Pablo Perel

Effects of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events, and blood transfusion in trauma patients with significant haemorrhage (CRASH-2): a randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Tranexamic acid can reduce bleeding in patients undergoing elective surgery. We assessed the effects of early administration of a short course of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events, and the receipt of blood transfusion in trauma patients. METHODS This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 274 hospitals in 40 countries. 20 211 adult trauma patients with, or at risk of significant bleeding were randomly assigned within 8 h of injury to either tranexamic acid (loading dose 1 g over 10 min then infusion of 1 g over 8 h) or matching placebo. Randomisation was balanced by centre, with an allocation sequence based on a block size of eight, generated with a computer random number generator Both participants and study staff (site investigators and trial coordinating centre staff) were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was death in hospital within 4 weeks of injury, and was described with the following categories: bleeding, vascular occlusion (myocardial infarction, stroke and pulmonary embolism), multiorgan failure, head injury, and other AL analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered as ISRCTN86750102, Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00375258, and South African Clinical Trial Register DOH-27-0607-1919. RESULTS 10096 patients were allocated to tranexamic acid and 10 115 to placebo, of whom 10060 and 10067, respectively, were analysed. All-cause mortality was significantly reduced with tranexamic acid (1463 [14.5%] tranexamic acid group vs 1613 [160%] placebo group; relative risk 0.91, 95% CI 085-097; p = 00035). The risk of death due to bleeding was significantly reduced (489 [49%] vs 574 [5-7%]; relative risk 0-85, 95% CI 0.76-0.96; p = 0-0077). CONCLUSION Tranexamic acid safely reduced the risk of death in bleeding trauma patients in this study On the basis of these results, tranexamic acid should be considered for use in bleeding trauma patients.BACKGROUND Tranexamic acid can reduce bleeding in patients undergoing elective surgery. We assessed the effects of early administration of a short course of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events, and the receipt of blood transfusion in trauma patients. METHODS This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 274 hospitals in 40 countries. 20 211 adult trauma patients with, or at risk of, significant bleeding were randomly assigned within 8 h of injury to either tranexamic acid (loading dose 1 g over 10 min then infusion of 1 g over 8 h) or matching placebo. Randomisation was balanced by centre, with an allocation sequence based on a block size of eight, generated with a computer random number generator. Both participants and study staff (site investigators and trial coordinating centre staff) were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was death in hospital within 4 weeks of injury, and was described with the following categories: bleeding, vascular occlusion (myocardial infarction, stroke and pulmonary embolism), multiorgan failure, head injury, and other. All analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered as ISRCTN86750102, Clinicaltrials.govNCT00375258, and South African Clinical Trial RegisterDOH-27-0607-1919. FINDINGS 10 096 patients were allocated to tranexamic acid and 10 115 to placebo, of whom 10 060 and 10 067, respectively, were analysed. All-cause mortality was significantly reduced with tranexamic acid (1463 [14.5%] tranexamic acid group vs 1613 [16.0%] placebo group; relative risk 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97; p=0.0035). The risk of death due to bleeding was significantly reduced (489 [4.9%] vs 574 [5.7%]; relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.96; p=0.0077). INTERPRETATION Tranexamic acid safely reduced the risk of death in bleeding trauma patients in this study. On the basis of these results, tranexamic acid should be considered for use in bleeding trauma patients. FUNDING UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme, Pfizer, BUPA Foundation, and J P Moulton Charitable Foundation.

Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients.

Objective To develop and validate practical prognostic models for death at 14 days and for death or severe disability six months after traumatic brain injury. Design Multivariable logistic regression to select variables that were independently associated with two patient outcomes. Two models designed: “basic” model (demographic and clinical variables only) and “CT” model (basic model plus results of computed tomography). The models were subsequently developed for high and low-middle income countries separately. Setting Medical Research Council (MRC) CRASH Trial. Subjects 10 008 patients with traumatic brain injury. Models externally validated in a cohort of 8509. Results The basic model included four predictors: age, Glasgow coma scale, pupil reactivity, and the presence of major extracranial injury. The CT model also included the presence of petechial haemorrhages, obliteration of the third ventricle or basal cisterns, subarachnoid bleeding, midline shift, and non-evacuated haematoma. In the derivation sample the models showed excellent discrimination (C statistic above 0.80). The models showed good calibration graphically. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good calibration, except for the CT model in low-middle income countries. External validation for unfavourable outcome at six months in high income countries showed that basic and CT models had good discrimination (C statistic 0.77 for both models) but poorer calibration. Conclusion Simple prognostic models can be used to obtain valid predictions of relevant outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury.

The importance of early treatment with tranexamic acid in bleeding trauma patients: an exploratory analysis of the CRASH-2 randomised controlled trial.

Background The aim of the CRASH-2 trial was to assess the eff ects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events, and blood transfusion in trauma patients with signifi cant haemorrhage. Tranexamic acid signifi cantly reduced all-cause mortality. Because tranexamic acid is thought to exert its eff ect through inhibition of fi brinolysis, we undertook exploratory analyses of its eff ect on death due to bleeding.BACKGROUND The aim of the CRASH-2 trial was to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events, and blood transfusion in trauma patients with significant haemorrhage. Tranexamic acid significantly reduced all-cause mortality. Because tranexamic acid is thought to exert its effect through inhibition of fibrinolysis, we undertook exploratory analyses of its effect on death due to bleeding. METHODS The CRASH-2 trial was undertaken in 274 hospitals in 40 countries. 20,211 adult trauma patients with, or at risk of, significant bleeding were randomly assigned within 8 h of injury to either tranexamic acid (loading dose 1 g over 10 min followed by infusion of 1 g over 8 h) or placebo. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of the lowest numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Both participants and study staff (site investigators and trial coordinating centre staff ) were masked to treatment allocation. We examined the effect of tranexamic acid on death due to bleeding according to time to treatment, severity of haemorrhage as assessed by systolic blood pressure, Glasgow coma score (GCS), and type of injury. All analyses were by intention to treat. The trial is registered as ISRCTN86750102, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00375258, and South African Clinical Trial Register/Department of Health DOH-27-0607-1919. FINDINGS 10,096 patients were allocated to tranexamic acid and 10,115 to placebo, of whom 10,060 and 10,067, respectively, were analysed. 1063 deaths (35%) were due to bleeding. We recorded strong evidence that the effect of tranexamic acid on death due to bleeding varied according to the time from injury to treatment (test for interaction p<0.0001). Early treatment (≤1 h from injury) significantly reduced the risk of death due to bleeding (198/3747 [5.3%] events in tranexamic acid group vs 286/3704 [7.7%] in placebo group; relative risk [RR] 0.68, 95% CI 0.57-0.82; p<0.0001). Treatment given between 1 and 3 h also reduced the risk of death due to bleeding (147/3037 [4.8%] vs 184/2996 [6.1%]; RR 0.79, 0.64-0.97; p=0.03). Treatment given after 3 h seemed to increase the risk of death due to bleeding (144/3272 [4.4%] vs 103/3362 [3.1%]; RR 1.44, 1.12-1.84; p=0.004). We recorded no evidence that the effect of tranexamic acid on death due to bleeding varied by systolic blood pressure, Glasgow coma score, or type of injury. INTERPRETATION Tranexamic acid should be given as early as possible to bleeding trauma patients. For trauma patients admitted late after injury, tranexamic acid is less effective and could be harmful. FUNDING UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme, Pfizer, BUPA Foundation, and J P Moulton Charitable Foundation.

Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development and international validation of prognostic scores based on admission characteristics

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability. A reliable prediction of outcome on admission is of great clinical relevance. We aimed to develop prognostic models with readily available traditional and novel predictors. Methods and Findings Prospectively collected individual patient data were analyzed from 11 studies. We considered predictors available at admission in logistic regression models to predict mortality and unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at 6 mo after injury. Prognostic models were developed in 8,509 patients with severe or moderate TBI, with cross-validation by omission of each of the 11 studies in turn. External validation was on 6,681 patients from the recent Medical Research Council Corticosteroid Randomisation after Significant Head Injury (MRC CRASH) trial. We found that the strongest predictors of outcome were age, motor score, pupillary reactivity, and CT characteristics, including the presence of traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. A prognostic model that combined age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.84 at cross-validation. This performance could be improved (AUC increased by approximately 0.05) by considering CT characteristics, secondary insults (hypotension and hypoxia), and laboratory parameters (glucose and hemoglobin). External validation confirmed that the discriminative ability of the model was adequate (AUC 0.80). Outcomes were systematically worse than predicted, but less so in 1,588 patients who were from high-income countries in the CRASH trial. Conclusions Prognostic models using baseline characteristics provide adequate discrimination between patients with good and poor 6 mo outcomes after TBI, especially if CT and laboratory findings are considered in addition to traditional predictors. The model predictions may support clinical practice and research, including the design and analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Comparison of treatment effects between animal experiments and clinical trials: systematic review

Objective To examine concordance between treatment effects in animal experiments and clinical trials. Study design Systematic review. Data sources Medline, Embase, SIGLE, NTIS, Science Citation Index, CAB, BIOSIS. Study selection Animal studies for interventions with unambiguous evidence of a treatment effect (benefit or harm) in clinical trials: head injury, antifibrinolytics in haemorrhage, thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke, tirilazad in acute ischaemic stroke, antenatal corticosteroids to prevent neonatal respiratory distress syndrome, and bisphosphonates to treat osteoporosis. Review methods Data were extracted on study design, allocation concealment, number of randomised animals, type of model, intervention, and outcome. Results Corticosteroids did not show any benefit in clinical trials of treatment for head injury but did show a benefit in animal models (pooled odds ratio for adverse functional outcome 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.83). Antifibrinolytics reduced bleeding in clinical trials but the data were inconclusive in animal models. Thrombolysis improved outcome in patients with ischaemic stroke. In animal models, tissue plasminogen activator reduced infarct volume by 24% (95% confidence interval 20% to 28%) and improved neurobehavioural scores by 23% (17% to 29%). Tirilazad was associated with a worse outcome in patients with ischaemic stroke. In animal models, tirilazad reduced infarct volume by 29% (21% to 37%) and improved neurobehavioural scores by 48% (29% to 67%). Antenatal corticosteroids reduced respiratory distress and mortality in neonates whereas in animal models respiratory distress was reduced but the effect on mortality was inconclusive (odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 20.9). Bisphosphonates increased bone mineral density in patients with osteoporosis. In animal models the bisphosphonate alendronate increased bone mineral density compared with placebo by 11.0% (95% confidence interval 9.2% to 12.9%) in the combined results for the hip region. The corresponding treatment effect in the lumbar spine was 8.5% (5.8% to 11.2%) and in the combined results for the forearms (baboons only) was 1.7% (−1.4% to 4.7%). Conclusions Discordance between animal and human studies may be due to bias or to the failure of animal models to mimic clinical disease adequately.

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: Prognostic Model Research

In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series on prognostic factor research, Sara Schroter and colleagues review how prognostic models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

Effect of tranexamic acid on surgical bleeding: systematic review and cumulative meta-analysis

Objective To assess the effect of tranexamic acid on blood transfusion, thromboembolic events, and mortality in surgical patients. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Cochrane central register of controlled trials, Medline, and Embase, from inception to September 2011, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the reference lists of relevant articles. Study selection Randomised controlled trials comparing tranexamic acid with no tranexamic acid or placebo in surgical patients. Outcome measures of interest were the number of patients receiving a blood transfusion; the number of patients with a thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism); and the number of deaths. Trials were included irrespective of language or publication status. Results 129 trials, totalling 10 488 patients, carried out between 1972 and 2011 were included. Tranexamic acid reduced the probability of receiving a blood transfusion by a third (risk ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.65; P<0.001). This effect remained when the analysis was restricted to trials using adequate allocation concealment (0.68, 0.62 to 0.74; P<0.001). The effect of tranexamic acid on myocardial infarction (0.68, 0.43 to 1.09; P=0.11), stroke (1.14, 0.65 to 2.00; P=0.65), deep vein thrombosis (0.86, 0.53 to 1.39; P=0.54), and pulmonary embolism (0.61, 0.25 to 1.47; P=0.27) was uncertain. Fewer deaths occurred in the tranexamic acid group (0.61, 0.38 to 0.98; P=0.04), although when the analysis was restricted to trials using adequate concealment there was considerable uncertainty (0.67, 0.33 to 1.34; P=0.25). Cumulative meta-analysis showed that reliable evidence that tranexamic acid reduces the need for transfusion has been available for over 10 years. Conclusions Strong evidence that tranexamic acid reduces blood transfusion in surgery has been available for many years. Further trials on the effect of tranexamic acid on blood transfusion are unlikely to add useful new information. However, the effect of tranexamic acid on thromboembolic events and mortality remains uncertain. Surgical patients should be made aware of this evidence so that they can make an informed choice.

Systematic review of prognostic models in traumatic brain injury

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability world-wide. The ability to accurately predict patient outcome after TBI has an important role in clinical practice and research. Prognostic models are statistical models that combine two or more items of patient data to predict clinical outcome. They may improve predictions in TBI patients. Multiple prognostic models for TBI have accumulated for decades but none of them is widely used in clinical practice. The objective of this systematic review is to critically assess existing prognostic models for TBIMethodsStudies that combine at least two variables to predict any outcome in patients with TBI were searched in PUBMED and EMBASE. Two reviewers independently examined titles, abstracts and assessed whether each met the pre-defined inclusion criteria.ResultsA total of 53 reports including 102 models were identified. Almost half (47%) were derived from adult patients. Three quarters of the models included less than 500 patients. Most of the models (93%) were from high income countries populations. Logistic regression was the most common analytical strategy to derived models (47%). In relation to the quality of the derivation models (n:66), only 15% reported less than 10% pf loss to follow-up, 68% did not justify the rationale to include the predictors, 11% conducted an external validation and only 19% of the logistic models presented the results in a clinically user-friendly wayConclusionPrognostic models are frequently published but they are developed from small samples of patients, their methodological quality is poor and they are rarely validated on external populations. Furthermore, they are not clinically practical as they are not presented to physicians in a user-friendly way. Finally because only a few are developed using populations from low and middle income countries, where most of trauma occurs, the generalizability to these setting is limited.

Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 1: a framework for researching clinical outcomes.

Understanding and improving the prognosis of a disease or health condition is a priority in clinical research and practice. In this article, the authors introduce a framework of four interrelated themes in prognosis research, describe the importance of the first of these themes (understanding future outcomes in relation to current diagnostic and treatment practices), and introduce recommendations for the field of prognosis research

The CRASH-2 trial: a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of the effects of tranexamic acid on death, vascular occlusive events and transfusion requirement in bleeding trauma patients

BACKGROUND Among trauma patients who survive to reach hospital, exsanguination is a common cause of death. A widely practicable treatment that reduces blood loss after trauma could prevent thousands of premature deaths each year. The CRASH-2 trial aimed to determine the effect of the early administration of tranexamic acid on death and transfusion requirement in bleeding trauma patients. In addition, the effort of tranexamic acid on the risk of vascular occlusive events was assessed. OBJECTIVE Tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces bleeding in patients undergoing elective surgery. We assessed the effects and cost-effectiveness of the early administration of a short course of TXA on death, vascular occlusive events and the receipt of blood transfusion in trauma patients. DESIGN Randomised placebo-controlled trial and economic evaluation. Randomisation was balanced by centre, with an allocation sequence based on a block size of eight, generated with a computer random number generator. Both participants and study staff (site investigators and trial co-ordinating centre staff) were masked to treatment allocation. All analyses were by intention to treat. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness. The health outcome was the number of life-years (LYs) gained. Cost data were obtained from hospitals, the World Health Organization database and UK reference costs. Cost-effectiveness was measured in international dollars (