Pål Boug

Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach

During the last decades Norwegian exporters have–despite various forms of exchange rate targeting–faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour. Recently, the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more volatile exchange rate. We examine the causal link between export performance and exchange rate volatility across different monetary policy regimes within the cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework using the implied conditional variance from a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model as a measure of volatility. Although treating the volatility measure as either a stationary or a nonstationary variable in the VAR, we are not able to find any evidence suggesting that export performance has been significantly affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We find, however, that volatility changes proxied by blip dummies related to the monetary policy change from a fixed to a managed floating exchange rate and the Asian financial crises during the 1990s enter significantly in a dynamic model for export growth–in which the level of relative prices and world market demand together with the level of exports constitute a significant cointegration relationship. A forecasting exercise on the dynamic model rejects the hypothesis that increased exchange rate volatility in the wake of inflation targeting in the monetary policy has had a significant impact on export performance.

Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.

Calculating the real return on a sovereign wealth fund

We present a new methodology for calculating the real return on sovereign wealth funds (SWF) that share the investment objective of maximizing international purchasing power in terms of goods and services. Specifically, we modify the traditional approach for deflating the nominal return along three dimensions: the aggregator formula, the measure of international prices and the weighting scheme. We argue that a geometric average of price levels is an appropriate aggregator formula for capturing the deflationary effects of imports increasingly originating from low-cost countries, and that import prices paid by the SWF owner and weights reflecting the owners import pattern are consistent with the investment objective. Our proposed approach, using the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global as an illustration, raises the estimated average annual real rate of return over the sample period of 19982012 from 3.1% to 4.9%.

Norwegian Gas Sales and the Impacts on European CO2

This paper studies the impacts on Western European CO2 emissions of a reduction in Norwegian gas sales. Such impacts are due to changes in energy demand, energy supply, and environmental and political regulations. The gas supply model DYNOPOLY is used to analyse the effects on Russian and Algerian gas exports of a reduction in Norwegian gas supply. The effects on the demand side and the effects of committing to CO2 targets are analysed using the energy demand model SEEM. If Western European countries commit to their announced CO2 emissions targets, reduced Norwegian gas sales have no impact on emissions. The consumption of oil and coal will increase slightly, while total energy consumption will go down. Also, a reduction in Norwegian gas sales have only minor impacts on the CO2 emissions from Western Europe when no emissions regulations are considered.