Olivier Cappé

An Overview of Existing Methods and Recent Advances in Sequential Monte Carlo

It is now over a decade since the pioneering contribution of Gordon (1993), which is commonly regarded as the first instance of modern sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches. Initially focussed on applications to tracking and vision, these techniques are now very widespread and have had a significant impact in virtually all areas of signal and image processing concerned with Bayesian dynamical models. This paper is intended to serve both as an introduction to SMC algorithms for nonspecialists and as a reference to recent contributions in domains where the techniques are still under significant development, including smoothing, estimation of fixed parameters and use of SMC methods beyond the standard filtering contexts.

Continuous probabilistic transform for voice conversion

Voice conversion, as considered in this paper, is defined as modifying the speech signal of one speaker (source speaker) so that it sounds as if it had been pronounced by a different speaker (target speaker). Our contribution includes the design of a new methodology for representing the relationship between two sets of spectral envelopes. The proposed method is based on the use of a Gaussian mixture model of the source speaker spectral envelopes. The conversion itself is represented by a continuous parametric function which takes into account the probabilistic classification provided by the mixture model. The parameters of the conversion function are estimated by least squares optimization on the training data. This conversion method is implemented in the context of the HNM (harmonic+noise model) system, which allows high-quality modifications of speech signals. Compared to earlier methods based on vector quantization, the proposed conversion scheme results in a much better match between the converted envelopes and the target envelopes. Evaluation by objective tests and formal listening tests shows that the proposed transform greatly improves the quality and naturalness of the converted speech signals compared with previous proposed conversion methods.

Comparison of resampling schemes for particle filtering

This contribution is devoted to the comparison of various resampling approaches that have been proposed in the literature on particle filtering. It is first shown using simple arguments that the so-called residual and stratified methods do yield an improvement over the basic multinomial resampling approach. A simple counter-example showing that this property does not hold true for systematic resampling is given. Finally, some results on the large-sample behavior of the simple bootstrap filter algorithm are given. In particular, a central limit theorem is established for the case where resampling is performed using the residual approach.

On-line expectation–maximization algorithm for latent data models

In this contribution, we propose a generic online (also sometimes called adaptive or recursive) version of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm applicable to latent variable models of independent observations. Compared to the algorithm of Titterington (1984), this approach is more directly connected to the usual EM algorithm and does not rely on integration with respect to the complete data distribution. The resulting algorithm is usually simpler and is shown to achieve convergence to the stationary points of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the marginal distribution of the observation and the model distribution at the optimal rate, i.e., that of the maximum likelihood estimator. In addition, the proposed approach is also suitable for conditional (or regression) models, as illustrated in the case of the mixture of linear regressions model.

Adaptive importance sampling in general mixture classes

In this paper, we propose an adaptive algorithm that iteratively updates both the weights and component parameters of a mixture importance sampling density so as to optimise the performance of importance sampling, as measured by an entropy criterion. The method, called M-PMC, is shown to be applicable to a wide class of importance sampling densities, which includes in particular mixtures of multivariate Student t distributions. The performance of the proposed scheme is studied on both artificial and real examples, highlighting in particular the benefit of a novel Rao-Blackwellisation device which can be easily incorporated in the updating scheme.

Long-range dependence and heavy-tail modeling for teletraffic data

The analysis and modeling of computer network traffic is a daunting task considering the amount of available data. This is quite obvious when considering the spatial dimension of the problem, since the number of interacting computers, gateways and switches can easily reach several thousands, even in a local area network (LAN) setting. This is also true for the time dimension: Willinger and Paxson (see Ann. Statist., vol.25, no.5, p.1856-66, 1997) cite the figures of 439 million packets and 89 gigabytes of data for a single week record of the activity of a university gateway in 1995. The complexity of the problem further increases when considering wide area network (WAN) data. In light of the above, it is clear that a notion of importance for modern network engineering is that of invariants, i.e., characteristics that are observed with some reproducibility and independently of the precise settings of the network under consideration. In this tutorial article, we focus on two such invariants related to the time dimension of the problem, namely, long-range dependence, or self-similarity, and heavy-tail marginal distributions.

Sequential Monte Carlo smoothing with application to parameter estimation in nonlinear state space models

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces degeneracy of the approximation in the path space. However, when performing maximum likelihood estimation via the EM algorithm, all functionals involved are of additive form for a large subclass of models. To cope with the problem in this case, a modification of the standard method (based on a technique proposed by Kitagawa and Sato) is suggested. Our algorithm relies on forgetting properties of the filtering dynamics and the quality of the estimates produced is investigated, both theoretically and via simulations.

Reversible jump, birth-and-death and more general continuous time Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers

Reversible jump methods are the most commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo tool for exploring variable dimension statistical models. Recently, however, an alternative approach based on birth-and-death processes has been proposed by Stephens for mixtures of distributions. We show that the birth-and-death setting can be generalized to include other types of continuous time jumps like split-and-combine moves in the spirit of Richardson and Green. We illustrate these extensions both for mixtures of distributions and for hidden Markov models. We demonstrate the strong similarity of reversible jump and continuous time methodologies by showing that, on appropriate rescaling of time, the reversible jump chain converges to a limiting continuous time birth-and-death process. A numerical comparison in the setting of mixtures of distributions highlights this similarity.

Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation

We consider optimal sequential allocation in the context of the so-called stochastic multi-armed bandit model. We describe a generic index policy, in the sense of Gittins (1979), based on upper confidence bounds of the arm payoffs computed using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We consider two classes of distributions for which instances of this general idea are analyzed: The kl-UCB algorithm is designed for one-parameter exponential families and the empirical KL-UCB algorithm for bounded and finitely supported distributions. Our main contribution is a unified finite-time analysis of the regret of these algorithms that asymptotically matches the lower bounds of Lai and Robbins (1985) and Burnetas and Katehakis (1996), respectively. We also investigate the behavior of these algorithms when used with general bounded rewards, showing in particular that they provide significant improvements over the state-of-the-art.

Online EM Algorithm for Hidden Markov Models

Online (also called “recursive” or “adaptive”) estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modeling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that combines two key ideas. The first one, which is deeply rooted in the Expectation-Maximization (EM) methodology, consists in reparameterizing the problem using complete-data sufficient statistics. The second ingredient consists in exploiting a purely recursive form of smoothing in HMMs based on an auxiliary recursion. Although the proposed online EM algorithm resembles a classical stochastic approximation (or Robbins–Monro) algorithm, it is sufficiently different to resist conventional analysis of convergence. We thus provide limited results which identify the potential limiting points of the recursion as well as the large-sample behavior of the quantities involved in the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is numerically evaluated through simulations in the case of a noisily observed Markov chain. In this case, the algorithm reaches estimation results that are comparable to those of the maximum likelihood estimator for large sample sizes. The supplemental material for this article available online includes an appendix with the proofs of Theorem 1 and Corollary 1 stated in Section 4 as well as the MATLAB/OCTAVE code used to implement the algorithm in the case of a noisily observed Markov chain considered in Section 5.