P. Kyle House

Paleoflood evidence for a natural upper bound to flood magnitudes in the Colorado River Basin

The existence of an upper limit to the magnitude of floods in a region is a long-standing and controversial hypothesis in flood hydrology. Regional envelope curves encompassing maximum flood magnitudes stabilize with progressive increases in the areal coverage and period of observation (Wolman and Costa, 1984). However, the short lengths of conventional gaging records limit substantial advances in testing whether this stabilization is evidence of an upper limit. In the Colorado River basin there are 32,120 station years of gage data, but the average period at a gaging station is only 20 years, with most stations having less than 70 years of observation. Paleoflood magnitudes derived from sediments of large prehistoric floods from 25 sites on rivers in Arizona and Utah provide additional data to extend the records of the largest floods. The paleoflood data identify the maximum flood discharges that have occurred on individual rivers over the last several hundred to several thousand years. Even with this increase in the observational period, the largest paleoflood discharges do not exceed the upper bound of maximum peak discharges delineated by the envelope curve derived from the available gaged and historical records. This result accords with the hypothesis of an upper physical limit for flood magnitudes and suggests that, for the Colorado River basin, the upper limit can be approximated by existing systematic and historical data for large floods. Similar relationships also hold when paleofloods and gaged records are presented for the subregion of southern Arizona.

River-evolution and tectonic implications of a major Pliocene aggradation on the lower Colorado River: The Bullhead Alluvium

The ∼200-m-thick riverlaid Bullhead Alluvium along the lower Colorado River downstream of Grand Canyon records massive early Pliocene sediment aggradation following the integration of the upper and lower Colorado River basins. The distribution and extent of the aggraded sediments record (1) evolving longitudinal profiles of the river valley with implications for changing positions of the river’s mouth and delta; (2) a pulse of rapid early drainage-basin erosion and sediment supply; and (3) constraints on regional and local deformation. The Bullhead Alluvium is inset into the Hualapai and Bouse Formations along a basal erosional unconformity. Its base defines a longitudinal profile interpreted as the incised end result after the Colorado River integrated through lake basins. Subsequent Bullhead aggradation, at ca. 4.5–3.5 Ma, built up braid plains as wide as 50 km as it raised the Colorado River’s grade. We interpret the aggradation to record a spike in sediment supply when river integration and base-level fall destabilized and eroded relict landscapes and Tertiary bedrock in the Colorado River’s huge catchment. Longitudinal profiles of the Bullhead Alluvium suggest ≥200 m post-Bullhead relative fault uplifts in the upper Lake Mead area, >100 m local subsidence in the Blythe Basin, and deeper subsidence of correlative deltaic sequences in the Salton Trough along the Pacific–North American plate boundary. However, regionally, for >500 km along the river corridor from Yuma, Arizona, to Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, the top of the Bullhead Alluvium appears to be neither uplifted nor tilted, sloping 0.5–0.6 m/km downstream like the gradient of a smaller late Pleistocene aggradation sequence. Perched outcrops tentatively assigned to the Bullhead Alluvium near the San Andreas fault system project toward a Pliocene seashore or bayline twice as distant (300–450 km) as either the modern river’s mouth or a tectonically restored 4.25 Ma paleoshore. We conclude that Bullhead aggradation peaked after 4.25 Ma, having lengthened the delta plain seaward by outpacing both 2 mm/yr delta subsidence and 43–45 mm/yr transform-fault offset of the delta. Post-Bullhead degradation started before 3.3 Ma and implies that the river profile lowered and shortened because sediment supply declined, and progradation was unable to keep up with subsidence and plate motion in the delta.

An integrated approach to flood hazard assessment on alluvial fans using numerical modeling, field mapping, and remote sensing

Millions of people in the western United States live near the dynamic, distributary channel networks of alluvial fans where flood behavior is complex and poorly constrained. Here we test a new comprehensive approach to alluvial-fan flood hazard assessment that uses four complementary methods: two-dimensional raster-based hydraulic modeling, satellite-image change detection, field-based mapping of recent flood inundation, and surficial geologic mapping. Each of these methods provides spatial detail lacking in the standard method and each provides critical information for a comprehensive assessment. Our numerical model simultaneously solves the continuity equation and Mannings equation (Chow, 1959) using an implicit numerical method. It provides a robust numerical tool for predicting flood flows using the large, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) necessary to resolve the numerous small channels on the typical alluvial fan. Inundation extents and flow depths of historic floods can be reconstructed with the numerical model and validated against field- and satellite-based flood maps. A probabilistic flood hazard map can also be constructed by modeling multiple flood events with a range of specified discharges. This map can be used in conjunction with a surficial geologic map to further refine floodplain delineation on fans. To test the accuracy of the numerical model, we compared model predictions of flood inundation and flow depths against field- and satellite-based flood maps for two recent extreme events on the southern Tortolita and Harquahala piedmonts in Arizona. Model predictions match the field- and satellite-based maps closely. Probabilistic flood hazard maps based on the 10 yr, 100 yr, and maximum floods were also constructed for the study areas using stream gage records and paleoflood deposits. The resulting maps predict spatially complex flood hazards that strongly reflect small-scale topography and are consistent with surficial geology. In contrast, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) based on the FAN model predict uniformly high flood risk across the study areas without regard for small-scale topography and surficial geology.

A geomorphologic and hydrologic evaluation of an extraordinary flood discharge estimate: Bronco Creek, Arizona

The Bronco Creek, Arizona flood of August 19, 1971, was an extraordinary and rare flash flood. The published peak discharge estimate of 2080 m3 s−1 makes it virtually the worlds largest known rainfall-generated flood to come from a 50-km2 basin. Previous workers have suggested that the peak discharge was overestimated based on its unlikely hydrological and hydraulic implications. In this study we reevaluate the Bronco Creek flood discharge by modeling peak discharges using relict high-water marks in bedrock canyon reaches near the mouths of the three major subbasins of the watershed. The new estimated peak discharge of 750 to 850 m3 s−1 is based on summing the subbasin estimates and correcting for omitted drainage area. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of site-specific and regional hydrological, meteorological, and geomorphological information support a lower peak discharge. We assessed preflood and postflood channel characteristics at the site of the original estimate using historical aerial photographs. Our analysis indicates that much of the discrepancy between the estimates may be explained by significant morphologic changes in the channel caused by the flood. The original estimate was made in a wide, high-gradient alluvial channel where the flood changed the channel pattern from braided with vegetated bars to straight, wide, and devoid of vegetation. It is also likely that net vertical scour occurred in the channel. Although our new estimate is much lower than the original estimate, it is consistent with the dominant trend in regional flood magnitude-drainage area relationships. By integrating hydraulic modeling of peak discharges in stable channel reaches with assessment of ancillary hydrological, meteorological, and geomorphological information, this study presents a viable approach to assessing the accuracy of extreme flood estimates in general. It also highlights potential uncertainties in estimating extreme flood discharges in steep, alluvial channels.

Review and analysis of the age and origin of the Pliocene Bouse Formation, lower Colorado River Valley, southwestern USA

The lower Pliocene Bouse Formation in the lower Colorado River Valley (southwestern USA) consists of basal marl and dense tufa overlain by siltstone and fine sandstone. It is locally overlain by and interbedded with sands derived from the Colorado River. We briefly review 87 Sr/ 86 Sr analyses of Bouse carbonates and shells and carbonate and gypsum of similar age east of Las Vegas that indicate that all of these strata are isotopically similar to modern Colorado River water. We also review and add new data that are consistent with a step in Bouse Formation maximum elevations from 330 m south of Topock Gorge to 555 m to the north. New geochemical data from glass shards in a volcanic ash bed within the Bouse Formation, and from an ash bed within similar deposits in Bristol Basin west of the Colorado River Valley, indicate correlation of the two ash beds and coeval submergence of both areas. The tuff bed is identified as the 4.83 Ma Lawlor Tuff derived from the San Francisco Bay region. We conclude, as have some others, that the Bouse Formation was deposited in lakes produced by first-arriving Colorado River water that entered closed basins inherited from Basin and Range extension, and estimate that first arrival of river water occurred ca. 4.9 Ma. If this interpretation is correct, addition of Bristol Basin to the Blythe Basin inundation area means that river discharge was sufficient to fill and spill a lake with an area of ∼10,000 km 2 . For spillover to occur, evaporation rates must have been significantly less in early Pliocene time than modern rates of ∼2–4 m/yr, and/or Colorado River discharge was significantly greater than the current ∼15 km 3 /yr. In this lacustrine interpretation, evaporation rates were sufficient to concentrate salts to levels that were hospitable to some marine organisms presumably introduced by birds.

Paleohydrology of flash floods in small desert watersheds in western Arizona

In this study, geological, historical, and meteorological data were combined to produce a regional chronology of flood magnitude and frequency in nine small basins (7–70 km2). The chronology spans more than 1000 years and demonstrates that detailed records of flood magnitude and frequency can be compiled in arid regions with little to no conventional hydrologic information. The recent (i.e., post-1950) flood history was evaluated by comparing a 50-year series of aerial photographs with precipitation data, ages of flood-transported beer cans, anthropogenic horizons in flood sediments, postbomb 14C dates on flotsam, and anecdotal accounts. Stratigraphic analysis of paleoflood deposits extended the regional flood record in time, and associated flood magnitudes were determined by incorporating relict high-water evidence into a hydraulic model. The results reveal a general consistency among the magnitudes of the largest floods in the historical and the paleoflood records and indicate that the magnitudes and relative frequencies of actual large floods are at variance with “100-year” flood magnitudes predicted by regional flood frequency models. This suggests that the predictive equations may not be appropriate for regulatory, management, or design purposes in the absence of additional, real data on flooding. Augmenting conventional approaches to regional flood magnitude and frequency analysis with real information derived from the alternative methods described here is a viable approach to improving assessments of regional flood characteristics in sparsely gaged desert areas.

Owyhee River intracanyon lava flows: Does the river give a dam?

Rivers carved into uplifted plateaus are commonly disrupted by discrete events from the surrounding landscape, such as lava flows or large mass movements. These disruptions are independent of slope, basin area, or channel discharge, and can dominate aspects of valley morphology and channel behavior for many kilometers. We document and assess the effects of one type of disruptive event, lava dams, on river valley morphology and incision rates at a variety of time scales, using examples from the Owyhee River in southeastern Oregon. Six sets of basaltic lava flows entered and dammed the river canyon during two periods in the late Cenozoic ca. 2 Ma–780 ka and 250–70 ka. The dams are strongly asymmetric, with steep, blunt escarpments facing up valley and long, low slopes down valley. None of the dams shows evidence of catastrophic failure; all blocked the river and diverted water over or around the dam crest. The net effect of the dams was therefore to inhibit rather than promote incision. Once incision resumed, most of the intracanyon flows were incised relatively rapidly and therefore did not exert a lasting impact on the river valley profile over time scales >10 6 yr. The net long-term incision rate from the time of the oldest documented lava dam, the Bogus Rim lava dam (≤1.7 Ma), to present was 0.18 mm/yr, but incision rates through or around individual lava dams were up to an order of magnitude greater. At least three lava dams (Bogus Rim, Saddle Butte, and West Crater) show evidence that incision initiated only after the impounded lakes filled completely with sediment and there was gravel transport across the dams. The most recent lava dam, formed by the West Crater lava flow around 70 ka, persisted for at least 25 k.y. before incision began, and the dam was largely removed within another 35 k.y. The time scale over which the lava dams inhibit incision is therefore directly affected by both the volume of lava forming the dam and the time required for sediment to fill the blocked valley. Variations in this primary process of incision through the lava dams could be influenced by additional independent factors such as regional uplift, drainage integration, or climate that affect the relative base level, discharge, and sediment yield within the watershed. By redirecting the river, tributaries, and subsequent lava flows to different parts of the canyon, lava dams create a distinct valley morphology of flat, broad basalt shelves capping steep cliffs of Tertiary sediment. This stratigraphy is conducive to landsliding and extends the effects of intracanyon lava flows on channel geomorphology beyond the lifetime of the dams.

Detrital zircon U-Pb provenance of the Colorado River: A 5 m.y. record of incision into cover strata overlying the Colorado Plateau and adjacent regions

New detrital zircon U-Pb age distributions from 49 late Cenozoic sandstones and Holocene sands (49 samples, n = 3922) record the arrival of extra-regional early Pliocene Colorado River sediment at Grand Wash (western USA) and downstream locations ca. 5.3 Ma and the subsequent evolution of the river’s provenance signature. We define reference age distributions for the early Pliocene Colorado River (n = 559) and Holocene Colorado River (n = 601). The early Pliocene river is distinguished from the Holocene river by (1) a higher proportion of Yavapai-Mazatzal zircon derived from Rocky Mountain basement uplifts relative to Grenville zircon from Mesozoic supra crustal rocks, and (2) distinctive (∼6%) late Eocene–Oligocene (40–23 Ma) zircon reworked from Cenozoic basins and volcanic fields in the southern Rocky Mountains and/or the eastern Green River catchment. Geologic relationships and interpretation of 135 published detrital zircon age distributions throughout the Colorado River catchment provide the interpretative basis for modeling evolution of the provenance signature. Mixture modeling based upon a modified formulation of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic indicate a subtle yet robust change in Colorado River provenance signature over the past 5 m.y. During this interval the contribution from Cenozoic strata decreased from ∼75% to 50% while pre-Cretaceous strata increased from ∼25% to 50%. We interpret this change to reflect progressive erosional incision into plateau cover strata. Our finding is consistent with geologic and thermochronologic studies that indicate that maximum post–10 Ma erosion of the Colorado River catchment was concentrated across the eastern Utah–western Colorado region.

Did Plinian eruptions in California lead to debris flows in Nevada? An intriguing stratigraphic connection

A common association of thin, late Holocene Mono and Inyo crater tephra beds buried by debris flows within a 250-km-long corridor of western Nevada suggests that there has been at times a genetic link between these two otherwise independent processes. The unambiguous depositional relations and the undisturbed character of the tephra beds at more than 20 sites indicate that tephra deposition was often followed by burial under debris flows produced by intense precipitation. Considering that average return periods are hundreds of years for such storms, it is highly improbable that this stratigraphic association is random coincidence. We propose that the most plausible explanation for this association is that some Plinian ash columns produced intense thunderstorms, resulting in large debris flows that buried the tephra beds.

Paleogeomorphology and evolution of the early Colorado River inferred from relationships in Mohave and Cottonwood valleys, Arizona, California, and Nevada

Geologic investigations of late Miocene–early Pliocene deposits in Mohave and Cottonwood valleys provide important insights into the early evolution of the lower Colorado River system. In the latest Miocene these valleys were separate depocenters; the floor of Cottonwood Valley was ∼200 m higher than the floor of Mohave Valley. When Colorado River water arrived from the north after 5.6 Ma, a shallow lake in Cottonwood Valley spilled into Mohave Valley, and the river then filled both valleys to ∼560 m above sea level (asl) and overtopped the bedrock divide at the southern end of Mohave Valley. Sediment-starved water spilling to the south gradually eroded the outlet as siliciclastic Bouse deposits filled the lake upstream. When sediment accumulation reached the elevation of the lowering outlet, continued erosion of the outlet resulted in recycling of stored lacustrine sediment into downstream basins; depth of erosion of the outlet and upstream basins was limited by the water levels in downstream basins. The water level in the southern Bouse basin was ∼300 m asl (modern elevation) at 4.8 Ma. It must have drained and been eroded to a level