Oluwatomisin Ogundipe

Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

Nigeria being a mono-product economy, where the main export commodity is crude oil, changes in oil prices has implications for the Nigerian economy and, in particular, exchange rate movements. The latter is mostly important due to the double dilemma of being an oil exporting and oil-importing country, a situation that emerged in the last decade. The study examined the effects of oil price, external reserves and interest rate on exchange rate volatility in Nigeria using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2011. The theoretical framework of this study is based on Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasity modeled by Tim Bolerslev (1986) and Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedastic modeled by Daniel Nelson (1991). These models were used to estimate the relationship between oil price changes and exchange rate. Relevant descriptive and econometric analyses were employed. The econometric tests adopted include the unit root tests, Johansen co-integration technique and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM); the time series property examined shows that all the variables were stationary at first difference. The long run relationship among the variables was determined using the Johansen Co-integration technique while the vector correction mechanism was used to examine the speed of adjustment of the variables from the short run dynamics to the long run. It was observed that a proportionate change in oil price leads to a more than proportionate change in exchange rate volatility in Nigeria; which implies that exchange rate is susceptible to changes in oil price. The study therefore recommend that the Nigeria government should diversify from the Oil sector to other sectors of the economy so that Crude oil will no longer be the mainstay of the economy and frequent changes in crude oil price will not influence exchange rate volatility significantly in Nigeria.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Development in Nigeria

The study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development using an extended neoclassical model for the period 1970-2013. The study incorporates the uniqueness of the Nigerian economy by controlling for the role of institutions, technology, emissions, and economic structure in the electricity consumption-development argument. The study adopted a cointegration analysis based on the Johansen and Juselius (1981) maximum Likelihood approach and a vector error correction model. In order to ensure robustness, the study adopted the wald block endogeneity causality test to ascertain the direction of causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic development. The study found an existence of long-run cointegration equation with electricity consumption inversely related to economic development. Likewise, the vector error correction model failed to reject the null hypothesis of non-convergence in the long-run. Finally, the study found evidence supporting unidirectional causal relationship running from economic development to electricity consumption

Coverage and determinants of childhood immunization in Nigeria: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION The proportion of fully immunized children in Nigeria is reportedly low. There are concerns over national immunization data quality, with this possibly limiting country-wide response. We reviewed publicly available evidence on routine immunization across Nigeria to estimate national and zonal coverage of childhood immunization and associated determinants. METHODS A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online (AJOL) was conducted. We included population-based studies on childhood immunization in Nigeria. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted on extracted crude rates to arrive at national and zonal pooled estimates for the country. RESULTS Our search returned 646 hits. 21 studies covering 25 sites and 26,960 children were selected. The estimated proportion of fully immunized children in Nigeria was 34.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.0-41.9), with South-south zone having the highest at 51.5% (95% CI: 20.5-82.6), and North-west the lowest at 9.5% (95% CI: 4.6-14.4). Mothers social engagements (OR=4.0, 95% CI: 1.9-8.1) and vaccines unavailability (OR=3.9, 95% CI: 1.2-12.3) were mostly reported for low coverage. Other leading determinants were vaccine safety concerns (OR=3.0, 95% CI: 0.9-9.4), mothers low education (OR=2.5, 95% CI: 1.8-3.6) and poor information (OR=2.0, 95% CI: 0.8-4.7). CONCLUSION Our study suggests a low coverage of childhood immunization in Nigeria. Due to the paucity of data in the Northern states, we are still uncertain of the quality of evidence presented. It is hoped that this study will prompt the needed research, public health and policy changes toward increased evenly-spread coverage of childhood immunization in the country.

Health aid and child mortality in Africa: Evidence from disaggregated analysis

Background: The international development community has been instrumental in eliniminating child deaths via its major intervention programmes, especially as it relates to bridging the finance gap of developing countries. The paper assesses the effect of health aid and its sub-categories on child mortality. Method: This was achieved by employing the System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) dynamic panel data estimator approach. Findings :The study found that health targeted aid was capable of reducing child death but its effectiveness declined by about 40 percent and 80 percent when controlled for institutional quality and socio-political instability respectively. Among the sub-categories, child health outcome was more responsive to aid targeting child health, newborn health, maternal health and malaria control. Conclusion: The evidence obtained would be useful in channeling resources towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3, which entails ending preventable deaths of children under 5 years of age.

Public Health Measures and Child Health in Sub-Saharan Africa: Accessing the Impact of the Millennium Development Goal

The study investigates the role of public health measures on child health in developing Africa for the period 1990-2013 using a dynamic panel approach. Among others, the study examines the effect of millennium development intervention programme on child health outcomes. Our analysis reveals MDG intervention as extremely pertinent in reducing the incidence of child mortality in Africa. It implies that introduction of MDGs culminates into increasing the rate of child survival in Africa. Similarly, maternal literacy, maternal health and other child protective measures adopted were found to be statistically significant in improving child health outcomes. The proportion of under-five mortality (proxy for child health) responds more strongly and negatively to immunization coverage, exclusive breastfeeding and DPT vaccines. On the other hand, the quality of institution contributively impact under-five mortality in Africa. Finally, there is need to strengthen institutional arrangement, ensure compulsory basic education for women and strengthen the health system to achieve full packages of intervention, curtain the rising incidence of child deaths and attain the MDGs.