Olumuyiwa Adedeji

The size and sustainability of the Nigerian current account deficits

This paper uses two different criteria -- a set of macroeconomic indicators and the intertemporal model of the current account -- to examine the excessiveness and sustainability of Nigerian current account deficits over the period 1960-2003. Our analysis shows excessive reliance on oil revenues, misperception of temporary increases in oil prices as permanent ones and structural weaknesses of the economy resulting in unsustainable current account deficits and external crisis, necessitating the adoption of the Structural Adjustment Program in 1986. However, both the macroeconomic indicators and the intertemporal model point to an improved current account position over the past decade. The paper also presents empirical results from the application of the Present Value Model of the Current Account (PYMCA) to Nigeria. Comparison of the estimated optimal and actual current account balances shows several years with excessive current account deficits. Further, these excessive current account deficits were driven by consumption tilting.

Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Macroeconomic Analysis

This study establishes a framework for analyzing the major determinants of inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. An empirical model was estimated by taking into consideration disequilibria in the markets for money, foreign exchange, and goods. Results strongly support the need for a sustained prudent monetary policy in order to reduce inflation and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The estimation shows that an excess money supply generates an increase in the rate of inflation that, in turn, intensifies asset substitution (from money to foreign exchange), thereby weakening real demand for money and exerting pressures on the foreign exchange market. The study also found that a permanent rise in real income tends to increase the real demand for money and reduces inflation in the long run.

Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation in the Dominican Republic during 1991-2002, a period characterized by remarkable macroeconomic stability and growth. By developing a parsimonious and empirically stable error-correction model using quarterly observations, the paper finds that inflation is explained by changes in monetary aggregates, real output, foreign inflation, and the exchange rate.

Consumption-Based Interest Rate and the Present-Value Model of the Current Account—Evidence from Nigeria

This paper presents a model of current account determination, based upon the permanent-income hypothesis. A present-value relationship among the current account, changes in net output, the exchange rate and the terms of trade is derived and the implications of such a relationship are tested using data for Nigeria during 1960-97. This paper presents a model of current account determination, based upon the permanent-income hypothesis. A present-value relationship among the current account, changes in net output, the exchange rate and the terms of trade is derived and the implications of such a relationship are tested using data for Nigeria during 1960-97.

Fiscal sustainability in a panel of Asian countries

Panel cointegration techniques indicate that government revenue (REV) and expenditure (EXP) in a panel of five Asian economies for the period 1974 to 2001 were nonstationary and cointegrated series. However, the cointegration coefficient was significantly less than unity, indicating ‘weak’ fiscal sustainability and the likelihood that policy measures would be needed to put the public finances on a more sustainable basis.

Inclusive Growth; An Application of the Social Opportunity Function to Selected African Countries

The inclusiveness of growth depends on the extent of access to economic and social opportunities. This paper applies the concept of social opportunity function to ascertain the inclusiveness of growth episodes in selected African countries. Premised on the concept of social welfare function, inclusive growth is associated with increased average opportunities available to the population and improvement in their distribution. The paper establishes that the high growth episodes in the last decade in the selected countries came with increased average opportunities in education and health; but distribution of such opportunities varied across countries, depending on the country-specific policies underpining the growth episodes.

The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa

This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized their foreign exchange regimes. The study assesses the relationship between (i) growth and various determinants, including the exchange regime, the real exchange rate, and current account liberalization; and (ii) inflation and various determinants, including lagged inflation, the nominal exchange rate, the exchange regime, and liberalization. We find that in our sample, for the determinants of growth, investment and the real exchange rate are significant determinants but not the exchange regime or liberalization; and for inflation, the lagged inflation rate, nominal exchange rate, and the de facto regime are significant. Exchange rate pass-through is limited.

Inflation dynamics in a small emerging market

This study investigates the determinants of inflation in the Dominican Republic during 1991 to 2002, a period characterized by remarkable macroeconomic stability and growth. By developing a parsimonious and empirically stable error correction model using quarterly observations, the study finds that inflation is explained by changes in monetary aggregates, real output, foreign inflation and the exchange rate. Long-run relationships in the money and traded goods markets are found to exist, but only the disequilibrium from the money market exerts a significant impact on inflation.

Fiscal decentralization and fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies

Results using event study analysis based on a data panel of expenditure and revenue developments in emerging market economies during 1972–2001 indicate that subnational governments supported fiscal consolidation efforts by cutting their capital expenditure and increasing their revenues.

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

What constitutes fiscal space or a prudent level of debt to conduct countercyclical policy while ensuring debt sustainability? This paper addresses the question by exploring the relationship between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and the effective interest rate. This proposed approach is useful in situations where the lack of relevant data makes it difficult to estimate detailed fiscal reaction functions. Applying this approach to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) and based on various debt ceiling assumptions, we find that about 60 percent of these countries presently have fiscal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the availability of domestic and external financing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to have more fiscal space, and countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in conflict and fragile states, tend to lack fiscal space.