Olle Westerlund

Employment Opportunities, Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.

Marital Matching and Earnings Evidence from the Unmarried Population in Sweden

Social scientists have devoted substantial research to economic basis for matching of men and women in marriage. A common feature of existing studies is their reliance on samples of married couples. The principal shortcoming of spouse data is that spouses’ earnings correlations are contaminated by the partners’ behaviors and other events that occur after marriage and affect their earnings. This study addresses that problem by exploiting a longitudinal data file from the Swedish population. By selecting a sample of married couples in a given year, we retreat through the file to years before the marriage. Using data from the spouses’ single years, we apply the correlation methodology to their earnings. Evidence from the model supports positive assortative mating.

Internal migration in Sweden: the effects of mobility grants and regional labour market conditions.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether variations in mobility grants have affected internal migration in Sweden. The paper also contains an exploration of how changing labour market conditions influence the migratory behaviour of the unemployed in comparison with other individuals. The results indicate that total migration flows respond to changes in labour market conditions in accordance with predictions from economic theory. This finding seems mainly to stem from the migratory behaviour of the unemployed. Furthermore, non-matching migration subsidies at the levels employed are not found to be migration enhancing. Copyright Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 1998.

Migration and Self-Selection: Measured Earnings and Latent Characteristics

Research in regional and labor economics has established that economic incentives play a significant role in the process of internal migration. The most common approach is to view migration as a form of human capital investment undertaken by individuals who expect to benefit from the standpoint of increased earnings. One of the central concepts in these models is self-selection. Individuals who self-select the option of migration tend to differ from the nonmigrant population in ways that are not measured in most data sets. The contribution of this paper is in its distinction between two aspects of migrant selection. On one hand, some workers possess unmeasured traits that might simultaneously affect their wages and their propensity to engage in risky human capital investment such as migration. On the other hand, measured earnings might exert a direct effect on migration. Based on samples of employed Swedish males and females at two points in time, this study seeks first to examine whether migration between the two periods occurs in the presence of correlation between unmeasured factors present in both earnings during the first period and the subsequent decision to migrate. Second, it looks for an explicit role of earnings per se in the migration decision. Results of the study provide support for selection based on unmeasured traits for both genders. For females, there is also evidence of selection based on measured earnings.

Marital status and risk of dementia: a nationwide population-based prospective study from Sweden

Objectives To examine the association between marital status and dementia in a cohort of young-old (50–64) and middle-old (65–74) adults, and also whether this may differ by gender. Design Prospective population-based study with follow-up time of up to 10 years. Setting Swedish national register-based study. Participants 2 288 489 individuals, aged 50–74 years, without prior dementia diagnosis at baseline. Dementia was identified using the Swedish National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Outcome measures The influence of marital status on dementia was analysed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted stepwise for multiple covariates (model 1: adjusted for age and gender; and model 2: additionally adjusted for having adult children, education, income and prior cardiovascular disease). Results During follow-up, 31 572 individuals in the study were identified as demented. Cox regression showed each non-married subcategory to be associated with a significantly higher risk of dementia than the married group, with the highest risk observed among people in the young-old age group, especially among those who were divorced or single (HRs 1.79 vs 1.71, fully adjusted model). Analyses stratified by gender showed gender differences in the young-old group, with indications of divorced men having a higher relative risk compared with divorced women (HRs 2.1 vs 1.7, only-age adjusted model). However, in the fully adjusted model, these differences were attenuated and there was no longer any significant difference between male and female participants. Conclusions Our results suggest that those living alone as non-marrieds may be at risk for early-onset and late-onset dementia. Although more research is needed to understand the underlying mechanism by which marital status is associated with dementia, this suggests that social relationships should be taken seriously as a risk factor for dementia and that social-based interventions may provide an opportunity to reduce the overall dementia risk.

The relationship between marital and parental status and the risk of dementia.

BACKGROUND This study examines the association between marital and parental status and their individual and combined effect on risk of dementia diseases in a population-based longitudinal study while controlling for a range of potential confounders, including social networks and exposure to stressful negative life events. METHODS A total of 1,609 participants without dementia, aged 65 years and over, were followed for an average period of 8.6 years (SD = 4.8). During follow-up, 354 participants were diagnosed with dementia. Cox regression was used to investigate the effect of marital and parental status on risk of dementia. RESULTS In univariate Cox regression models (adjusted for age as time scale), widowed (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-1.78), and not having children (HR 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.06) were significantly associated with incident dementia. In multivariate analyses that included simultaneously marital and parental status and covariates that were found to be significant in univariate models (p < 0.10), the HR was 1.30 (95% CI = 1.01-1.66) for widowed, and 1.51 (95% CI = 1.08-2.10) for those not having children. Finally, a group of four combined factors was constructed: married parents (reference), married without children, widowed parents, and widowed without children. The combined effect revealed a 1.3 times higher risk (95% CI = 1.03-1.76) of dementia in widow parents, and a 2.2 times higher risk (95% CI = 1.36-3.60) in widowed persons without children, in relation to married parents. No significant difference was observed for those being married and without children. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that marital- and parental status are important risk factors for developing dementia, with especially increased risk in those being both widowed and without children.

Is Your Commute Killing You? On the Mortality Risks of Long-Distance Commuting

There is a general belief that expanding labour-market regions, triggered by increased commuting, have positive economic effects on individuals, firms, and society. Recently, however, scholars have reported possible negative outcomes related to health and well-being. Based on these findings, this study addresses the association between long-distance commuting, and mortality. Using longitudinal individual data from between 1985 and 2008, focusing on 55-year-olds in 1994, we model mortality through propensity score matching and Kaplan–Meyer estimates of survival among long-distance commuters and matched controls from the population travelling short distances to work. The results indicate that women who have experienced long-distance commuting face a significantly higher mortality risk compared with women with short commutes to work. This seems to be driven by variations in income and education: for example, for women with long-distance commuting experience, substantially lower survival rates are found among those with low education and low income. A very different picture emerges for men, for whom mortality risks do not seem to be associated with long-distance commuting. Our findings suggest that men and women are subject to different mechanisms regarding the nexus between commuting and mortality.

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐Term Follow‐Up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference-in-differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.

Regional Sorting of Human Capital: The Choice of Location among Young Adults in Sweden

Berck P., Tano, S. and Westerlund O. Regional sorting of human capital: the choice of location among young adults in Sweden, Regional Studies. Migration rates are highest among young adults, especially students, and their location choices affect the regional distribution of human capital, growth and local public sector budgets. Using Swedish register data on young adults, the choice of whether to enrol in education and the choice of location are estimated jointly. The results indicate a systematic selection into investment in further education based on school grades and associated preferences for locations with higher per capita tax bases. For students, the estimates indicate lower preferences for locations with higher shares of older people. The importance of family networks for the choice of location is confirmed.

Education and retirement: Does University education at mid-age extend working life?

To our knowledge, this paper provides the first study evaluating the effects of higher education for adults on the timing of retirement. Using detailed longitudinal population register data 1982–2010, we track first-time enrollees in higher education in 1992–1993. Our sample is aged 42–55 at the time of enrollment and thus aged 60–73 in 2010. We find that higher education increases labor market survival rates when aged 61–66 by about 5 percentage points. The estimates represent relatively large effects. Tentative calculations indicate that if enrollment occurs at age 42, the retirement delay represents about one percent in yearly earnings returns per year of tertiary education.JEL classificationH52, H55, I28