Ondra Kamenik
International Monetary Fund
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Publication
Featured researches published by Ondra Kamenik.
Archive | 2013
Ioan Carabenciov; Charles Freedman; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Laxton; Ondra Kamenik; Peter B. Manchev
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Archive | 2015
Ali Alichi; Kevin Clinton; Charles Freedman; Ondra Kamenik; Michel Juillard; Douglas Laxton; Jarkko Turunen; Hou Wang
The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control approach to monetary policy, which includes the publication of a baseline forecast and a description of the uncertainties around that outlook, combined with an improvement in the Fed’s communications toolkit, could further enhance the effectiveness of Fed policy. In the current conjuncture, such a risk management approach to monetary policy would result in both a later liftoff of policy rates and a modest, but planned, overshooting of inflation.
How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada | 2016
Maurice Obstfeld; Kevin Clinton; Ondra Kamenik; Douglas Laxton; Yulia Ustyugova; Hou Wang
Routine publication of the forecast path for the policy interest rate (i.e. “conventional forward guidance”) would improve the transparency of monetary policy. It would also improve policy effectiveness through its influence on expectations, particularly when there is a risk of low inflation, and the policy rate is constrained by the effective lower bound. Model simulations indicate that a potent macroeconomic strategy, for returning the Canadian economy to potential, combines conventional forward guidance with a fiscal stimulus. As a response to the effective lower bound constraint, and the decline in the world equilibrium real interest rate, this strategy is preferable to raising the inflation target.
Archive | 2017
Jaromir Benes; Kevin Clinton; asish thomas george; Pranav Gupta; Joice John; Ondra Kamenik; Douglas Laxton; Pratik Mitra; G.V. Nadhanael; Rafael Portillo; Hou Wang; Fan Zhang
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Archive | 2017
Jaromir Benes; Kevin Clinton; asish thomas george; Joice John; Ondra Kamenik; Douglas Laxton; Pratik Mitra; G.V. Nadhanael; Hou Wang; Fan Zhang
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.
International Journal of Forecasting | 2012
Jaromir Benes; Marcelle Chauvet; Ondra Kamenik; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula; Jack Selody
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control | 2008
Michael Juillard; Ondra Kamenik; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton
Archive | 2009
Ali Alichi; Huigang Chen; Kevin Clinton; Charles Freedman; Marianne Johnson; Ondra Kamenik; Turgut Kisinbay; Douglas Laxton
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking | 2008
Ondra Kamenik; Heesun Kiem; Vladimir Klyuev; Douglas Laxton
Computing in Economics and Finance | 2005
Michel Juillard; Ondra Kamenik