Osvaldo Larrañaga

Poverty and Income Distribution in Chile: 1987-1998 New Evidence.

This paper presents an update on the poverty and income distribution situation in Chile during the 90s. The analysis shows unambiguously that there was less poverty between 1994 and 1998 than in all earlier years, whether poverty is measured by the headco

Evaluating the Chile Solidario program: results using the Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases

This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the first cohorts of Chile Solidario, the most important anti-poverty program in Chile. The paper presents a description of the program, emphasizing the mechanism by which people were admitted into the program. We then propose evaluation strategies and discuss their validity. The final evaluation is conducted using a Matching estimator, and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential for this to be a valid evaluation method. The initial results using the Chile Solidario Panel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare and on take-up of subsidies and social programs. However, it is not possible to obtain reliable results due to data shortcomings, particularly the lack of baseline data. In order to solve the problem, we generated a database using six years of administrative data, including around 1,000,000 family records per year. A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed and implemented. Results are much more robust than those of the Chile Solidario Panel and show small, but clearly positive effects for several variables, especially the number of workers in the family, the percentage of workers in the family and the employment of the head of the family.

Inequality, Poverty and Social Policy: Recent Trends in Chile

This report aims to outline the main trends in income distribution and poverty in Chile, as well as the role of social policy in these areas. The report includes five sections. First, it discusses recent trends in income inequality and poverty, including a brief overview of the data available in the country. Second, it describes the country’s social protection programs, including with respect to coverage, financing and distributional impact. The third section examines how social policy has affected poverty reduction in recent decades, which is followed by an analysis of the relative stability of income inequality and its relation to public policy instruments. Section five presents future trends in social policy and their potential impact on inequality and poverty. Le present rapport passe en revue les principales tendances d’evolution de la distribution des revenus et de la pauvrete au Chili, ainsi que le role de la politique sociale dans ces domaines. Ce rapport comprend cinq parties. La premiere passe en revue les tendances recentes en matiere d’inegalite des revenus et de pauvrete et donne une vue d’ensemble des donnees disponibles correspondantes. La deuxieme partie decrit les programmes de protection sociale du pays, notamment leur etendue, leur financement et leur impact sur la distribution. La troisieme partie vise a determiner les effets exerces par la politique sociale sur la reduction de la pauvrete durant les recentes decennies. La quatrieme partie analyse la stabilite relative des inegalites de revenus et le lien avec les instruments de la politique publique. La cinquieme partie presente les tendances futures d’evolution de la politique sociale et son impact potentiel sur les inegalites et la pauvrete.

Impact Evaluation of Chile Solidario: Lessons and Policy Recommendations

This article evaluates the impact of the Chile Solidario anti-poverty programme. The evaluation is based on propensity score matching and a difference-in-difference estimator along with databases of Social Assistance Committee forms. The results show a positive but small impact on employment and housing along with a slightly negative impact on self-generated income. They also suggest that gains tend to be concentrated in the first phase, during which beneficiaries work with a family support professional, and that these benefits may not be sustainable. Participant families show absolute gains in income and employment, but these may be attributed to environmental conditions rather than the programme; this raises doubts about the premise that these families were initially marginalised from the economy and social networks.

Estabilidad en la desigualdad: Chile 1990-2003

Este estudio mide los impactos de los cambios en los determinantes de los ingresos en la desigualdad en el periodo entre 1990 y 2003, con el objeto de responder la pregunta sobre por que la distribucion del ingreso como un todo no ha cambiado. La metodologia utilizada es microsimulaciones de la distribucion de ingresos, que es la tecnica mas apropiada para analizar la relacion entre cambios en los factores determinantes y cambios en la desigualdad de ingresos. Se analiza el rol de los retornos, las tasas de participacion, decisiones ocupacionales, dotaciones de escolaridad, subsidios, pensiones y el tamano de los hogares. La inercia mostrada por la desigualdad refleja la interrelacion de factores que se cancelan unos a otros, otros que operan lentamente en el tiempo, y la emergencia de nuevos desarrollos que afectan la distribucion. Ademas, no se observan claras indicaciones de que esta situacion cambie en los proximos anos. Un progreso en esta area requerira una politica publica mas activa que en el pasado.