Päivi Lujala

A Diamond Curse? Civil War and a Lootable Resource

While territory, oil, and water are frequently mentioned as resources likely to promote interstate conflict, diamonds have emerged as a prominent factor in explanations of civil war. In this article, the authors report on a new database on diamond deposits and production and analyze the relationship between diamonds and armed conflict incidence. They find a strong bivariate relationship between diamonds (particularly secondary diamonds) and the onset of civil war. Adding diamond dummies to standard models of civil war, the results are more mixed. The production of secondary diamonds increases the risk of onset of ethnic war, but not other types of war. The authors find evidence that secondary diamonds are positively related to the incidence of civil war, especially in countries divided along ethnic lines. Primary diamonds, on the other hand, make ethnic war onset and incidence less likely. The authors also find that the impact of diamonds has been substantially stronger in the post-cold war era.

THE SPOILS OF NATURE: : ARMED CIVIL CONFLICT AND REBEL ACCESS TO NATURAL RESOURCES

Why is armed civil conflict more common in resource-dependent countries than in others? Several studies have attempted to unravel mechanisms on why natural resources are linked to armed conflict, but no coherent picture has yet emerged. This article seeks to address this puzzle by concentrating on the issue of how rebel access to natural resources affects conflict. It uses data on gemstone and hydrocarbon localities throughout the world and controls for the spatial and temporal overlap of resources and conflict. The results show that the location of resources is crucial to their impact on conflict duration. If resources are located inside the actual conflict zone, the duration of conflict is doubled. Interestingly, oil and gas reserves have this effect on duration regardless of whether there has been production or not. In addition, a country-level analysis suggests that oil production increases the risk of conflict onset when located onshore; offshore production has no effect on onset. These results support the assertion that natural resources play a central role in armed civil conflicts because of the incentives and opportunities they present for rebel groups.

Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict

Why do some armed civil conflicts last longer than others? Drawing on a contest success function model, we show that geographic factors (such as location, terrain, and natural resources) interact with rebel fighting capacity and together play a crucial role in determining the duration of conflict. Using precisely dated duration data in event history models and geographic data for the conflict location, we find that conflicts located at considerable distance from the main government stronghold, along remote international borders and in regions with valuable minerals last substantially longer. In addition, we find that rebel military capacity in its own right increases the prospects of a civil conflict ending within a short time period. Our findings imply that the distances an army must travel to project power, rebel fighting capacity, and characteristics of conflict region affect how a civil war is fought and who will prevail.

Fighting over Oil: Introducing a New Dataset

Recent research on armed civil conflict has suggested that oil-producing countries tend to experience conflict more often than their non-oil-producing counterparts. However, this research relies on weak and incomplete measures of petroleum resources. To facilitate more rigorous research on the possible links between hydrocarbons and conflict, this paper presents and describes a new global dataset, PETRODATA. The dataset includes 890 onshore and 383 offshore locations with geographic coordinates and information on the first oil or gas discovery and production year. PETRODATA allows researchers to control for both the spatial and temporal overlap of regions with hydrocarbon reserves and armed conflict. To illustrate the use of data, we conduct a duration analysis on the types of armed civil conflict. The results suggest that oil and gas located in conflict area lengthen governmental conflicts but have no effect on conflicts over territory.

Deadly Combat over Natural Resources

This article empirically examines how natural resources affect the severity of armed civil conflict. It finds that drug cultivation in the conflict area is associated with less severe conflicts but that gemstone mining and oil and gas in the conflict zone production increase the severity of conflicts. Most severe are secessionist conflicts in regions with hydrocarbon production. Interestingly, oil and gas production outside the conflict zones is related to less severe conflicts. Measured at the country level, none of the resource variables has an effect on conflict severity. These results have four implications. First, availability of natural resources affects the severity of armed civil conflict. Second, the location of resources is crucial to their impact on conflict. Third, the type of resource matters. Above all, it seems that natural resources affect conflict severity by altering incentives for both the rebel group and the state.

Conflict Diamonds: A New Dataset

Natural resources, and diamonds especially, are commonly believed to play a significant role in the onset and duration of armed civil conflict. Although there is ample case study evidence that diamonds and similar resources have been used by rebel groups to finance fighting, there are few systematic empirical studies assessing the role of lootable resources in civil conflict. This is largely due to lack of reliable data on production and location. In this article we discuss priorities for the collection of data on conflict-relevant resources and introduce a new dataset, DIADATA, that provides a comprehensive list of diamond deposits accompanied by geographic coordinates throughout the world. The dataset includes characteristics relevant to conflict such as production status and geological form of the deposit. Particularly important is the distinction between primary and secondary diamonds, because the latter are more easily lootable. The dataset incorporates a spatial as well as a temporal dimension.

Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict:

Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

Social vulnerability assessment for Norway: A quantitative approach

The article presents a method for quantifying social vulnerability to natural hazards in Norwegian municipalities. In the analysis, a large number of variables that each measures a facet of a municipalitys susceptibility to a potential hazard are used. Using factor analysis, the information in the variables is reduced to a smaller number of factors and socioeconomic and built environment vulnerability scores for each Norwegian municipality are calculated. The resulting scores in the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Built Environment Index are mapped for each municipality. The results show that there are pronounced regional differences: municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability cluster in the northern half of Norway and parts of the south-east. The least vulnerable region is south-western Norway. Built environment vulnerability is highest in densely populated areas. By indicating municipalities with a high level of vulnerability, the method presented in this article is a useful tool in identifying regions which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event. The results can be used in, for example, planning mitigation efforts against extreme weather events, which are likely to be more frequent and severe in the future due to climate change.

One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

Replicating and Adapting an Index of Social Vulnerability to a New Context: A Comparison Study for Norway

In this article, we first replicate and then adapt an existing index of social vulnerability to hazard developed for the United States to a non-U.S. context. We construct indexes for Norwegian municipalities, describe the adjustment process, and compare the replicated and adapted assessments. Our results indicate only a moderate correlation between the replicated and adapted vulnerability indexes and for several municipalities the difference between the indexes is considerable. This demonstrates that context matters and that indexes of vulnerability need to be adapted rather than replicated. To facilitate such adaption processes, we identify three types of accommodation: conceptual, technical, and geographic.