P. J. Fraser

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios-which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions-to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

A history of chemically and radiatively important gases in air deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE

We describe in detail the instrumentation and calibrations used in the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), and the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and present a history of the majority of the anthropogenic ozone-depleting and climate-forcing gases in air based on these experiments. Beginning in 1978, these three successive automated high-frequency in situ experiments have documented the long-term behavior of the measured concentrations of these gases over the past 20 years, and show both the evolution of latitudinal gradients and the high-frequency variability due to sources and circulation. We provide estimates of the long-term trends in total chlorine contained in long-lived halocarbons involved in ozone depletion. We summarize interpretations of these measurements using inverse methods to determine trace gas lifetimes and emissions. Finally, we provide a combined observational and modeled reconstruction of the evolution of chlorocarbons by latitude in the atmosphere over the past 60 years which can be used as boundary conditions for interpreting trapped air in glaciers and oceanic measurements of chlorocarbon tracers of the deep oceanic circulation. Some specific conclusions are as follows: (1) International compliance with the Montreal Protocol is so far resulting in chlorofluorocarbon and chlorocarbon mole fractions comparable to target levels; (2) mole fractions of total chlorine contained in long-lived halocarbons (CCl 2 F 2 , CCl 3 F, CH 3 CCl 3 , CCl 4 , CHClF 2 , CCl 2 FCClF 2 , CH 3 Cl, CH 2 Cl 2 , CHCl 3 , CCl 2 =CCl 2 ) in the lower troposphere reached maximum values of about 3.6 ppb in 1993 and are beginning to slowly decrease in the global lower atmosphere; (3) the chlorofluorocarbons have atmospheric lifetimes consistent with destruction in the stratosphere being their principal removal mechanism; (4) multiannual variations in chlorofluorocarbon and chlorocarbon emissions deduced from ALE/GAGE/AGAGE data are consistent approximately with variations estimated independently from industrial production and sales data where available (CCl 2 F 2 (CFC-12) and CCl 2 FCClF 2 (CFC-113) show the greatest discrepancies); (5) the mole fractions of the hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, which are replacing the regulated halocarbons, are rising very rapidly in the atmosphere, but with the exception of the much longer manufactured CHClF 2 (HCFC-22), they are not yet at levels sufficient to contribute significantly to atmospheric chlorine loading. These replacement species could in the future provide independent estimates of the global weighted-average OH concentration provided their industrial emissions are accurately documented; (6) in the future, analysis of pollution events measured using high-frequency in situ measurements of chlorofluorocarbons and their replacements may enable emission estimates at the regional level, which, together with industrial end-use data, are of sufficient accuracy to be capable of identifying regional noncompliance with the Montreal Protocol.

Atmospheric Trends and Lifetime of CH3CCI3 and Global OH Concentrations.

Determination of the atmospheric concentrations and lifetime of trichloroethane (CH3CCI3) is very important in the context of global change. This halocarbon is involved in depletion of ozone, and the hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations determined from its lifetime provide estimates of the lifetimes of most other hydrogen-containing gases involved in the ozone layer and climate. Global measurements of trichloroethane indicate rising concentrations before and declining concentrations after late 1991. The lifetime of CH3CCI3 in the total atmosphere is 4.8 � 0.3 years, which is substantially lower than previously estimated. The deduced hydroxyl radical concentration, which measures the atmospheres oxidizing capability, shows little change from 1978 to 1994.

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978–1990

Atmospheric measurements at several surface stations made between 1978 and 1990 of the anthropogenic chemical compound 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform, CH3CCl3) show it increasing at a global average rate of 4.4 ± 0.2% per year (1σ) over this time period. The measured trends combined with industrial emission estimates are used in an optimal estimation inversion scheme to deduce a globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric (and total atmospheric) lifetime of 5.7 (+0.7, −0.6) years (1σ) and a weighted global average tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration of (8.7 ± 1.0) × 105 radical cm−3 (1σ). Inclusion of a small loss rate to the ocean for CH3CCl3 of 1/85 year−1 does not affect the stated lifetime but lowers the stated OH concentration to (8.1 ± 0.9) × 105 radical cm−3 (1σ). The rate of change of the weighted global average OH concentration over this time period is determined to be 1.0 ± 0.8% per year (1σ) which has major implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere and more specifically for methane (CH4), which like CH3CCl3 is destroyed primarily by OH radicals. Because the weighting strongly favors the tropical lower troposphere, this deduced positive OH trend is qualitatively consistent with hypothesized changes in tropical tropospheric OH and ozone concentrations driven by tropical urbanization, biomass burning, land use changes, and long-term warming. We caution, however, that our deduced rate of change in OH assumes that current industry estimates of anthropogenic emissions and our absolute calibration of CH3CCl3 are accurate. The CH3CCl3 measurements at our tropical South Pacific station (Samoa) show remarkable sensitivity to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which we attribute to modulation of cross-equatorial transport during the northern hemisphere winter by the interannually varying upper tropospheric zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific. Thus measurements of this chemical compound have led to the discovery of a previously unappreciated aspect of tropical atmospheric tracer transport.

Atmospheric Trends in Methylchloroform and the Global Average for the Hydroxyl Radical

Frequent atmospheric measurements of the anthropogenic compound methylchloroform that were made between 1978 and 1985 indicate that this species is continuing to increase significantly around the world. Reaction with the major atmospheric oxidant, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is the principal sink for this species. The observed mean trends for methylchloroform are 4.8, 5.4, 6.4, and 6.9 percent per year at Aldrigole (Ireland) and Cape Meares (Oregon), Ragged Point (Barbados), Point Matatula (American Samoa), and Cape Grim (Tasmania), respectively, from July 1978 to June 1985. These measured trends, combined with knowledge of industrial emissions, were used in an optimal estimation inversion scheme to deduce a globally averaged methylchloroform atmospheric lifetime of 6.3 (+ 1.2, -0.9) years (1σ uncertainty) and a globally averaged tropospheric hydroxyl radical concentration of (7.7 � 1.4) x 105 radicals per cubic centimeter (1σ uncertainty). These 7 years of gas chromatographic measurements, which comprise about 60,000 individual calibrated real-time air analyses, provide the most accurate estimates yet of the trends and lifetime of methylchloroform and of the global average for tropospheric hydroxyl radical levels. Accurate determination of hydroxyl radical levels is crucial to understanding global atmospheric chemical cycles and trends in the levels of trace gases such as methane.

Airborne gas chromatograph for in situ measurements of long-lived species in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

A new instrument, the Airborne Chromatograph for Atmospheric Trace Species IV (ACATS-IV), for measuring long-lived species in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is described. Using an advanced approach to gas chromatography and electron capture detection, the instrument can detect low levels of CFC-11 (CCl 3 F), CFC-12 (CCl 2 F 2 ), CFC-113 (CCl 2 F-CClF 2 ), methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ), carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), nitrous oxide N 2 O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), Halon-1211 (CBrClF 2 ), hydrogen (H 2 ), and methane (CH 4 ) acquired in ambient samples every 180 or 360 s. The instrument operates fully-automated onboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft on flights lasting up to 8 hours or more in duration. Recent measurements include 24 successful flights covering a broad latitude range (70°S-61°N) during the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (ASHOE/ MAESA) campaign in 1994.

Sulfur hexafluoride—A powerful new atmospheric tracer

Long-term observations of the atmospheric trace gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) at four background monitoring stations, Neumayer, Antarctica (1986–1994), Cape Grim, Tasmania (1978–1994), Izafna, Canary Islands (1991–1994) and Alert, Canada (1993–1994) are presented. These data sets are supplemented by two meridional profiles collected over the Atlantic Ocean (1990 and 1993) and occasional observations at the regional site Fraserdale, Canada (1994). The analytical system and the method of SF6 calibration are described. Compared with data from Neumayer and Izafia reported earlier, measurements are updated for all sites until the end of 1994 and the precision has improved by more than a factor of 2. With the Cape Grim archived air samples, the atmospheric SF6 chronology is extended by 8 more years back to 1978. For the period from January 1978 to December 1994 the data confirm a stable and unbroken quadratic rise in tropospheric SF6 from 0.50 to 3.11 ppt in the southern hemisphere and for July 1991 to December 1994 from 2.69 to 3.44 ppt in the northern hemisphere. The global mean tropospheric increase rate in late 1994 was 0.225 ppt yr−1 (6.9% yr−1). The long term trend and interhemispheric gradients are due to industrial production and emission, rising approximately linearly with time and located predominantly (94%) in the northern hemisphere. The interhemispheric exchange time (1.7 ± 0.2 yr) derived from SF6 ground level observations when using a two-box model of the atmosphere is considerably larger if compared to the exchange time derived from two- and three-dimensional models (1.1 yr). The chemical and biological inertness of SF6 up to stratospheric conditions results in an atmospheric lifetime of more than 800 years and makes SF6 a powerful tool for modelling transport processes in the atmosphere. Moreover, the tropospheric SF6 chronology is a very valuable input function for mixing studies in linked compartments like the stratosphere, the hydrosphere and the cryosphere.

Distribution of halon‐1211 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and the 1994 total bromine budget

We report here on the details of the first, in situ, real-time measurements of H-1211 (CBrClF2) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) mixing ratios in the stratosphere up to 20 km. Stratospheric air was analyzed for these gases and others with a new gas Chromatograph, flown aboard a National Aeronautics and Space Administration ER-2 aircraft as part of the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft mission conducted in 1994. The mixing ratio of SF6, with its nearly linear increase in the troposphere, was used to estimate the mean age of stratospheric air parcels along the ER-2 flight path. Measurements of H-1211 and mean age estimates were then combined with simultaneous measurements of CFC-11 (CCl3F), measurements of brominated compounds in stratospheric whole air samples, and records of tropospheric organic bromine mixing ratios to calculate the dry mixing ratio of total bromine in the lower stratosphere and its partitioning between organic and inorganic forms. We estimate that the organic bromine-containing species were almost completely photolyzed to inorganic species in the oldest air parcels sampled. Our results for inorganic bromine are consistent with those obtained from a photochemical, steady state model for stratospheric air parcels with CFC-11 mixing ratios greater than 150 ppt. For stratospheric air parcels with CFC-11 mixing ratios less than 50 ppt (mean age ≥5 years) we calculate inorganic bromine mixing ratios that are approximately 20% less than the photochemical, steady state model. There is a 20% reduction in calculated ozone loss resulting from bromine chemistry in old air relative to some previous estimates as a result of the lower bromine levels.

Methane, Carbon Monoxide and Methylchloroform in the Southern Hemisphere

New observational data on CH4, CO and CH3CCl3 in the southern hemisphere are reported. The data are analysed for long term trends and seasonal cycles. CH3CCl3 data are used to scale the OH fields incorporated in a two dimensional model, which in turn, is used to constrain the magnitude of a global CH4 source function. The possible causes of observed seasonality of CH3CCl3, CH4 and CO are identified, and several other aspects of observed CH4 variability are discussed.Possible future research directions are also given.

GAGE/AGAGE measurements indicating reductions in global emissions of CCl3F and CCl2F2 in 1992–1994

Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment/Advanced GAGE (GAGE/AGAGE) observations of CCl 3 F indicate that global concentrations of this compound reached a maximum in 1993 and decayed slightly in 1994; CCl 2 F 2 concentrations increased approximately 7 ppt in both 1993 and 1994. The observations suggest that world emissions in these two years were smaller than industry production figures would suggest and have decreased faster than expected under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. An analysis of regional pollution events at the Mace Head site suggest that industry may be underestimating the decline of emissions in Europe. It is argued, however, that the decline in European emissions is not biasing the background Mace Head measurements (or the GAGE global averages). Combining the chlorofluorocarbon measurements, including CCl 2 FCClF 2 , with GAGE/AGAGE measured global decreases in CH 3 CCl 3 and CCl 4 after 1992 and with Cape Grim archived air measurements of CHClF 2 , the measurements suggest that anthropogenic atmospheric chlorine loading from these six gases maximized in 1992 at 2.95 ± 0.04 ppb and that it had decreased by 0.02 ± 0.01 ppb by the beginning of 1995.