Olivier Gimenez

REVIEW: Predictive ecology in a changing world

1. In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large-scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers). 2. Here, we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they are understood and used. 3. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational; and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow‐fast continuum – the covariation among life‐history traits describing species‐specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output – strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long‐lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short‐lived species. We tested this life‐history prediction by analysing long‐term time series of individual‐based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture‐recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short‐generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.

Statistical ecology comes of age

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Mapping and explaining wolf recolonization in France using dynamic occupancy models and opportunistic data

While large carnivores are recovering in Europe, assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because they are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to i) their imperfect detectability, ii) their dynamic ranges over time and iii) their monitoring at large scales consisting mainly of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. Here, we focused on wolves (Canis lupus) that have been recolonizing France since the early 90’s. We evaluated the sampling effort a posteriori as the number of observers present per year in a cell based on their location and professional activities. We then assessed wolf range dynamics from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and time- and space-varying sampling effort using dynamic site-occupancy models. Ignoring the effect of sampling effort on species detectability led to underestimating the number of occupied sites by more than 50% on average. Colonization appeared to be negatively influenced by the proportion of a site with an altitude higher than 2500m and positively influenced by the number of observed occupied sites at short and long-distances, forest cover, farmland cover and mean altitude. The expansion rate, defined as the number of occupied sites in a given year divided by the number of occupied sites in the previous year, decreased over the first years of the study, then remained stable from 2000 to 2016. Our work shows that opportunistic data can be analyzed with species distribution models that control for imperfect detection, pending a quantification of sampling effort. Our approach has the potential for being used by decision-makers to target sites where large carnivores are likely to occur and mitigate conflicts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Estimating individual fitness in the wild using capture–recapture data

The concept of Darwinian fitness is central in evolutionary ecology, and its estimation has motivated the development of several approaches. However, measuring individual fitness remains challenging in empirical case studies in the wild. Measuring fitness requires a continuous monitoring of individuals from birth to death, which is very difficult to get in part because individuals may or may not be controlled at each reproductive event and recovered at death. Imperfect detection hampers keeping track of mortality and reproductive events over the whole lifetime of individuals. We propose a new statistical approach to estimate individual fitness while accounting for imperfect detection. Based on hidden process modelling of longitudinal data on marked animals, we show that standard metrics to quantify fitness, namely lifetime reproductive success, individual growth rate and lifetime individual contribution to population growth, can be extended to cope with imperfect detection inherent to most monitoring programs in the wild. We illustrate our approach using data collected on individual roe deer in an intensively monitored population.

Social status mediates the fitness costs of infection with canine distemper virus in Serengeti spotted hyenas

Abstract The extent to which the fitness costs of infection are mediated by key life‐history traits such as age or social status is still unclear. Within populations, individual heterogeneity in the outcome of infection is the result of two successive processes; the degree of contact with the pathogen (exposure) and the immune response to infection. In social mammals, because individuals holding high social status typically interact more frequently with group members, they should be more often in contact with infected individuals than those of low social status. However, when access to resources is determined by social status, individuals with a high social status are often better nourished, have a greater opportunity to allocate resources to immune processes and therefore should have a smaller chance of succumbing to infection than individuals with low social status. We investigated the risk and fitness costs of infection during a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in a social carnivore, the spotted hyena, in the Serengeti National Park. We analysed two decades of detailed life‐history data from 625 females and 816 males using a multi‐event capture–mark–recapture model that accounts for uncertainty in the assignment of individual infection states. Cubs of mothers with a high social status had a lower probability of CDV infection and were more likely to survive infection than those with low social status. Subadult and adult females with high social status had a higher infection probability than those with low social status. Subadult females and pre‐breeder males that had recovered from CDV infection had a lower survival than susceptible ones. Our study disentangles the relative importance of individual exposure and resource allocation to immune processes, demonstrates fitness costs of infection for juveniles, particularly for those with low social status, shows that patterns of infection can be driven by different mechanisms among juveniles and adults and establishes a negative relationship between infection and fitness in a free‐ranging mammal. A http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13059/suppinfo is available for this article.

Evolutionary allometry reveals a shift in selection pressure on male horn size

How selection pressures acting within species interact with developmental constraints to shape macro‐evolutionary patterns of species divergence is still poorly understood. In particular, whether or not sexual selection affects evolutionary allometry, the increase in trait size with body size across species, of secondary sexual characters, remains largely unknown. In this context, bovid horn size is an especially relevant trait to study because horns are present in both sexes, but the intensity of sexual selection acting on them is expected to vary both among species and between sexes. Using a unique data set of sex‐specific horn size and body mass including 91 species of bovids, we compared the evolutionary allometry between horn size and body mass between sexes while accounting for both the intensity of sexual selection and phylogenetic relationship among species. We found a nonlinear evolutionary allometry where the allometric slope decreased with increasing species body mass. This pattern, much more pronounced in males than in females, suggests either that horn size is limited by some constraints in the largest bovids or is no longer the direct target of sexual selection in very large species.

Assessment of individual and conspecific reproductive success as determinants of breeding dispersal of female tree swallows: A capture–recapture approach

Abstract Breeding dispersal is a key process of population structure and dynamics and is often triggered by an individuals breeding failure. In both colonial and territorial birds, reproductive success of conspecifics (RSc) can also lead individuals to change breeding sites after a failure on a site. Yet, few studies have simultaneously investigated the independent contribution of individual reproductive success (RSi) and of RSc on dispersal decision. Here, we develop a modeling framework to disentangle the effects of RSi and RSc on demographic parameters, while accounting for imperfect individual detection and other confounding factors such as age or dispersal behavior in the previous year. Using a 10‐year capture–recapture dataset composed of 1,595 banded tree swallows, we assessed the effects of nonmanipulated RSi and RSc on female breeding dispersal in this semicolonial passerine. Dispersal was strongly driven by RSi, but not by RSc. Unsuccessful females were 9.5–2.5 times more likely to disperse than successful ones, depending if they had dispersed or not in the previous year, respectively. Unsuccessful females were also three times less likely to be detected than successful ones. Contrary to theoretical and empirical studies, RSc did not drive the decision to disperse but influenced the selection of the following breeding site once dispersal had been initiated. Because detection of individuals was driven by RSi, which was positively correlated to RSc, assuming a perfect detection as in previous studies may have lead us to conclude that RSc affected dispersal patterns, yet our approach corrected for this bias. Overall, our results suggest that the value and use of RSc as public information to guide dispersal decisions are likely dictated by multiple ecological determinants, such as landscape structure and extent, if this cue is indeed used.

Delivering the promises of trait‐based approaches to the needs of demographic approaches, and vice versa

Abstract Few facets of biology vary more than functional traits and life‐history traits. To explore this vast variation, functional ecologists and population ecologists have developed independent approaches that identify the mechanisms behind and consequences of trait variation. Collaborative research between researchers using trait‐based and demographic approaches remains scarce. We argue that this is a missed opportunity, as the strengths of both approaches could help boost the research agendas of functional ecology and population ecology. This special feature, which spans three journals of the British Ecological Society due to its interdisciplinary nature, showcases state‐of‐the‐art research applying trait‐based and demographic approaches to examine relationships between organismal function, life history strategies and population performance across multiple kingdoms. Examples include the exploration of how functional trait × environment interactions affect vital rates and thus explain population trends and species occurrence; the coordination of seed traits and dispersal ability with the pace of life in plants; the incorporation of functional traits in dynamic energy budget models; or the discovery of linkages between microbial functional traits and the fast–slow continuum. Despite their historical isolation, collaborative work between functional ecologists and population ecologists could unlock novel research pathways. We call for an integrative research agenda to evaluate which and when traits are functional, as well as their ability to describe and predict life history strategies and population dynamics. We highlight promising, complementary research avenues to overcome current limitations. These include a more explicit linkage of selection gradients in the context of functional trait–vital rate relationships, and the implementation of standardised protocols to track changes in traits and vital rates over time at the same location and individuals, thus allowing for the explicit incorporation of trade‐offs in analyses of covariation of functional traits and life‐history traits.

Longitudinal survey of two serotine bat (Eptesicus serotinus) maternity colonies exposed to EBLV-1 (European Bat Lyssavirus type 1): Assessment of survival and serological status variations using capture-recapture models

This study describes two longitudinal serological surveys of European Bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1) antibodies in serotine bat (Eptesicus serotinus) maternity colonies located in the North-East of France. This species is currently considered as the main EBLV-1 reservoir. Multievent capture-recapture models were used to determine the factors influencing bat rabies transmission as this method accounts for imperfect detection and uncertainty in disease states. Considering the period of study, analyses revealed that survival and recapture probabilities were not affected by the serological status of individuals, confirming the capacity of bats to be exposed to lyssaviruses without dying. Five bats have been found with EBLV-1 RNA in the saliva at the start of the study, suggesting they were caught during virus excretion period. Among these bats, one was interestingly recaptured one year later and harbored a seropositive status. Along the survey, some others bats have been observed to both seroconvert (i.e. move from a negative to a positive serological status) and serorevert (i.e. move from a positive to a negative serological status). Peak of seroprevalence reached 34% and 70% in site A and B respectively. On one of the 2 sites, global decrease of seroprevalence was observed all along the study period nuanced by oscillation intervals of approximately 2–3 years supporting the oscillation infection dynamics hypothesized during a previous EBLV-1 study in a Myotis myotis colony. Seroprevalence were affected by significantly higher seroprevalence in summer than in spring. The maximum time observed between successive positive serological statuses of a bat demonstrated the potential persistence of neutralizing antibodies for at least 4 years. At last, EBLV-1 serological status transitions have been shown driven by age category with higher seroreversion frequencies in adults than in juvenile. Juveniles and female adults seemed indeed acting as distinct drivers of the rabies virus dynamics, hypothesis have been addressed but their exact role in the EBLV-1 transmission still need to be specified.