P.W. Goedhart

Genetic similarity as a measure for connectivity between fragmented populations of the moor frog (Rana arvalis).

Genetic differentiation among populations of the moor frog (Rana arvalis) was tested on a spatial scale where some dispersal between populations is expected to occur, in a landscape in The Netherlands that has become fragmented fairly recently, in the 1930s. Five microsatellite loci were used, with 2–8 alleles per locus. FIS was 0.049 across loci, and most populations were in HW equilibrium. The degree of population subdivision was low (FST=0.052). A significant positive correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance was found, indicating a limitation in dispersal among populations due to distance. To test the impact of the landscape mosaic on the connectivity between patches, distance measures were corrected for relative amounts of habitat types with known positive or negative influence on moor frog dispersal. Notably, the resistance variable for the fraction of negative linear elements (roads and railways) gave a higher explanatory value than geographical distance itself. Therefore, it is particularly the number of barriers (roads and railways) between populations that emerges as a factor that reduces exchange between populations. It is concluded that genetic techniques show promise in determining the influence of landscape connectivity on animal dispersal.

Impacts of Nutrient Reduction on Coastal Communities

Eutrophication due to high anthropogenic nutrient loading has greatly impacted ecological processes in marine coastal waters and, therefore, much effort has been put into reducing nitrogen and phosphorus discharges into European and North-American waters. Nutrient enrichment usually resulted in increase of biomass and production of phytoplankton and microphytobenthos, often coinciding with shifts in species composition within the primary producer community. Consequences of increasing eutrophication for higher trophic levels are still being disputed, and even less is known about the consequences of nutrient reduction on coastal food webs. Here, we present 30-year concurrent field observations on phytoplankton, macrozoobenthos and estuarine birds in the Dutch Wadden Sea, which has been subject to decades of nutrient enrichment and subsequent nutrient reduction. We demonstrate that long-term variations in limiting nutrients (phosphate and silicon) were weakly correlated with biomass and more strongly with community structures of phytoplankton, macrozoobenthos and estuarine birds. Although we cannot conclusively determine if, and if so to what extent, nutrient enrichment and subsequent nutrient reduction actually contributed to the concurrent trends in these communities, it appears likely that part of the variance in the studied coastal communities is related to changes in nutrient loads. Our results imply that nutrient reduction measures should not ignore the potential consequences for policies aimed at bird conservation and exploitation of marine living resources.

Olivine Weathering in Soil, and Its Effects on Growth and Nutrient Uptake in Ryegrass (lolium perenne L.): A Pot Experiment

Mineral carbonation of basic silicate minerals regulates atmospheric CO2 on geological time scales by locking up carbon. Mining and spreading onto the earths surface of fast-weathering silicates, such as olivine, has been proposed to speed up this natural CO2 sequestration (‘enhanced weathering’). While agriculture may offer an existing infrastructure, weathering rate and impacts on soil and plant are largely unknown. Our objectives were to assess weathering of olivine in soil, and its effects on plant growth and nutrient uptake. In a pot experiment with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.), weathering during 32 weeks was inferred from bioavailability of magnesium (Mg) in soil and plant. Olivine doses were equivalent to 1630 (OLIV1), 8150, 40700 and 204000 (OLIV4) kg ha−1. Alternatively, the soluble Mg salt kieserite was applied for reference. Olivine increased plant growth (+15.6%) and plant K concentration (+16.5%) in OLIV4. At all doses, olivine increased bioavailability of Mg and Ni in soil, as well as uptake of Mg, Si and Ni in plants. Olivine suppressed Ca uptake. Weathering estimated from a Mg balance was equivalent to 240 kg ha−1 (14.8% of dose, OLIV1) to 2240 kg ha−1 (1.1%, OLIV4). This corresponds to gross CO2 sequestration of 290 to 2690 kg ha−1 (29 103 to 269 103 kg km−2.) Alternatively, weathering estimated from similarity with kieserite treatments ranged from 13% to 58% for OLIV1. The Olsen model for olivine carbonation predicted 4.0% to 9.0% weathering for our case, independent of olivine dose. Our % values observed at high doses were smaller than this, suggesting negative feedbacks in soil. Yet, weathering appears fast enough to support the ‘enhanced weathering’ concept. In agriculture, olivine doses must remain within limits to avoid imbalances in plant nutrition, notably at low Ca availability; and to avoid Ni accumulation in soil and crop.

The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure.

Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe.

Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031–2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975–1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.

Modeling Deoxynivalenol Contamination of Wheat in Northwestern Europe for Climate Change Assessments

Climate change will affect mycotoxin contamination of feed and food. Mathematical models for predicting mycotoxin concentrations in cereal grains are useful for estimating the impact of climate change on these toxins. The objective of the current study was to construct a descriptive model to estimate climate change impacts on deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of mature wheat grown in northwestern Europe. Observational data from 717 wheat fields in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and The Netherlands were analyzed, including the DON concentrations in mature wheat, agronomical practices, and local weather. Multiple regression analyses were conducted, and the best set of explanatory variables, mainly including weather factors, was selected. The final model included the following variables: flowering date, length of time between flowering and harvest, wheat resistance to Fusarium infection, and several climatic variables related to relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall during critical stages of wheat cultivation. The model accounted for 50 % of the variance, which was sufficient to make this model useful for estimating the trends of climate change on DON contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe. Application of the model in possible climate change scenarios is illustrated.

Occurrence of Fusarium Head Blight species and Fusarium mycotoxins in winter wheat in the Netherlands in 2009

Most recent information on the occurrence of Fusarium Head Blight species and related mycotoxins in wheat grown in the Netherlands dates from 2001. This aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and levels of Fusarium Head Blight species and Fusarium mycotoxins, as well as their possible relationships, in winter wheat cultivated in the Netherlands in 2009. Samples were collected from individual fields of 88 commercial wheat growers. Samples were collected at harvest from 86 fields, and 2 weeks before the expected harvest date from 21 fields. In all, 128 samples, the levels of each of seven Fusarium Head Blight species and of 12 related mycotoxins were quantified. The results showed that F. graminearum was the most frequently observed species at harvest, followed by F. avenaceum and M. nivale. In the pre-harvest samples, only F. graminearum and M. nivale were relevant. The highest incidence and concentrations of mycotoxins were found for deoxynivalenol, followed by zearalenone and beauvericin, both pre-harvest and at harvest. Other toxins frequently found – for the first time in the Netherlands – included T-2 toxin, HT-2 toxin, and moniliformin. The levels of deoxynivalenol were positively related to F. graminearum levels, as well as to zearalenone levels. Other relationships could not be established. The current approach taken in collecting wheat samples and quantifying the presence of Fusarium Head Blight species and related mycotoxins is an efficient method to obtain insight into the occurrence of these species and toxins in wheat grown under natural environmental conditions. It is recommended that this survey be repeated for several years to establish inter-annual variability in both species composition and mycotoxin occurrence.

Transfer of Cs-137 from grass and wilted grass silage to milk of dairy cows.

Deposition of radiocaesium from the Chernobyl reactor accident on the Netherlands made it possible to collect contaminated fresh grass and first cut wilted grass silage. These contaminated roughages were used in transfer experiments with lactating dairy cows to determine transfer coefficients and half-lives for Cs-137 in milk. The experimental design was based on three consecutive periods: a preliminary period to determine the background concentration of the isotope in milk, a contamination period to determine the magnitude of accumulation and finally a depletion period to measure the rate at which the activity concentration of Cs-137 in milk declined after continuous feeding. The average transfer coefficient (Fmilk) for cows fed on contaminated dried grass under steady-state conditions was 0.002 d/kg and for cows fed on slightly contaminated second cut fresh grass 0.006 d/kg. The highest transfer coefficients were obtained for cows fed on contaminated grass silage for 119 days, which also included the dry period of about two months. For the first five days after calving the Fmilk values varied from 0.0066 to 0.0091 d/kg. There were no significant differences in transfer coefficients between cows in early lactation (third month of lactation), cows in late lactation (the last month of the lactation period) and cows fed on both contaminated grass silage and uncontaminated maize silage simultaneously. Half-life values for the rate of decline of the isotope in milk during the depletion period were estimated on the basis of a mathematical model with two exponential components. These components were characterized by half-lives of 0.5 to 3.5 days and 10 to 46 days.

Monitoring phytoplankton and marine biotoxins in production waters of the Netherlands: results after one decade

Shellfish products may be contaminated with marine biotoxins which, after consumption, may lead to human illness. The Netherlands has a regular monitoring programme for marine biotoxins and the possible toxic phytoplankton in shellfish production waters. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the presence of potential toxic phytoplankton species and marine biotoxins in Dutch production waters over the last decade, and to analyse the relationship between toxin levels and abundance of possible causative phytoplankton species. The results of the monitoring programme of the period 1999–2009 were used. The presence of Alexandrium spp. were negligible, but Pseudo-nitzschia spp. and phytoplankton causing diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP toxin-producing phytoplankton) were present in nearly all three main production areas and years. The main DSP toxin-producing species was Dinophysis acuminata followed by D. rotundata and Prorocentrum lima. Toxins causing paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) and amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP) were present in only a few individual shellfish samples, all at low levels. At the end of 2002, an episode of DSP toxicity was recorded, based on the rat bioassay results. Of the samples that were chemically analysed for DSP toxins in 2007 and 2008, about half of the samples in 2007 contained these toxins, although levels were low and no positive results were obtained using the rat bioassay. There was a slight positive correlation between concentrations of DSP toxin-producing phytoplankton and levels of DSP toxins in 2007. Increased DSP toxin levels were found up to 5 weeks after the peak in DSP toxin-producing phytoplankton. This positive, but weak, relationship needs to be confirmed in future research using more samples and chemical methods to quantify the presence of DSP toxins. If this relationship is further substantiated and quantified, it could be used within the current monitoring programme in the Netherlands to predict the risk areas regarding DSP toxicity in shellfish.

Why Some Plant Species Are Rare

Biodiversity, including plant species diversity, is threatened worldwide as a result of anthropogenic pressures such as an increase of pollutants and climate change. Rare species in particular are on the verge of becoming extinct. It is still unclear as to why some plant species are rare and others are not. Are they rare due to: intrinsic reasons, dispersal capacity, the effects of management or abiotic circumstances? Habitat preference of rare plant species may play an important role in determining why some species are rare. Based on an extensive data set of soil parameters we investigated if rarity is due to a narrow habitat preference for abiotic soil parameters. For 23 different abiotic soil parameters, of which the most influential were groundwater-table, soil-pH and nutrient-contents, we estimated species responses for common and rare species. Based on the responses per species we calculated the range of occurrence, the range between the 5 and 95 percentile of the response curve giving the habitat preference. Subsequently, we calculated the average response range for common and rare species. In addition, we designed a new graphic in order to provide a better means for presentation of the results. The habitat preferences of rare species for abiotic soil conditions are significantly narrower than for common species. Twenty of the twenty-three abiotic parameters showed on average significantly narrower habitat preferences for rare species than for common species; none of the abiotic parameters showed on average a narrower habitat preference for common species. The results have major implications for the conservation of rare plant species; accordingly management and nature development should be focussed on the maintenance and creation of a broad range of environmental conditions, so that the requirements of rare species are met. The conservation of (abiotic) gradients within ecosystems is particularly important for preserving rare species.