Pamela M. Marcus

Reduced lung-cancer mortality with low-dose computed tomographic screening.

BACKGROUND The aggressive and heterogeneous nature of lung cancer has thwarted efforts to reduce mortality from this cancer through the use of screening. The advent of low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) altered the landscape of lung-cancer screening, with studies indicating that low-dose CT detects many tumors at early stages. The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) was conducted to determine whether screening with low-dose CT could reduce mortality from lung cancer. METHODS From August 2002 through April 2004, we enrolled 53,454 persons at high risk for lung cancer at 33 U.S. medical centers. Participants were randomly assigned to undergo three annual screenings with either low-dose CT (26,722 participants) or single-view posteroanterior chest radiography (26,732). Data were collected on cases of lung cancer and deaths from lung cancer that occurred through December 31, 2009. RESULTS The rate of adherence to screening was more than 90%. The rate of positive screening tests was 24.2% with low-dose CT and 6.9% with radiography over all three rounds. A total of 96.4% of the positive screening results in the low-dose CT group and 94.5% in the radiography group were false positive results. The incidence of lung cancer was 645 cases per 100,000 person-years (1060 cancers) in the low-dose CT group, as compared with 572 cases per 100,000 person-years (941 cancers) in the radiography group (rate ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.23). There were 247 deaths from lung cancer per 100,000 person-years in the low-dose CT group and 309 deaths per 100,000 person-years in the radiography group, representing a relative reduction in mortality from lung cancer with low-dose CT screening of 20.0% (95% CI, 6.8 to 26.7; P=0.004). The rate of death from any cause was reduced in the low-dose CT group, as compared with the radiography group, by 6.7% (95% CI, 1.2 to 13.6; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Screening with the use of low-dose CT reduces mortality from lung cancer. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; National Lung Screening Trial ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).

Results of Initial Low-Dose Computed Tomographic Screening for Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND Lung cancer is the largest contributor to mortality from cancer. The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) showed that screening with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) rather than with chest radiography reduced mortality from lung cancer. We describe the screening, diagnosis, and limited treatment results from the initial round of screening in the NLST to inform and improve lung-cancer-screening programs. METHODS At 33 U.S. centers, from August 2002 through April 2004, we enrolled asymptomatic participants, 55 to 74 years of age, with a history of at least 30 pack-years of smoking. The participants were randomly assigned to undergo annual screening, with the use of either low-dose CT or chest radiography, for 3 years. Nodules or other suspicious findings were classified as positive results. This article reports findings from the initial screening examination. RESULTS A total of 53,439 eligible participants were randomly assigned to a study group (26,715 to low-dose CT and 26,724 to chest radiography); 26,309 participants (98.5%) and 26,035 (97.4%), respectively, underwent screening. A total of 7191 participants (27.3%) in the low-dose CT group and 2387 (9.2%) in the radiography group had a positive screening result; in the respective groups, 6369 participants (90.4%) and 2176 (92.7%) had at least one follow-up diagnostic procedure, including imaging in 5717 (81.1%) and 2010 (85.6%) and surgery in 297 (4.2%) and 121 (5.2%). Lung cancer was diagnosed in 292 participants (1.1%) in the low-dose CT group versus 190 (0.7%) in the radiography group (stage 1 in 158 vs. 70 participants and stage IIB to IV in 120 vs. 112). Sensitivity and specificity were 93.8% and 73.4% for low-dose CT and 73.5% and 91.3% for chest radiography, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The NLST initial screening results are consistent with the existing literature on screening by means of low-dose CT and chest radiography, suggesting that a reduction in mortality from lung cancer is achievable at U.S. screening centers that have staff experienced in chest CT. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).

Results of the Two Incidence Screenings in the National Lung Screening Trial

BACKGROUND The National Lung Screening Trial was conducted to determine whether three annual screenings (rounds T0, T1, and T2) with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT), as compared with chest radiography, could reduce mortality from lung cancer. We present detailed findings from the first two incidence screenings (rounds T1 and T2). METHODS We evaluated the rate of adherence of the participants to the screening protocol, the results of screening and downstream diagnostic tests, features of the lung-cancer cases, and first-line treatments, and we estimated the performance characteristics of both screening methods. RESULTS At the T1 and T2 rounds, positive screening results were observed in 27.9% and 16.8% of participants in the low-dose CT group and in 6.2% and 5.0% of participants in the radiography group, respectively. In the low-dose CT group, the sensitivity was 94.4%, the specificity was 72.6%, the positive predictive value was 2.4%, and the negative predictive value was 99.9% at T1; at T2, the positive predictive value increased to 5.2%. In the radiography group, the sensitivity was 59.6%, the specificity was 94.1%, the positive predictive value was 4.4%, and the negative predictive value was 99.8% at T1; both the sensitivity and the positive predictive value increased at T2. Among lung cancers of known stage, 87 (47.5%) were stage IA and 57 (31.1%) were stage III or IV in the low-dose CT group at T1; in the radiography group, 31 (23.5%) were stage IA and 78 (59.1%) were stage III or IV at T1. These differences in stage distribution between groups persisted at T2. CONCLUSIONS Low-dose CT was more sensitive in detecting early-stage lung cancers, but its measured positive predictive value was lower than that of radiography. As compared with radiography, the two annual incidence screenings with low-dose CT resulted in a decrease in the number of advanced-stage cancers diagnosed and an increase in the number of early-stage lung cancers diagnosed. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; NLST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047385.).

Baseline Characteristics of Participants in the Randomized National Lung Screening Trial

Background The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), a randomized study conducted at 33 US sites, is comparing lung cancer mortality among persons screened with reduced dose helical computerized tomography and among persons screened with chest radiograph. In this article, we present characteristics of the study population. Methods Eligible participants were aged 55–74 years and were current or former smokers with a cigarette smoking history of at least 30 pack-years. Randomization was stratified by site, sex, and age. To assess representativeness of the study population, demographic characteristics of individuals from the general population who met NLST age and smoking history inclusion criteria were obtained from the Tobacco Use Supplement of the US Census Bureau Current Population Surveys. Results The NLST enrolled 53 456 persons, with 26 733 randomly assigned to chest radiograph screening and 26 723 to computerized tomography screening. Characteristics of the participants were as follows: 31 533 (59%) were men, 39 234 (73%) were younger than 65 years, 25 779 (48%) were current smokers, and 16 839 (32%) had a college or higher degree. Median cigarette exposure was 48 pack-years. Among Tobacco Use Supplement respondents who met NLST age and smoking history criteria, 59% were men, 65% were younger than 65 years, and 57% were current smokers. Median cigarette exposure among this group was 47 pack-years, and 14% had a college degree or higher. Conclusion The NLST cohort has a distribution of sex and pack-year history that is similar to the component of the general US population that meets the major NLST eligibility criteria; however, NLST participants are younger, better educated, and less likely to be current smokers.

Race and Colorectal Cancer Disparities: Health-Care Utilization vs Different Cancer Susceptibilities

BACKGROUND It is unclear whether the disproportionately higher incidence and mortality from colorectal cancer among blacks compared with whites reflect differences in health-care utilization or colorectal cancer susceptibility. METHODS A total of 60, 572 non-Hispanic white and black participants in the ongoing Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial underwent trial-sponsored screening flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSG) without biopsy at baseline in 10 geographically dispersed centers from November 1993 to July 2001. Subjects with polyps or mass lesions detected by FSG were referred to their physicians for diagnostic workup, the cost of which was not covered by PLCO. The records of follow-up evaluations were collected and reviewed. We used log binomial modeling with adjustment for age, education, sex, body mass index, smoking, family history of colorectal cancer, colon examination within previous 3 years, personal history of polyps, and screening center to examine whether utilization of diagnostic colonoscopy and yield of neoplasia differed by race. RESULTS Among 57 561 whites and 3011 blacks who underwent FSG, 13,743 (23.9%) and 767 (25.5%) had abnormal examinations, respectively. A total of 9944 (72.4%) whites and 480 (62.6%) blacks had diagnostic colonoscopy within 1 year following the abnormal FSG screening. When compared with whites, blacks were less likely to undergo diagnostic evaluation (adjusted risk ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.83 to 0.93). Overall, among subjects with diagnostic colonoscopy (n = 10 424), there was no statistically significant difference by race in the prevalence of adenoma, advanced adenoma, advanced pathology in small adenomas (high-grade dysplasia or villous histology in adenomas <10 mm), or colorectal cancer. CONCLUSIONS We observed a lower follow-up for screen-detected abnormalities among blacks when compared with whites but little difference in the yield of colorectal neoplasia. Health-care utilization may be playing more of a role in colorectal cancer racial disparity than biology.

Cumulative Incidence of False-Positive Test Results in Lung Cancer Screening: A Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND Direct-to-consumer promotion of lung cancer screening has increased, especially low-dose computed tomography (CT). However, screening exposes healthy persons to potential harms, and cumulative false-positive rates for low-dose CT have never been formally reported. OBJECTIVE To quantify the cumulative risk that a person who participated in a 1- or 2-year lung cancer screening examination would receive at least 1 false-positive result, as well as rates of unnecessary diagnostic procedures. DESIGN Randomized, controlled trial of low-dose CT versus chest radiography. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00006382) SETTING Feasibility study for the ongoing National Lung Screening Trial. PATIENTS Current or former smokers, aged 55 to 74 years, with a smoking history of 30 pack-years or more and no history of lung cancer (n = 3190). INTERVENTION Random assignment to low-dose CT or chest radiography with baseline and 1 repeated annual screening; 1-year follow-up after the final screening. Randomization was centralized and stratified by age, sex, and study center. MEASUREMENTS False-positive screenings, defined as a positive screening with a completed negative work-up or 12 months or more of follow-up with no lung cancer diagnosis. RESULTS By using a Kaplan-Meier analysis, a persons cumulative probability of 1 or more false-positive low-dose CT examinations was 21% (95% CI, 19% to 23%) after 1 screening and 33% (CI, 31% to 35%) after 2. The rates for chest radiography were 9% (CI, 8% to 11%) and 15% (CI, 13% to 16%), respectively. A total of 7% of participants with a false-positive low-dose CT examination and 4% with a false-positive chest radiography had a resulting invasive procedure. LIMITATIONS Screening was limited to 2 rounds. Follow-up after the second screening was limited to 12 months. The false-negative rate is probably an underestimate. CONCLUSION Risks for false-positive results on lung cancer screening tests are substantial after only 2 annual examinations, particularly for low-dose CT. Further study of resulting economic, psychosocial, and physical burdens of these methods is warranted. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE National Cancer Institute.

Breast cancer epidemiology according to recognized breast cancer risk factors in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial Cohort

BackgroundMultidisciplinary attempts to understand the etiology of breast cancer are expanding to increasingly include new potential markers of disease risk. Those efforts may have maximal scientific and practical influence if new findings are placed in context of the well-understood lifestyle and reproductive risk factors or existing risk prediction models for breast cancer. We therefore evaluated known risk factors for breast cancer in a cancer screening trial that does not have breast cancer as a study endpoint but is large enough to provide numerous analytic opportunities for breast cancer.MethodsWe evaluated risk factors for breast cancer (N = 2085) among 70,575 women who were randomized in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Using Poisson regression, we calculated adjusted relative risks [RRs, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for lifestyle and reproductive factors during an average of 5 years of follow-up from date of randomization.ResultsAs expected, increasing age, nulliparity, positive family history of breast cancer, and use of menopausal hormone therapy were positively associated with breast cancer. Later age at menarche (16 years or older vs. < 12: RR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.65–1.02) or menopause (55 years or older vs. < 45: RR = 1.29, 95% CI, 1.03–1.62) were less strongly associated with breast cancer than was expected. There were weak positive associations between taller height and heavier weight, and only severe obesity [body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) 35 or more vs. 18.5–24.9: RR = 1.21, 95% CI, 1.02–1.43] was statistically significantly associated with breast cancer.ConclusionThe ongoing PLCO trial offers continued opportunities for new breast cancer investigations, but these analyses suggest that the associations between breast cancer and age at menarche, age at menopause, and obesity might be changing as the underlying demographics of these factors change.Clinical Trials Registrationhttp://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00002540.

Enrollment of racial and ethnic minorities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND Minority populations in the United States, especially blacks and Hispanics, are generally underrepresented among participants in clinical trials. Here, we report the experience of enrolling ethnic minorities in a large cancer screening trial. METHODS The Prostate, Colorectal, Lung and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial is a multicenter randomized trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of screening for the PLCO cancers. Subjects were recruited at 10 U.S. centers between 1993 and 2001. One screening center had a major special recruitment effort for blacks and another center had a major special recruitment effort for Hispanics. RESULTS Among almost 155,000 subjects enrolled in PLCO, minority enrollment was as follows: black (5.0%), Hispanic (1.8%) and Asian (3.6%). This compares to an age-eligible population in the combined catchment areas of the PLCO centers that was 14.0% black, 2.9% Hispanic and 5.4% Asian, and an age-eligible population across the U.S. that was 9.5% black, 6.5% Hispanic and 3.0% Asian. About half (45%) of Hispanics were recruited at the center with the special Hispanic recruitment effort. Seventy percent of blacks were recruited at two centers; the one with the major special recruitment effort and a center in Detroit whose catchment area was 20% black among age-eligibles. Blacks, Hispanics and (non-Hispanic) whites were all more highly educated, less likely to currently smoke and more likely to get regular exercise than their counterparts in the general population. CONCLUSION Significant efforts were made to recruit racial/ ethnic minorities into PLCO, and these efforts resulted in enrollment levels that were comparable to those seen in many recent cancer screening or prevention trials. Blacks and Hispanics were nonetheless underrepresented in PLCO compared to their levels among age-eligibles in the overall U.S. population or in the aggregate PLCO catchment areas.

Death certificates provide an adequate source of cause of death information when evaluating lung cancer mortality: an example from the Mayo Lung Project

To assess the accuracy of death certificates in assigning lung cancer as the underlying cause of death, death certificate data were compared to mortality review committee-determined causes of death among participants in the Mayo Lung Project. Further, the impact of death certificate misclassification on lung cancer mortality rates and Cox proportional hazards models was evaluated. The Mayo Lung Project (1971-1983) was a randomized controlled trial of lung cancer screening; participants were male smokers aged 45 years and older who were seen as outpatients at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Overall there were 237 lung cancer deaths according to mortality review, and 224 according to the death certificate (sensitivity 88.6 percent, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 83.9, 92.4; specificity 99.1 percent, 95 percent CI 98.6, 99.5). As compared to the mortality review committees determination, the use of death certificate data resulted only in slight decreases to the calculated lung cancer mortality rates for each screening arm, and did not result in appreciable changes to hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality in Cox regression models. In these data, death certificates were sufficiently sensitive and specific such that their use did not result in a meaningful change to mortality-based outcomes.

Likelihood of missed and recurrent adenomas in the proximal versus the distal colon

BACKGROUND Colonoscopy may be less efficacious in reducing colorectal cancer mortality in the proximal compared with the distal colon. A greater likelihood for missed and recurrent adenomas in the proximal colon may contribute to this phenomenon. OBJECTIVE To examine whether a proximal adenoma is associated with the risk and location of missed and recurrent adenomas. DESIGN Prospective. SETTING Polyp Prevention Trial. PARTICIPANTS A total of 1864 patients with an adenoma at baseline underwent a follow-up colonoscopy 4 years later (adenoma recurrence). Of these, 1731 underwent a clearing colonoscopy 1 year after the baseline examination (missed adenoma). MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS Association of baseline adenoma location with the risk and location of adenomas found at colonoscopy performed 1 year and 4 years later. RESULTS At the year 1 colonoscopy, 598 patients (34.6%) had an adenoma (missed adenoma). Compared with those with a distal-only adenoma at baseline, patients with a proximal-only adenoma at baseline were more likely to have any missed adenomas (relative risk [RR] 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09-1.49) and a proximal-only missed adenoma (RR 2.05; 95% CI, 1.49-2.80). At the year 4 colonoscopy, 733 patients (39.3%) had adenoma recurrence. Patients with a baseline proximal-only adenoma were more likely to have any adenoma recurrence (RR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31) and a proximal-only adenoma recurrence (RR 1.52; 95% CI, 1.15-2.02). Sensitivity analyses involving missed adenomas did not materially affect the risk or location of recurrent adenomas at year 4 colonoscopy. LIMITATION Lesions may still be missed on repeated colonoscopies. CONCLUSIONS Missed and recurrent adenomas are more likely to be in the proximal colon.