Panos Varangis

Can Financial Markets be Tapped to Help Poor People Cope with Weather Risks

Poor households in rural areas are particularly vulnerable to risks that reduce incomes and increase expenditures. Most past research has focused on risk-coping strategies for the rural poor, specially on micro-level and household actions. These are risks that can been shared within a community or extended family. These strategies are effective for independent risks, but ineffective for covariate or systemic risks. The authors focus on private and public mechanisms for managing covariate risk for natural disasters. When many households within the same community face risks that create losses for all, traditional coping mechanisms are likely to fail. Such covariate risks are not uncommon in many developing countries, especially where farming remains a major source of income. The authors focus on risks related to weather events (such as excess rain, droughts, freezes, and high winds) that have a severe impact on rural incomes. Weather insurance could cover the covariate risk for a community of poor households through formal and informal risk-sharing arrangements among households that are purchasing these weather contracts. Given recent Mexican innovations targeted at helping the poor cope with catastrophe weather events, the authors use Mexico as a case study. In Mexico, poor households are exposed to systemic risks, such as droughts and floods, that affect the economic livelihood of their region. Catastrophic insurance is useful for small farmers, although commercially oriented small farmers may wish to obtain coverage for less catastrophic events. Weather insurance could meet this need. It pays out according to the frequency and intensity of specific weather events. Because weather insurance depends on the occurrences and objective measure of intensity of a specific event, it does not require individual farm inspection that can be very costly for small farm. The authors argue that a key issue of delivering insurance to small farmers is the existence of producer organizations. In Mexico, the farmer mutual insurance funds provide a good example. These funds provide insurance to their members by pulling together resources to pay for future indemnities and reinsures itself from major systemic risks that could hurt simultaneously all their members.

Dealing With the Coffee Crisis in Central America: Impacts and Strategies

Current coffee prices are at record lows and below the cost of production for many producers in Central America. Moreover, the coffee crisis is structural, and changes in supply and demand do not indicate a quick recovery of prices. So, coffee producers in Central America are facing new challenges-as are coffee laborers, coffee exporters, and others linked to the coffee sector. Coffee plays a major economic role in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The coffee crisis is actually part of a broader rural crisis caused by weather shocks (such as Hurricane Mitch and droughts), low international agricultural commodity prices, and the global recession. These challenges call for new strategies for Central American countries aimed at broad-based sustainable development of their rural economies. The authors deal with the impact of the coffee crisis and strategies to deal with it. They include an analysis of the international coffee situation and country-specific analyses. The authors explore options and constraints for increased competitiveness and diversification, and discuss social, environmental, and institutional dimensions of the crisis. The authors conclude that there are specific solutions that can be pursued for the coffee sector. Some are already being applied, but more can be done in a more systematic way. Also, there is a need for safety nets to deal with the short-term impact of the crisis. Longer-term solutions are to be found in increased competitiveness and diversification in the context of broad-based sustainable rural economic development.

Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence

The paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade using an ARCH-in-mean model. The advantages of this statistical approach vis-a-vis earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient coefficient estimates and avoids the problem of spurious regressions.Exchange rate volatility was found to have a negative impact on Canadian and Japanese exports to the United States and on Australian exports to the world. For Sweden, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the relationship was found to be positive. The magnitude of the impact of a 10% increase in exchange rate volatility on export volumes was found to range from a reduction of 7.4% (Canada) to an increase of 5% (Sweden).The results indicate that exports invoiced in the importers currency are affected negatively by exchange rate volatility, and exports invoiced in the exporters currency are affected positively. A partial equilibrium, profit maximization model is derived to support these findings.

Commodity Risk Management and Development

In 1995, 57 countries depended on three commodities for more than half their exports, reports UNCTAD. And commodities, fuels, grains, and oilseeds are important imports for several countries. The notorious volatility of commodity prices is a major source of instability and uncertainty in commodity-dependent countries, affecting governments, producers (farmers), traders, processors, and financial institutions. Further, commodity price instability has a negative impact on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty alleviation. Early attempts to deal with commodity price volatility relied on buffer stocks, buffer funds, government intervention in commodity markets, and international commodity agreements to stabilize prices. These were largely unsuccessful--sometimes spectacularly so. Buffer funds went bankrupt, commodity agreements were suspended, buffer stocks proved ineffective, and government intervention was both costly and ineffective. As the poor performance of such stabilization schemes became more evident, academics and policymakers began distinguishing between programs that tried to alter price distribution (domestically or internationally) and programs that used market-based approaches for dealing with market uncertainty. This change in approach coincided with a significant rise in the use of market-based commodity risk management instruments--aided by the liberalization of markets, the lowering of trade and capital control barriers, and the globalization of commodity markets. by the mid-1990s, several governments, state companies, and private sector participants began using commodity derivatives markets to hedge their commodity price risks. Participation in those markets is growing, but important barriers to access remain including counterparty risk, problems small groups (such as farmers) have aggregating risks, basis risks (no correlation of local and international prices), no local reference prices, low liquidity, no derivatives markets for certain products, and low levels of know-how. International institutions, local governments, and the private sector could facilitate developing countries access to derivatives markets and the use of risk management tools to solve public sector problems.

Dealing with Commodity Price Uncertainty

Liberalization in commodity markets has brought profound changes in the way price risks are allocated and managed in commodity subsectors. Price risks are increasingly allocated to private traders and farmers rather than absorbed by the government. The success of market reform depends on the ability of the emerging private sector to make full use of the available range of modern commodity marketing, price risk management and financing instruments. Because farmers do not generally have access to these instruments, intermediaries must be developed. Larger private traders and banks are in the best position to become these intermediaries. Preconditions needed for accessing modern commodity marketing, price risk management, and financing instruments are: a) creating an appropriate legal, regulatory, and institutional framework; b) reducing government intervention; c) providing training and raising awareness; and d) improving creditworthiness and reducing performance risk. The use of commodity derivative instruments to hedge commodity price risk is not new. The private sectors in many Asian and Latin American countries have been using commodity futures and options for some time. More recently, commodity derivative instruments are being used increasingly in several African countries and many economies in transition. And several developing and transition economies have sought to establish commodity derivative exchanges.

Diversification Benefits of Commodity Assets in Global Portfolios

Recent years bear witness to the increasing role of investment hnds in commodity markets. Funds that traditionally dealt with financial markets have begun diversifying into commodity futures markets. T h e Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), a broad commodity index, offers investors a chance to invest in commodities as a distinct asset class. The economic rationale for such an investment is straightforward. Commodity investments provide an effective hedge against inflation. Moreover, because commodities are negatively correlated with equities, they provide substantial diversification potential. Institutional investors have generally steered clear of commodity markets because of a perception that commodity investments are too risky. They have preferred instead to invest in real estate, which offers an inflation hedge similar to commodities. A major disadvantage of real estate investment, of course, is its illiquidity. The fact that GSCI futures and options are exchange-traded commodity derivatives gives them the inflation hedge advantages of real estate, while substantially enhancing liquidity. Investment in “emerging markets” (i.e.; the newly liberalized markets of developing countries in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and Afi-ica) is receiving similar attention. A number of authors make a strong case for investment in emerging markets. (See, for instance, Errunza and Losq [1987], Levy and Lerman [1988], Speidell and Sappenfield [1992], and Wilcox [1992].) One in every four dollars invested in foreign markets today goes to emerging equity markets. Key investment vehicles are the proliferating country funds, regional funds, and global funds. The performance of commodities in portfolios composed of securities &om developed markets is the subject of investigation by Ankrim and Hensel [1993] and Lummer and Siege1 [1993], but the broader role of commodities in global portfolios composed of equities fiom both developed and emerging markets has not so far been studied. Our article examines the diversification benefits of commodities in the presence of both developed and emerging market assets, and concludes that addtion of even a small percentage of commodities

Agricultural markets and risks - management of the latter, not the former

The authors review the historical relationship between the work of applied economists, and policymakers, and the institutions that came to characterize the commodity, and risk markets of the 1980s. These institutions were a response to the harmful consequences of commodity market volatility, and declining terms of trade. But the chosen policies, and instruments relied on market interventions, to directly affect prices, or the distribution of prices in domestic, and international markets. For practical, and more fundamental reasons, this approach failed. The authors next discuss how a growing body of work, contributed to a change in thinking that moved policy away from stabilization goals, toward policies that emphasized the management of risks. They distinguish between the macroeconomic effects of volatile commodity markets, and the consequences for businesses, and households. The authors argue that both sets of problems remain important development issues, but that appropriate policy instruments are largely separate. Nonetheless, because governments, households, and firms must all respond to a wide range of sources of risk, they emphasize the role for an integrated policy by government. Increasingly, alternative approaches have come to rely on market-based instruments. Such approaches accept the market view of relative prices as immutable, but address directly the negative consequences of volatility. As traditional risk markets (such as futures and insurance markets) expand, and new parametric markets emerge, the practicality of applying market-based instruments to traditional risk, and development problems increases. The authors show the change in approaches to risk, and the reliance on old, and new market instruments, with new, and sometimes experimental programs, with special emphasis on programs at the World Bank.

The Structure of Derivatives Exchanges: Lessons from Developed and Emerging Markets

The authors examine the architecture, elements of market design, and the products traded in derivatives exchanges around the world. The core function of a derivatives exchange is to facilitate the transfer of risk among economic agents by providing mechanisms to enhance liquidity and facilitate price discovery. They test the proposition that organizational arrangements necessary to perform this function are not the same across markets. They also examine the sequencing of products introduced in derivatives exchanges. Using a survey instrument, they find that: a) Financial systems perform the same core functions across time and place but institutional arrangements differ. b) The ownership structure of derivatives exchanges assumes different forms across markets. c) The success of an exchange depends on the structure adopted and the products traded. d) Exchanges are regulated directly or indirectly through a government law. In addition, exchanges have their own regulatory structure. e) Typically (but not always) market-making systems are based on open outcry, with daily mark-to-market and gross margining -- but electronic systems are gaining popularity. f) Several (but not all) exchanges own clearing facilities and use netting settlement procedures. As for derivative products traded, they find that: i) Although most of the older exchanges started with (mainly agricultural) commodity derivatives, newer exchanges first introduce financial derivative products. ii) Derivatives based on a domestic stock index have greater potential for success followed by derivatives based on local interest rates and currencies. iii) The introduction of derivatives contracts appears to take more time in emerging markets compared with developed markets, with the exception of index products.

Warehouse Receipts: Facilitating Credit and Commodity Markets

The lack of access to credit is a severe constraint for many farmers. Warehouse receipts are an important and effective tool for creating liquidity and easing access to credit. Such schemes also offer additional benefits such as smoothing the supply and prices in the market, improving grower incomes, and reducing food losses. The paper describes the steps of interaction involved in a warehouse receipt system, sets out the essential questions to be asked regarding the critical conditions for its success and illustrates the roles of the key actors in setting up and running such a system.

Socialist Republic of Vietnam Coffee Sector Report

Vietnams meteoric rise to become one of the worlds largest coffee producers in world-record time has been matched by equally fast changes in policies and market structure. It has moved from a planned economy to a much more open market orientation and become one of Asias fastest-growing economies. While many benefits can be attributed to the coffee sectors growth, there are also questions about how equitable the socioeconomic impact has been and about the overall sustainability of the sector. This paper offers a thorough look at the functions and trends of the sector within the enlightening context of its history and fundamental structure. It also includes many new calculations and data tables for production, export, acreage planted, value, and more.