P. R. Shukla

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy-environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno-economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio-environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.

Low-carbon society scenarios for India

Low-carbon society scenarios visualize social, economic and technological transitions through which societies respond to climate change. This article assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low-carbon future in India. An integrated modelling framework is used for delineating and assessing the alternative development pathways having equal cumulative CO2 emissions during the first half of the 21st century. The first pathway assumes a conventional development pattern together with a carbon price that aligns Indias emissions to an optimal 550 ppmv CO2e stabilization global response. The second emissions pathway assumes an underlying sustainable development pattern characterized by diverse response measures typical of the ‘sustainability’ paradigm. A comparative analysis of the alternative development strategies is presented on multiple indicators such as energy security, air quality, technology stocks and adaptive capacity, and conclusions are drawn.

Large point source (LPS) emissions from India: regional and sectoral analysis

Abstract Indian large point sources (LPS) contribute to CO 2 and SO 2 emissions to a large extent (above 65%) and to CH 4 , N 2 O and NO X emissions to some extent (around 10%). The former emissions are primarily from fossil fuel combustion while the latter have agriculture sector dominance, explaining the drastic difference in LPS contributions to all India emissions. The present paper covers 509 LPS for India. These are well distributed across the country. However, there are some regions of very few LPS (like the western desert and the hilly areas of north, northeast and coastal west) and some regions of high LPS concentration (Mumbai–Ahmedabad corridor, Delhi and near coal mine mouths). There is a dominance of power plants in Indian LPS emissions for CO 2 and SO 2 (47% each), with cement (9% and 5%) and steel (6% and 7%) plants being the other major contributors. Moreover, due to growing population, increasing urbanization and higher consumption levels, these LPS emissions are growing much faster than the national average. The present analysis would be useful for policy-making to mitigate these pollutants and their associated impacts.

Carbon taxes and India

Using the Indian module of the Second Generation Model (SGM), we explore a reference case and three scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions were controlled. Two alternative policy instruments (carbon taxes and tradable permits) were analyzed to determine comparative costs of stabilizing emissions at (1) 1990 levels (the 1X case), (2) two times the 1990 levels (the 2X case), and (3) three times the 1990 levels (the 3X case). The analysis takes into account Indias rapidly growing population and the abundance of coal and biomass relative to other fuels. We also explore the impacts of a global tradable permits market to stabilize global carbon emissions on the Indian economy under the following two emissions allowance allocation methods. 1. 1. Grandfathered emissions: emissions allowances are allocated based on 1990 emissions. 2. 2. Equal per capita emissions: emissions allowances are allocated based on share of global population. Tradable permits represent a lower-cost method to stabilize Indian emissions than carbon taxes, i.e. global action would benefit India more than independent actions.

Greenhouse gas models and abatement costs for developing nations: A critical assessment

Numerous GHG policy studies are reported for developing countries. Most use demand driven bottom-up models. Reported abatement costs vary significantly across countries for identical options. This can cause policy conflicts such as for GEF financing schemes. Top-down macroeconomic studies for developing countries are scant; their model structure assumes dynamics akin to developed market economies. Transitional dynamics of developing countries such as underdeveloped markets and informal activities are inadequately modelled. Policy analysis is thus restricted to market oriented alternatives, while more relevant bifurcation scenarios along alternate development patterns are ignored. Alterations in model structure and policy analysis are proposed to represent the realities of developing nations.

Sustainable development and climate change: lessons from country studies

Sustainable development has been suggested as a framework for integrating development and climate change policies in developing countries. Mainstreaming climate change into sustainable development policies would allow these countries to achieve their development goals while addressing climate change. A number of research programmes have investigated how potential synergies could be achieved at national level and what kind of trade-offs between the various aspects of sustainable development have to be faced. An overview of these studies is provided, focusing on national case studies. The energy and transportation sectors are covered in many studies, but some attention is also given to the infrastructure sector and water supply. Most existing development policies will not lead to a sustainable development pattern, since they insufficiently address climate change. However, good opportunities exist for integrated policies to achieve development goals while engaging with climate change. The energy and transportation sector studies identified many alternative national low-cost policies with much lower GHG emissions than the business-as-usual policy. Opportunities are identified for alternative national development policies for infrastructure and water supply that provide resilience against climate variability and climate change.

Modelling of Uncertainties and Price Elastic Demands in Energy-Environment Planning for India

This paper describes two variants of the Indian MARKAL model: a long-term technology oriented optimisation model for energy-environment planning for India. The first variant uses stochastic programming to include future uncertainties in the analysis. Details of model formulation, results and sensitivity analysis are described here. The second variant uses an innovative approach to simulate price sensitive demands within a linear formulation. The analysis incorporating future uncertainties suggests that it is prudent to reduce carbon emission in anticipation of a global regime in future. Modelling with price elastic demands estimates up to 10% reduction in carbon emission due to reduced demands, under a severe carbon tax.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.

Renewable energy and low carbon economy transition in India

Cooperation of large developing countries such as India would be important in achieving a low carbon future, which can help in restricting the global temperature rise to 2 °C. Global modeling studies of such low carbon scenarios point to a prominent role for renewable energy. This paper reports scenarios for a low carbon future in India. An integrated modeling framework is used for assessing the alternate development pathways having equal cumulative CO2 emissions. The modeling period ranges from 2005 to 2050. The first pathway assumes a conventional development pattern together with a carbon price that aligns India’s emissions to an optimal 450 ppmv CO2-eq. stabilization global response. The second emissions pathway assumes an underlying sustainable development pattern. A low carbon future will be good for renewable energy under both the development pathways, though the share of renewable energy will be higher under a sustainable pathway. Renewable energy faces competition from low carbon technologies lik...

Role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation policy for India: assessment of co-benefits and opportunities within an integrated assessment modeling framework

Addressing the challenges of global warming requires interventions on both the energy supply and demand side. With the supply side responses being thoroughly discussed in the literature, our paper focuses on analyzing the role of end use efficiency improvements for Indian climate change mitigation policy and the associated co-benefits, within the integrated assessment modeling framework of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Six scenarios are analyzed here in total- one no climate policy and two climate policy cases, and within each of these one scenario with reference end use energy technology assumptions and another with advance end use energy technology assumptions has been analyzed. The paper has some important insights. Final energy demand and emissions in India are significantly reduced with energy efficiency improvements, and the role of this policy is important especially for the building and transportation sector under both reference and climate policy scenarios. Though energy efficiency policy should be an integral part of climate policy, by itself it is not sufficient for achieving mitigation targets, and a climate policy is necessary for achieving mitigation goals. There are significant co-benefits of energy efficiency improvements. Energy security for India is improved with reduced oil, coal and gas imports. Significant reduction in local pollutant gases is found which is important for local health concerns. Capital investment requirement for Indian electricity generation is reduced, more so for the climate policy scenarios, and finally there are significant savings in terms of reduced abatement cost for meeting climate change mitigation goals.