Oliver Blatchford

Outpatient management of patients with low-risk upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage: multicentre validation and prospective evaluation

BACKGROUND Upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage is a frequent reason for hospital admission. Although most risk scoring systems for this disorder incorporate endoscopic findings, the Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score (GBS) is based on simple clinical and laboratory variables; a score of 0 identifies low-risk patients who might be suitable for outpatient management. We aimed to evaluate the GBS then assess the effect of a protocol based on this score for non-admission of low-risk individuals. METHODS Our study was undertaken at four hospitals in the UK. We calculated GBS and admission (pre-endoscopy) and full (post-endoscopy) Rockall scores for consecutive patients presenting with upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage. With receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we compared the ability of these scores to predict either need for clinical intervention or death. We then prospectively assessed at two hospitals the introduction of GBS scoring to avoid admission of low-risk patients. FINDINGS Of 676 people presenting with upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage, we identified 105 (16%) who scored 0 on the GBS. For prediction of need for intervention or death, GBS (area under ROC curve 0.90 [95% CI 0.88-0.93]) was superior to full Rockall score (0.81 [0.77-0.84]), which in turn was better than the admission Rockall score (0.70 [0.65-0.75]). When introduced into clinical practice, 123 patients (22%) with upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage were classified as low risk, of whom 84 (68%) were managed as outpatients without adverse events. The proportion of individuals with this condition admitted to hospital also fell (96% to 71%, p<0.00001). INTERPRETATION The GBS identifies many patients presenting to general hospitals with upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage who can be managed safely as outpatients. This score reduces admissions for this condition, allowing more appropriate use of in-patient resources.

Retrospective study of influence of deprivation on uptake of cardiac rehabilitation

Mortality from ischaemic heart disease is higher in Scotland than in most developed countries.1 Comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation after myocardial infarction, incorporating exercise training and lifestyle counselling, can reduce mortality and the rate of fatal reinfarction2 and also improve quality of life.3 Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with both an increased risk of developing myocardial infarction and a poorer prognosis afterwards.4 Our aim was to determine whether deprivation affected uptake of rehabilitation after myocardial infarction. Scottish morbidity record (SMR1) data were used to identify all patients discharged from Glasgow hospitals from 1 June 1994 to 31 November 1994 with an International Classification of Diseases (revision 9) code of 410 (myocardial infarction). Each patients age, sex, postcode, comorbidities, and consultant were recorded, together with whether they died before discharge. Postcodes …

Emergency medical admissions: taking stock and planning for winter.

Emergency medical admissions have risen by 50% since 1984 and now account for almost half of all NHS admissions.1 Through recurrent winter bed crises, disrupted elective admissions, growing waiting lists, and highly publicised interhospital transfers of seriously ill patients this continuing rise threatens the future of the NHS. Has anything changed since we last reviewed this problem?2 We now understand better the epidemiology of emergency medical admissions. Winter peaks principally reflect respiratory and cardiovascular illness.3 Nevertheless, twofold variations exist between individual hospitals in both admission rates and increases in rates.4 Whereas the proportion of the total population using inpatient hospital services has remained almost constant,5 the number of patients readmitted four or more times in a five year period doubled between 1981 and 1994. Age and deprivation take their toll. People aged over 65 account for only 15% of the Scottish population but 37% of emergency admissions.1 This proportion may have …

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Scotland 2000-2010: Improved outcomes but a significant weekend effect.

AIM To assess numbers and case fatality of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), effects of deprivation and whether weekend presentation affected outcomes. METHODS Data was obtained from Information Services Division (ISD) Scotland and National Records of Scotland (NRS) death records for a ten year period between 2000-2001 and 2009-2010. We obtained data from the ISD Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR01) database which holds data on inpatient and day-case hospital discharges from non-obstetric and non-psychiatric hospitals in Scotland. The mortality data was obtained from NRS and linked with the ISD SMR01 database to obtain 30-d case fatality. We used 23 ICD-10 (International Classification of diseases) codes which identify UGIB to interrogate database. We analysed these data for trends in number of hospital admissions with UGIB, 30-d mortality over time and assessed effects of social deprivation. We compared weekend and weekday admissions for differences in 30-d mortality and length of hospital stay. We determined comorbidities for each admission to establish if comorbidities contributed to patient outcome. RESULTS A total of 60643 Scottish residents were admitted with UGIH during January, 2000 and October, 2009. There was no significant change in annual number of admissions over time, but there was a statistically significant reduction in 30-d case fatality from 10.3% to 8.8% (P < 0.001) over these 10 years. Number of admissions with UGIB was higher for the patients from most deprived category (P < 0.05), although case fatality was higher for the patients from the least deprived category (P < 0.05). There was no statistically significant change in this trend between 2000/01-2009/10. Patients admitted with UGIB at weekends had higher 30-d case fatality compared with those admitted on weekdays (P < 0.001). Thirty day mortality remained significantly higher for patients admitted with UGIB at weekends after adjusting for comorbidities. Length of hospital stay was also higher overall for patients admitted at the weekend when compared to weekdays, although only reached statistical significance for the last year of study 2009/10 (P < 0.0005). CONCLUSION Despite reduction in mortality for UGIB in Scotland during 2000-2010, weekend admissions show a consistently higher mortality and greater lengths of stay compared with weekdays.

Is the Glasgow Blatchford score useful in the risk assessment of patients presenting with variceal haemorrhage

Background The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is a pre-endoscopic risk assessment tool for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. There are few data regarding use in patients with variceal bleeding, who are generally accepted as being at high risk. Aim The aim of the study was to assess GBS in correctly identifying patients with subsequently proven variceal bleeding as ‘high risk’ and to compare GBS, admission and full Rockall scores in predicting clinical endpoints in this group. Patients and methods Data on consecutive patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage presenting to four UK hospitals were collected. The GBS, admission and full Rockall scores were calculated and compared for the subgroup subsequently shown to have variceal bleeding. Area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to assess the scores ability to predict clinical endpoints within this variceal bleeding subgroup. Results A total of 1432 patients presented during the study period. Seventy-one (5%) had a final diagnosis of variceal bleeding. At presentation, none of this group had GBS less than 2, but six had an admission Rockall score of 0. In predicting need for blood transfusion, AUROC scores for GBS, full and admission Rockall scores were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.68, respectively. For endoscopic/surgical intervention the scores were 0.34, 0.51 and 0.55, respectively, and for predicting death the scores were 0.56, 0.72 and 0.70, respectively. None of these AUROC score comparisons were significant. Conclusion At presentation, GBS correctly identifies patients with variceal bleeding as high risk and appears superior to the admission Rockall score. However, GBS and both Rockall scores are poor at predicting clinical outcome within this group.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Scotland: evidence of recent increase in viral circulation in humans

Background Previous studies showed low levels of circulating hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Scotland. We aimed to reassess current Scottish HEV epidemiology. Methods: Blood donor samples from five Scottish blood centres, the minipools for routine HEV screening and liver transplant recipients were tested for HEV antibodies and RNA to determine seroprevalence and viraemia. Blood donor data were compared with results from previous studies covering 2004–08. Notified laboratory-confirmed hepatitis E cases (2009-16) were extracted from national surveillance data. Viraemic samples from blood donors (2016) and chronic hepatitis E transplant patients (2014–16) were sequenced. Results: Anti-HEV IgG seroprevalence varied geographically and was highest in Edinburgh where it increased from 4.5% in 2004–08) to 9.3% in 2014–15 (p = 0.001). It was most marked in donors < 35 years. HEV RNA was found in 1:2,481 donors, compared with 1:14,520 in 2011. Notified laboratory-confirmed cases increased by a factor of 15 between 2011 and 2016, from 13 to 206. In 2011–13, 1 of 329 transplant recipients tested positive for acute HEV, compared with six cases of chronic infection during 2014–16. Of 10 sequenced viraemic donors eight and all six patients were infected with genotype 3 clade 1 virus, common in European pigs. Conclusions: The seroprevalence, number of viraemic donors and numbers of notified laboratory-confirmed cases of HEV in Scotland have all recently increased. The causes of this change are unknown, but need further investigation. Clinicians in Scotland, particularly those caring for immunocompromised patients, should have a low threshold for testing for HEV.