P. Aarts

Post-War Kuwait and the Process of Democratization: the Persistence of Political Tribalism

Wars may have both destructive and integrative effects. It is a truism to say that the Second Gulf War had more than devastating results for the Arab world as a whole, Kuwait and Iraq obviously being the most affected. Less natural is the assertion that the Gulf War may also have had a civilianizing effect, comparable to earlier European experiences.2 As Charles Tilly states, ‘While we can not quite say that war caused democracy, bargaining over the means of war certainly involved European citizens in the creation of checks on arbitrary power.’3 In a rather persuasible way, Tilly argues how the pursuit of war and military capacity, after having created national states as a sort of by-product, resulted in a kind of civilianization of government and domestic politics. This he dubs ‘the central paradox of European state formation’.4

The perils of the transfer of power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACTThe Saudi leadership feels threatened, first of all by Shi’ite Iran, but also by the extremist Islamic State (IS), the Muslim Brotherhood and even liberal intellectuals. Low oil prices cause growing deficits, while youth unemployment remains huge. Is the House of Saud on the verge of collapse? This paper first addresses the recent succession, as a result of which new King Salman’s young son, Muhammad bin Salman, accumulated unparalleled power. It asks whether his ambitious plans to modernize the Saudi economy can save the kingdom or if his fast rise will unleash a power struggle. This paper also looks at the war in Yemen which Muhammad bin Salman started and that might deepen the already problematic state of the Saudi economy. Finally, it explores a number of scenarios from muddling through to total implosion.

From pearls to plastics-from poverty to prosperity? Economic development policy in the Arab Gulf countries

Abstract A “free flow” of oil and gas from the Gulf region is a vital interest for the industrialised countries. Paul Aarts and Gep Eisenloeffel give a background to economic development policies in the region and how these affect the oil importing countries.