Pablo Hernández de Cos

Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth

Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross-country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (1564) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita. Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (3554) relative to the younger working age population (1534) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime-to-younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered.

On the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Budget Performance

In this paper, we address the issue of whether the current fiscal policy in Spain is sustainable. For this purpose we apply traditional empirical tests of fiscal sustainability proposed in the literature and, in addition, we introduce a deeper univariate analysis of the series involved. Our results show that a structural break seems to have taken place gradually in the Spanish budget performance, allowing to verifying the intertemporal borrowing constraint in a «strong sense», which means that no problems in marketing public debt are expected to arise if fiscal variables follow the pattern of the past in the future. Classification-JEL : E60, F41,

Determinants of health-system efficiency: evidence from OECD countries

This paper analyzes the most important determinants of healthcare efficiency across OECD countries. As previously documented in the literature, we first provide evidence of significant differences in the cross-country level of efficiency in healthcare provision. We then investigate how improvements in efficiency can be achieved by considering alternative efficiency indices (parametric and non-parametric) and a novel dataset with information on the characteristics of healthcare systems across OECD countries. Our empirical findings suggest a positive correlation between policies such as increasing the regulation of prices billed by providers and reducing the degree of gate keeping and the efficiency of national healthcare systems.

Endogenous fiscal consolidations

There is evidence in the literature of fiscal consolidation episodes producing (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects (e.g. Alesina and Ardagna, 1998). We replicate this result for a panel of OECD countries under exogeneity of the fiscal tightening decision, and provide evidence that this decision is endogenous to GDP so that the exogeneity assumption might be inappropriate. Once this endogeneity is taken into consideration, we find that fiscal consolidations have a negative impact on GDP as expected in a Keynesian framework. We also investigate the determinants of successful consolidations. In particular, we use model averaging to overcome the problem of model uncertainty, and conclude that economic recovery and cuts in public wages are the most important ingredients of a consolidation program for successfully reducing budget deficits.

Fiscal Rules and Federalism as Determinants of Budget Performance

This article analyses the role of different potential determinants on the fiscal results of the Spanish regions (RGs). The empirical analysis suggests several conclusions. First, the fiscal rule in force between 1992 and 1998 does not appear to have had a significant effect on the fiscal balances of the autonomous regions. With regard to the degree of fiscal autonomy, a higher level in this variable is associated with a more disciplined behavior by RGs. The results also show that the greater transfer of tax revenues to the RGs, associated with a greater devolution of power, has generated greater dependency of fiscal performance on the economic cycle. There is also a strong inertial component in the implementation of fiscal policy in RGs.

Public Ownership and Business Performance in the Spanish Manufacturing Sector, 1983-1996

This article presents empirical evidence for the Spanish case on the hypothesis that public ownership may be a determinant of a firm’s performance. Two alternative definitions of efficiency are proposed: relative productivity and profitability. The former tries to approximate the concept of technical or productive efficiency, whereas the latter is associated with allocative or price efficiency. The role of ownership is tested, conditioning for the degree of competition, the financial position of the firm, and labor quality. The data used are a sample of Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1983-1996. The results show a negative and significant coefficient of the public ownership variable, which would denote that public ownership has a negative effect on efficiency. In addition, the degree of competition seems to have a positive and significant effect on firm’s performance. As for the variables that proxy the degree of financial constraint, the coefficient of the cash flow per unit of capital has a positive and significant sign.

Fiscal Policy, Structural Reforms and External Imbalances: A Quantitative Evaluation for Spain

This paper builds a large overlapping generations model of a small open economy featuring imperfect competition in the labor and product markets to understand i) which were the main determinants of the large expansionary phase experienced in Spain from the mid-1990s until the arrival of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008, ii) what role fiscal policy and structural reforms could have played to avoid the build-up of large external imbalance over this period, and iii) how these policies could affect the recovery of economic activity in Spain after the crisis. Our results indicate that falling interest rates and demographic changes were the main drivers of the Spanish expansionary phase. As for the macroeconomic behavior of the Spanish economy after the crisis, our results suggest that a front-loading in fiscal consolidation together with structural reforms that eliminate distortions in the goods and labor markets could make the recovery of economic activity in Spain more successful.

What drives a successful fiscal consolidation

Fiscal consolidations are currently in the agenda of fiscal authorities in many countries. Using Bayesian Model Averaging to overcome the problem of model uncertainty, we find that growth-enhancing policies and cuts in public wages are the most appropriate ingredients for successfully reducing debt levels and budget deficits.

Health Care Expenditure in the OECD Countries: Efficiency and Regulation

The containment of health care expenditure is one of the major challenges facing public policymakers in the developed countries. This paper provides evidence of significant differences in the cross-country level of efficiency of health care expenditure, meaning that potential cost savings for the countries considered least efficient might be very high. Further, a significant relationship is found between the various health care policies and institutions in the OECD countries and the efficiency levels of health care systems. The findings are, however, highly sensitive to the efficiency-estimation methodology used.

Fiscal Policy and External Imbalances in a Debt Crisis: The Spanish Case

In this paper we reflect on the role that fiscal policy could play in the resolution of the crisis in Eurozone countries crippled by both public and private debt, and beset by growth and competitiveness problems. As an illustration, we revisit the Spanish case, a paradigmatic example of the economic difficulties created by high debt and internal and external imbalances. After describing the build-up of fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances in Spain during the period 1995-2007, we first discuss how the correction of macroeconomic imbalances conditions progress on the fiscal consolidation front and, secondly, how fiscal consolidation affects the correction of imbalances. We conclude that the role that national fiscal policies can play in these countries to expand demand and reduce the costs of solving external and internal imbalances seems limited. Also, overall, the best contribution that fiscal policy can achieve under these constraints is through a better targeting of government expenditures and tax reforms, aimed at introducing permanent measures to stabilise debt ratios. These could then be combined with productivity-enhancing structural reforms and with improvements in product market regulation to increase competition, so that the short-term costs of the internal devaluation required are reduced