varied between 46 and 67 Pg, largely because of different estimates of forest area. Although optical data are limited in distinguishing differences in biomass in closed canopy forests, the estimates of total living biomass obtained here varied more in response to different definitions of forest than to saturation of the optical sensing of biomass.

Scaling net primary production to a MODIS footprint in support of Earth observing system product validation

Release of an annual global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) data layer has begun in association with the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, a component of the NASA Earth Observing System. The task of validating this product will be complicated by the mismatch in scale between ground-based NPP measurements and the coarse resolution (1 km) of the NPP product. In this paper we describe three relevant approaches to scaling NPP from the plot level to the approximately 25-km2 footprint of the sensor, and discuss issues associated with operational comparisons to the MODIS NPP product. All approaches revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity in NPP at scales less than the resolution of the MODIS NPP product. The effort to characterize uncertainty in the validation data layers indicated the importance of treating the combination of classification error, sampling error, and measurement error. Generally, the optimal procedure for scaling NPP to a MODIS footprint will depend on local vegetation type, the scale of spatial heterogeneity, and available resources. In all approaches, high resolution remote sensing can play a critical role in characterizing land cover and relevant biophysical variables.

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Abstract Northern Eurasia, the largest land-mass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ∼20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously...

Global Climate Change Adaptation: Examples from Russian Boreal Forests

The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the worlds timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long-lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation.

Can the Terrestrial Biosphere Be Managed to Conserve and Sequester Carbon

Globally, the terrestrial biosphere contains about 1943 Pg C with approximately 60% of this C occurring in forests. In 1990, deforestation in the low-latitudes emitted around 1.6 Pg C yr-1, whereas forest area expansion and growth in mid- and high-latitude forest sequestered 0.7 Pg C yr-1, for a net flux to the atmosphere of 0.9 ± 0.6 Pg C yr-1. Slowing deforestation, combined with an increase in forestation and other management measures to improve forest ecosystem productivity could conserve or sequester significant quantities of C Analysis of forest sector C budgets for the countries of Brazil, Russian Federation and USA reveal opportunities exist in key nations to mitigate the flux of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Slowing land use change, expanding current forest area and improving productivity of existing stands could potentially conserve or sequester approximately 2.9, 6.5 and 1.3 Pg C yr-1 in Brazil, Russia and USA, respectively. Future terrestrial biosphere C cycling trends attributable to vegetation losses and regrowth associated with global climate and land use change are uncertain. Model projections range widely suggesting the terrestrial biosphere may be a C sink or source in the future.

Human Dimensions of Environmental Change in Siberia

This chapter provides background on socioeconomic contexts followed by synthesis of remote sensing-based case studies highlighting major human influences on the Siberian landscape during three eras: Soviet (1917–1991), early post-Soviet transformation (starting after 1991), and recent/emerging. During 1975–2001, Landsat-based LCLUC data in East Siberia showed characteristic patterns including: high rates of logging during the Soviet era that declined abruptly and remained low after 1989, a decline in agriculture (and subsequent reforestation) beginning prior to 1991, and a decline in mature conifer and increase in deciduous forest. In the far north, multiple remote sensing data over time demonstrated the degradation and mortality of the larch forests surrounding the Norilsk nickel mining complex. In East Siberia, multiple remote sensing data showed that oil and gas reconnaissance directly disturb the landscape but that their indirect influence on increased fire occurrence is of greater consequence. Along the Siberia-China Amur River border, replanting and the almost complete removal of mature conifer are evident in Landsat data on the Chinese side, whereas fire predominates on the Siberian side. In the recent/emerging era, LCLUC in Siberia is being influenced by greater transnationalism and increased demand for wood from other Asian countries. Oil and gas development is shifting to East Siberia. Pipelines and infrastructure are being built across Siberian lands directly to the Pacific and to China. Remote sensing–based analyses have been integral to increased knowledge of past and emerging trends in human dimensions of environmental change across the vast geographic region of Siberia.

Vegetation Cover in the Eurasian Arctic: Distribution, Monitoring, and Role in Carbon Cycling

Comparison of several recent, publicly available and widely used land-cover products for the Eurasian Arctic revealed important differences in their representations of vegetation distribution. Such disparities have important implications for models that use these products as driving data sets to monitor vegetation and its role in carbon dynamics. The differences between GLC-2000 and MODIS.PFT are concentrated at borders between biomes, as well as in parts of the region where a significant presence of open-canopy vegetation is expected. In these two maps, tree cover is represented more consistently than shrub or herbaceous cover, and the MODIS.VCF product corroborates the general pattern of tree-cover distribution. The comparison of the MODIS.VCF and AVHRR.VCF maps over northeastern Europe indicates good agreement in the south with increasing disagreement further north primarily due to differences in definitions of the mapped variables. The analysis of land-cover maps at two Landsat validation sites showed different patterns of agreement and disagreement. At the forest dominated St. Petersburg site, the GLC-2000 and MODIS.PFT classifications both exaggerated tree cover and under-reported shrub and herbaceous vegetation. At the tundra site (Komi), the over-reporting of tree cover by GLC-2000 and the failure of MODIS.PFT to separate shrub and herbaceous vegetation were the major issues in representing the overall land cover. A simple analysis that extrapolated results of biogeochemical modeling showed that a very different picture of the regional carbon balance emerges when different vegetation maps are used as model inputs.

Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass for two management scenarios in Russia

Accurate quantification of terrestrial carbon storage and its change is of key importance to improved understanding of global carbon dynamics. Forest management influences carbon sequestration and release patterns, and gap models are well suited for evaluating carbon storage. An individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, is applied across Russia to estimate aboveground carbon storage under management scenarios. Current biomass from inventoried forests across Russia is compared to model-based estimates and potential levels of biomass are estimated for a set of simplified forestry practices. Current carbon storage in eastern Russia was lower than for the northwest and south, and lower than model estimates likely due to high rates of disturbance. Model-derived carbon storage in all regions was not significantly different between the simulated ‘current’ and hypothetical ‘even-aged’ management strategies using rotations of 150 and 210 years. Simulations allowing natural maturation and harvest after 150 years show a significant increase in aboveground carbon in all regions. However, it is unlikely that forests would be left unharvested to 150 years of age to attain this condition. These applications indicate the value of stand simulators, applied over broad regions such as Russia, as tools to evaluate the effect of management regimes on aboveground carbon storage.

Understanding origins and impacts of drought

Impacts of Extreme Weather on Natural, Socio-economic, and Land-Use Systems:Focus on the 2010 Summer Anomaly in the Volga Region;Yoshkar-Ola, Russia, 17–21 June 2012 In the summer of 2010 an extreme drought captured the attention of the media, the Russian government, and the international community. This drought resulted in widespread crop failure within one of the largest wheat-exporting regions of the world, leading to global grain price hikes. A joint NASA, Global Observations of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD), and Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) meeting at the Volga State University of Technology, held 2 years after the 2010 drought, provided for a wide-ranging and in-depth review of recent research on the drought and its impacts on ecosystems and society and drew participants from the United States, Europe, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

Land Management and the Impact of the 2010 Extreme Drought Event on the Agricultural and Ecological Systems of European Russia

Extreme heat waves and droughts are common natural disasters in European Russia. The frequency and severity of heat waves have been on the rise in recent decades across Europe—a trend that is projected to continue into the 21st century. These disasters have complex social, economic, and environmental consequences reaching beyond their geographical boundaries. The extreme heat wave of 2010 had global-scale impacts on food security and regional-scale impacts on ecosystem functioning, air quality, and health. The outcomes were exacerbated by the forestry management and crop rotation practices employed in the region. The century-long economic preference for fast-growing conifers resulted in large uniform single-species even-aged pine stands, which are at least 2.5 times more likely to support fire ignition and to spread than dark-coniferous or mixed stands. Although extreme conditions result in fires that burn through all forest types indiscriminately, uniform pine stands encourage rapid fire growth and spread to uncontrollable levels. Similarly, a recent focus on more economically profitable late-spring crops resulted in the long-term depletion of soil moisture from expanded sunflower and corn cropping, which resulted in decreased soil moisture storage across cultivated lands, leaving them vulnerable to even minor droughts. The major drought of 2010 led to widespread crop yield declines and failure; however, only 2 % of the fields with late-spring crops that were cultivated in 5 of 10 years were impacted by drought, versus 63 % of comparable fields where late spring crops were planted in 8 of the 10 years.