Paddy Gillespie

ATLANTIC DIP: simplifying the follow-up of women with previous gestational diabetes

OBJECTIVE Previous gestational diabetes (GDM) is associated with a significant lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes. In this study, we assessed the performance of HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) measurements against that of 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) for the follow-up screening of women with previous GDM. METHODS Two hundred and sixty-six women with previous GDM underwent the follow-up testing (mean of 2.6 years (s.d. 1.0) post-index pregnancy) using HbA1c (100%), and 75 g OGTT (89%) or FPG (11%). American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria for abnormal glucose tolerance were used. DESIGN, COHORT STUDY, AND RESULTS The ADA HbA1c high-risk cut-off of 39 mmol/mol yielded sensitivity of 45% (95% CI 32, 59), specificity of 84% (95% CI 78, 88), negative predictive value (NPV) of 87% (95% CI 82, 91) and positive predictive value (PPV) of 39% (95% CI 27, 52) for detecting abnormal glucose tolerance. ADA high-risk criterion for FPG of 5.6 mmol/l showed sensitivity of 80% (95% CI 66, 89), specificity of 100% (95% CI 98, 100), NPV of 96% (95% CI 92, 98) and PPV of 100% (95% CI 91, 100). Combining HbA1c ≥39 mmol/mol with FPG ≥5.6 mmol/l yielded sensitivity of 90% (95% CI 78, 96), specificity of 84% (95% CI 78, 88), NPV of 97% (95% CI 94, 99) and PPV of 56% (95% CI 45, 66). CONCLUSIONS Combining test cut-offs of 5.6 mmol/l and HbA1c 39 mmol/mol identifies 90% of women with abnormal glucose tolerance post-GDM (mean 2.6 years (s.d.1.0) post-index pregnancy). Applying this follow-up strategy will reduce the number of OGTT tests required by 70%, will be more convenient for women and their practitioners, and is likely to lead to increased uptake of long-term retesting by these women whose risk for type 2 diabetes is substantially increased.

Modeling the Independent Effects of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus on Maternity Care and Costs

OBJECTIVE To explore the independent effects of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on maternity care and costs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Estimates for maternity care resource activity and costs for 4,372 women, of whom 354 (8.1%) were diagnosed with GDM, were generated from data from the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy (ATLANTIC DIP) database. Multivariate regression analysis was applied to explore the effects of GDM on 1) mode of delivery, 2) neonatal unit admission, and 3) maternity care cost, while controlling for a range of other demographic and clinical variables. RESULTS Women with a diagnosis of GDM had significantly higher levels of emergency caesarean section (odds ratio [OR] 1.75 [95% CI 1.08–2.81]), their infants had significantly higher levels of neonatal unit admission (3.14 [2.27–4.34]), and costs of care were 34% greater (25–43) than in women without GDM. Other variables that significantly increased costs were weight, age, primiparity, and premature delivery. CONCLUSIONS GDM plays an independent role in explaining variations in rates of emergency caesarean section, neonatal unit admission, and costs of care, placing a substantial economic burden on maternity care services. Interventions that prevent the onset of GDM have the potential to yield substantial economic and clinical benefits.

The cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention for the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease

OBJECTIVES The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. METHODS Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. RESULTS The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of euro512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], -1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, -0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay euro45,000 per additional QALY. CONCLUSIONS Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice.

Estimating the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland

Dementia is a costly condition and one that differs from other conditions in the significant cost burden placed on informal caregivers. The aim of this analysis was to estimate the economic and social costs of dementia in Ireland in 2010. With an estimate of 41,470 people with dementia, the total baseline annual cost was found to be over €1.69 billion, 48% of which was attributable to the opportunity cost of informal care provided by family and friends and 43% to residential care. Due to the impact of demographic ageing in the coming decades and the expected increase in the number of people with dementia, family caregivers and the general health and social care system will come under increasing pressure to provide adequate levels of care. Without a significant increase in the amount of resources devoted to dementia, it is unclear how the system will cope in the future.

The effectiveness of a structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme for improving the health status of people with moderate and severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care: the PRINCE cluster randomised trial

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of a structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme on the health status of people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Design Two-arm, cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting 32 general practices in the Republic of Ireland. Participants 350 participants with a diagnosis of moderate or severe COPD. Intervention Experimental group received a structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme, delivered by the practice nurse and physiotherapist. Control group received usual care. Main outcome measure Health status as measured by the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) at baseline and at 12–14 weeks postcompletion of the programme. Results Participants allocated to the intervention group had statistically significant higher mean change total CRQ scores (adjusted mean difference (MD) 1.11, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.87). However, the CI does not exclude a smaller difference than the one that was prespecified as clinically important. Participants allocated to the intervention group also had statistically significant higher mean CRQ Dyspnoea scores after intervention (adjusted MD 0.49, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.78) and CRQ Physical scores (adjusted MD 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.60). However, CIs for both the CRQ Dyspnoea and CRQ Physical subscales do not exclude smaller differences as prespecified as clinically important. No other statistically significant differences between groups were seen. Conclusions A primary care based structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme is feasible and may increase local accessibility to people with moderate and severe COPD. Trial registration ISRCTN52403063.

Cost effectiveness of peer support for type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study is to examine the cost-effectiveness of a group-based peer support intervention in general practice for patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS Incremental cost utility analysis combining within trial and beyond trial components to compare the lifetime costs and benefits of alternative strategies: CONTROL standardized diabetes care; INTERVENTION group-based peer support in addition to standardized diabetes care. Within trial analysis was based on a cluster randomized controlled trial of 395 patients with type 2 diabetes in the east of Ireland. Beyond trial analysis was conducted using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Uncertainty was explored using a range of sensitivity analyses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated. RESULTS Compared with the control strategy, the intervention was associated with an increase of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], -0.05 to 0.25) in mean quality-adjusted life-years per patient and savings of €637.43 (95 percent CI, -2455.19 to 1125.45) in mean healthcare cost per patient and €623.39 (95 percent CI, -2507.98 to 1298.49) in mean total cost per patient respectively. The likelihood of the intervention being cost-effective was appreciably higher than 80 percent for a range of potential willingness-to-pay cost-effectiveness thresholds. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that while a group-based peer support intervention shows a trend toward improved risk factor management, we found no significant differences in final cost or effectiveness endpoints between intervention and control. The probabilistic results suggest that the intervention was more cost-effective, with probability values of higher than 80 percent across a range of potential cost-effectiveness threshold values.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of opportunistic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in Ireland

Objective The objective of this study was to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of opportunistic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in Ireland. Methods Prospective cost analysis of an opportunistic screening programme delivered jointly in three types of healthcare facility in Ireland. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an existing dynamic modelling framework to compare screening to a control of no organised screening. A healthcare provider perspective was adopted with respect to costs and included the costs of screening and the costs of complications arising from untreated infection. Two outcome measures were examined: major outcomes averted, comprising cases of pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy and tubal factor infertility in women, neonatal conjunctivitis and pneumonia, and epididymitis in men; and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained. Uncertainty was explored using sensitivity analyses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results The average cost per component of screening was estimated at €26 per offer, €66 per negative case, €152 per positive case and €74 per partner notified and treated. The modelled screening scenario was projected to be more effective and more costly than the control strategy. The incremental cost per major outcomes averted was €6093, and the incremental cost per QALY gained was €94 717. For cost-effectiveness threshold values of €45 000 per QALY gained and lower, the probability of the screening being cost effective was estimated at <1%. Conclusions An opportunistic chlamydia screening programme, as modelled in this study, would be expensive to implement nationally and is unlikely to be judged cost effective by policy makers in Ireland.

The effects of dependence and function on costs of care for Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in Ireland†

To explore the incremental effects of patient dependence and function on costs of care for patients with Alzheimers disease (AD) and amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in Ireland.

The cost-effectiveness of a structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care: the PRINCE cluster randomised trial.

Objective To assess the cost-effectiveness of a structured education pulmonary rehabilitation programme (SEPRP) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) relative to usual practice in primary care. The programme consisted of group-based sessions delivered jointly by practice nurses and physiotherapists over 8 weeks. Design Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting 32 general practices in Ireland. Participants 350 adults with COPD, 69% of whom were moderately affected. Interventions Intervention arm (n=178) received a 2 h group-based SEPRP session per week over 8 weeks delivered jointly by a practice nurse and physiotherapist at the practice surgery or nearby venue. The control arm (n=172) received the usual practice in primary care. Main outcome measures Incremental costs, Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) scores, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained estimated using the generic EQ5D instrument, and expected cost-effectiveness at 22 weeks trial follow-up. Results The intervention was associated with an increase of €944 (95% CIs 489 to 1400) in mean healthcare cost and €261 (95% CIs 226 to 296) in mean patient cost. The intervention was associated with a mean improvement of 1.11 (95% CIs 0.35 to 1.87) in CRQ Total score and 0.002 (95% CIs −0.006 to 0.011) in QALYs gained. These translated into incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of €850 per unit increase in CRQ Total score and €472 000 per additional QALY gained. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective at respective threshold values of €5000, €15 000, €25 000, €35 000 and €45 000 was 0.980, 0.992, 0.994, 0.994 and 0.994 in the CRQ Total score analysis compared to 0.000, 0.001, 0.001, 0.003 and 0.007 in the QALYs gained analysis. Conclusions While analysis suggests that SEPRP was cost-effective if society is willing to pay at least €850 per one-point increase in disease-specific CRQ, no evidence exists when effectiveness was measured in QALYS gained. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52 403 063.

Does Overweight and Obesity Impact on Self-Rated Health? Evidence Using Instrumental Variables Ordered Probit Models

This paper, for the first time, presents estimates of the causal impact of overweight and obesity on self-rated health (SRH) using instrumental variables (IV) econometric methods. While a number of previous studies have sought to better understand the determinants of SRH, there is no consensus in relation to the impact of overweight and obesity. Using data from a large nationally representative sample of Irish parents and their children, we estimate a range of ordered probit models to isolate the causal effect of overweight and obesity on SRH. Our data includes independently and objectively recorded weight and height measures for parents and their children and we instrument for parental body mass index (BMI) status using the BMI of a biological child. After controlling for a range of individual, socioeconomic, health and lifestyle related variables, we find that being overweight has a negligible impact on SRH, while being obese has a practically and statistically significant negative impact on SRH, with these effects most pronounced for those who are most obese. We find only minor differences in these effects across gender. Copyright