P. Hatzopoulos

THE MODELLING OF RECENT MORTALITY TRENDS IN UNITED KINGDOM MALE ASSURED LIVES

Deaths and exposures by individual calendar year and individual years of age for the U.K. male assured lives experience over the recent past are comprehensively modelled using generalised linear modelling techniques. Our principal objective is to develop a model which incorporates both the age variation in mortality and the underlying time trends in the mortality rates. The approach has considerable advantages over ad hoc methods of fitting parametric models to represent the age variation in mortality and then separately attempting to represent the time trends in the parameters of these models. The approach advocated can be seen as an extension to the conventional parametric graduation techniques used by the CMI Bureau to represent trends in mortality.

A probabilistic model for optimal insurance contracts against security risks and privacy violation in IT outsourcing environments

Day by day the provision of information technology goods and services becomes noticeably expensive. This is mainly due to the high labor cost for the service providers, resulting from the need to cover a vast variety of application domains and at the same time to improve or/and enhance the services offered in accordance to the requirements set by the competition. A business model that could ease the problem is the development or/and provision of the service by an external contractor on behalf of the service provider; known as Information Technology Outsourcing. However, outsourcing a service may have the side effect of transferring personal or/and sensitive data from the outsourcing company to the external contractor. Therefore the outsourcing company faces the risk of a contractor who does not adequately protect the data, resulting to their non-deliberate disclosure or modification, or of a contractor that acts maliciously in the sense that she causes a security incident for making profit out of it. Whatever the case, the outsourcing company is legally responsible for the misuse of personal data or/and the violation of an individual’s privacy. In this paper we demonstrate how companies adopting the outsourcing model can protect the personal data and privacy of their customers through an insurance contract. Moreover a probabilistic model for optimising, in terms of the premium and compensation amounts, the insurance contract is presented.

ON THE DUALITY OF ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPINNING THE CONSTRUCTION OF LIFE TABLES

We investigate the m~pllcat~ons of a dual approach to the graduation of the force of mortality based on the modelling of the exposures as gamma random variables, as opposed to the modelling of the numbers of deaths as Poisson random variables.

How Much Should We Pay for Security? (Invited Paper)

Information systems security has become a top priority issue for most organizations worldwide IT managers try to protect their systems through a series of technical security measures. Even though these measures can be determined through risk analysis, the appropriate amount that should be invested in Information Systems security is, by and large, determined empirically. Organizations would also wish to insure their information systems against potential security incidents. In this case both parties, namely the organization and the insurance company would be interested in calculating a fair, mutually beneficial premium. In this paper a probabilistic structure, in the form of a Markov model, is used to provide some insight into these issues.