Olle Eriksson

PREDICTING BREAST CANCER RECURRENCE

The prognostic value of 435 cytochemical, cytometrical, morphological, epidemiological, and clinical variables was analyzed in a prospective study of 179 breast cancer patients followed for five years after mastectomy. A variable reduction was obtained by first selecting variables correlated with recurrence rate in direct (Students t test) or correlation analysis with consideration of the type of variable analyzed (nominal, interval, ordinal). The 20 variables most strongly correlated with recurrence were analyzed by logistic stepwise regression analysis in order to find out what combination of variables had most discriminatory power in predicting recurrence. It was found that axillary metastization as such was correlated with a combination of variables describing mitotic frequency, size of primary tumor and differentiation of the primary tumor (average cluster size in fine‐needle biopsies). It was also found that there was a strong time dependency in the predictive power of the variables, so that different variable combinations predicted the recurrence rate during the first 2.5 year period (size of axillary metastases and primary tumor, number of lymphocytes around the tumor, mitotic frequency, and degree of differentiation) compared with the second 2.5 year period (variance of DNA content among tumor cell nuclei, number of lymphocytes around the tumor, occurrence of multiple tumors in the operated breast and occurrence of breast cancer among relatives). While other factors previously shown to be correlated with risk of recurrence were also found to be positively correlated here, they were neither as highly predictive as, nor did they increase the predictive value of the above mentioned combined variables. The current study strongly emphasizes that, at the present time, studies of recurrence prediction in human breast cancer should be based on an optimal combination of a number of variables which, independently, influence the prognosis. Further, the current study indicates that prerequisite methods for predicting breast cancer recurrence exist today.