Øystein Gjerde

Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy

Abstract We investigate to what extent important results on relations among stock returns and macroeconomic factors from major markets are valid in a small, open economy by utilizing the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) approach on Norwegian data. Unlike many previous studies, which use a different methodology on other European markets, we establish several significant links. Consistent with US and Japanese findings, real interest rate changes affect both stock returns and inflation, and the stock market responds accurately to oil price changes. On the other hand, the stock market shows a delayed response to changes in domestic real activity.

Linkages among interest rates in the United States, Germany and Norway

The Johansen multivariate cointegration methodology is used to analyze relationships among short-term and long-term interest rates in the United States, Germany and Norway. A variance decomposition approach is applied to estimate the proportion of each interest rates forecast error variance attributable to innovations in the other interest rates. Impulse response functions are plotted to illustrate the speed with which interest rate events are transmitted between capital markets. The analyses illustrate that US interest rates have a significant influence on both German and Norwegian interest rates, while the reverse effect is modest. Norway is also strongly exposed to German interest rate movements, which reflects the consequences of a small country linking its currency to the value of European currencies. Copyright 2001 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Risk-based capital requirements and bank portfolio risk

Abstract We construct a linear programming model and analyze the effectiveness of R-B capital adequacy standards when bank deposits are fully insured. We derive a set of optimal asset risk weights. Given a constraint in raising equity and using these weights, the R-B capital plan is an effective regulation mechanism. Without a constraint on equity, maximum leverage restrictions and R-B capital plans are mutually exclusive alternatives. As we deviate from the optimal risk weights, a combination of a leverage restriction and a R-B equity ratio seems to be the more appropriate approach to controlling bank portfolio risk.

Linkages among European and world stock markets

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983-1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market returns forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the worlds two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency.

Performance evaluation of Norwegian mutual funds

Norwegian mutual fund managers claim that their funds are subject to different investment policies. We find no evidence of this. Funds belonging to the same management company have a similar risk profile. However, the risk profile of funds managed by different companies varies significantly. Although portfolio managers demonstrated market timing skills, our results indicate that their ability to successfully select stocks was limited. The scores on risk-adjusted performance measures showed that all funds outperformed the market in 1982-1984. Thereafter, the typical observation was below the market index benchmark value.

Evidence on Competitive Advantage and Superior Stock Market Performance

This article analyzes the value-relevance of industry-based and resource-based competitive advantage in a large sample of firms listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. We measure competitive advantage by a single variable and perform a new decomposition into its underlying sources. In 1986-2005, the industry-based and the resource-based competitive advantage explain more than 20% of abnormal stock market returns, accumulated over five years. The resource-based advantage is almost four times more important than the industry-based advantage. Differences in both the return and the risk capability of firms’ net assets relative to their industry peers are significant parts of the resource-based advantage, estimated at 60% and 40%, respectively.

Market efficiency in Scandinavian racetrack betting

This study analyzes Scandinavian racetrack betting markets. We discuss market efficiency and investor behavior in light of the fact that investors earn negative returns on average. Show bets on favorites in Norway yield a small positive return, while all the other betting markets are weak form efficient. We establish the favorite-longshot bias for quinella and exactor bettors, but not for win bettors. Our results can be explained by small pools and high track takes. Investors wagering at the racetrack have a different risk attitude than investors wagering off the track. We explain how our results should influence the design of betting products, especially with respect to the fraction of the pool returned to winners.