Paola A. Arias

Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection

Significance Whether the dry-season length will increase is a central question in determining the fate of the rainforests over Amazonia and the future global atmospheric CO2 concentration. We show observationally that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979. We do not know what has caused this change, although it resembles the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report seem to substantially underestimate the variability of the dry-season length. Such a bias implies that the future change of the dry-season length, and hence the risk of rainforest die-back, may be underestimated by the projections of these models. We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June–August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September–November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.

The diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Tropical Andes of Colombia

Abstract Using hourly records from 51 rain gauges, spanning between 22 and 28 yr, the authors study the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropical Andes of Colombia. Analyses are developed for the seasonal march of the diurnal cycle and its interannual variability during the two phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Also, the diurnal cycle is analyzed at intra-annual time scales, associated with the westerly and easterly phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation, as well as higher-frequency variability (<10 days), mainly associated with tropical easterly wave activity during ENSO contrasting years. Five major general patterns are identified: (i) precipitation exhibits clear-cut diurnal (24 h) and semidiurnal (12 h) cycles; (ii) the minimum of daily precipitation is found during the morning hours (0900–1100 LST) regardless of season or location; (iii) a predominant afternoon peak is found over northeastern and western Colombia; (iv) over the western flank of the central Andes, precipitation ma...

What controls the interannual variation of the wet season onsets over the Amazon

Previous studies have established that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are the main forcing of the interannual variation of the wet season onsets in the Amazon. However, this variation appears to be complex and not uniquely determined by SSTAs. What causes such a complexity and to what extent the interannual variation of the wet season onsets is predictable remain unclear. This study suggests that such a complex relationship is the result of several competing processes, which are nonlinearly related to the SSTAs. In particular, three dry season conditions are crucial for determining interannual variation of the wet season onset. (i) A poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet (SHSJ) over the South American sector, initiated from a wave train-like structure possibly forced by south central Pacific SST patterns, can prevent cold frontal systems from moving northward into the Amazon. This delays cold air incursion and results in late wet season onset over the southern Amazon. (ii) An anomalous anticyclonic center, which enhances westerly wind at 850 hPa over the southern Amazon and also the South American low-level jets, leads to moisture export from the southern Amazon to La Plata basin and reduces convective systems that provide elevated diabatic heating. (iii) Smaller convective available potential energy (CAPE) limits local thermodynamically driven convection. Based on the stepwise and partial least squares regressions, these three selected preseasonal conditions (Nino 4, SHSJ, and CAPE) can explain 57% of the total variance of the wet season onset.

Characterization of four species of Trichuris (Nematoda: Enoplida) by their second internal transcribed spacer ribosomal DNA sequence.

Abstract Adult worms of Trichuris ovis and T. globulosa were collected from Ovis aries (sheep) and Capra hircus (goats). T. suis was isolated from Sus scrofa domestica (swine) and T. leporis was isolated from Lepus europaeus (rabbits) in Spain. Genomic DNA was isolated and a ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) was amplified and sequenced using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) techniques. The ITS2 of T. ovis and T. globulosa was 407 nucleotides in length and had a GC content of about 62%. Furthermore, the ITS2 of T. suis and T. leporis was 534 and 418 nucleotides in length and had a GC content of about 64.8% and 62.4%, respectively. There was evidence of slight variation in the sequence within individuals of all species analyzed, indicating intraindividual variation in the sequence of different copies of the ribosomal DNA. Furthermore, low-level intraspecific variation was detected. Sequence analyses of ITS2 products of T. ovis and T. globulosa demonstrated no sequence difference between them. Nevertheless, differences were detected between the ITS2 sequences of T. suis, T. leporis, and T. ovis, indicating that Trichuris species can reliably be differentiated by their ITS2 sequences and PCR-linked restriction-fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP).

Decadal Variation of Rainfall Seasonality in the North American Monsoon Region and Its Potential Causes

AbstractThis study shows that the North American monsoon system’s (NAMS) strength, onset, and retreat over northwestern Mexico exhibit multidecadal variations during the period 1948–2009. Two dry regimes, associated with late onsets, early retreats, and weaker rainfall rates, occurred in 1948–70 and 1991–2005, whereas a strong regime, associated with early onsets, late retreats, and stronger rainfall rates, occurred in 1971–90. A recovery of the monsoon strength was observed after 2005. This multidecadal variation is linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies’ (SSTAs) variability, which is a combination of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the warming SST trends. These SST modes appear to cause an anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhanced rainfall over the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico, which in turn increases the atmospheric stability over the monsoon region. However, these SST modes cannot fully explain the circulation and rainfall anomalies observed during the e...

A correlated shortening of the North and South American monsoon seasons in the past few decades

Our observational analysis shows that the wet seasons of the American monsoon systems have shortened since 1978 due to correlated earlier retreats of the North American monsoon (NAM) and late onsets of the southern Amazon wet season, an important part of the South American monsoon (SAM). These changes are related to the combination of the global sea surface temperature (SST) warming mode, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the westward shift of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and the enhancement of Pacific South American and Pacific North American wave train patterns, which induces variations of the regional circulation at interannual and decadal scales. The joint contributions from these forcing factors are associated with a stronger and more equatorward regional Hadley cell, which enhances convergence towards the equator, strengthening and possibly delaying the retreat of the tropical part of the NAM. This in turn accelerates the demise of the northern NAM and delays the reversal of the cross-equatorial flow over South America, reducing moisture transport to the SAM and delaying its onset. In addition, the thermodynamic response to warming appears to cause local drier land conditions over both regions, reinforcing the observed changes in these monsoons. Although previous studies have identified the isolated influence of the regional Hadley cell, ENSO, AMO, global SST warming, and NASH on the NAM, the correlated changes between NAM and SAM through variations of the cross-equatorial flow had not been established before.

Moisture sources to the 2010–2012 anomalous wet season in northern South America

During 2010–2012, northern South America experienced one of the strongest wet seasons during the recent decades, with socio-economic implications of wide proportions. This period was characterized by two stronger-than-average La Niña events, one occurred in 2010–2011 and another less intense event in 2011–2012. This study focused on identifying the main moisture sources, besides the eastern Pacific, for the anomalous wet season occurred in this region during 2010–2012, and their association with the La Niña events observed in the equatorial Pacific. The results discussed here suggest that the main moisture sources to this anomalous wet season were the Pacific Ocean (via the westerly flow of the Choco jet) and the Caribbean Sea (via the weakening of the Caribbean low-level jet and the development of southward anomalies toward northern South America). Such changes appear to be associated not only to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific, Caribbean Sea, and north Atlantic, but also to ENSO-independent variability in the Atlantic Ocean. The latter is related to an enhanced Atlantic Meridional Mode.

The Connection Between the North and South American Monsoons

We review evidence for a potential link between the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the South American Monsoon (SAM). Such a link is poorly documented in the literature, but if it were to exist, it could involve the influence of a monsoon onset on the cross-equatorial flow, atmospheric wave responses, and oceanic feedback to monsoon heating anomalies, which could in turn influence the decaying monsoon. With such a link, the variability of the NAM demise could be influenced by that of the SAM onset (or vice versa), in addition to its known dependence on regional land surface and adjacent oceans. The historical correlation between the NAM and the SAM appears to be mainly a consequence of both being dependent on tropical oceanic variability, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but an inter-monsoon link could be important for understanding the future climate variability of the American monsoons when the effects of anthropogenic forced change become more dominant—e.g., through reduction of evapotranspiration (ET) due to CO2 fertilization of the rainforest and large-scale land use over the Amazon. These effects might perhaps not only delay the onset of the SAM, but also impact the demise of the NAM.

An influence of extreme southern hemisphere cold surges on the North Atlantic Subtropical High through a shallow atmospheric circulation

Previous studies have attributed inter-hemisphere influences of the atmosphere to the latitudinal propagation of planetary waves crossing the equator, to the triggering of equatorial Kelvin waves, or to monsoonal circulation. Over the American-Atlantic sector, such cross-equatorial influences rarely occur during boreal summer due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. We have observed that an alternative mechanism provides an inter-hemisphere influence. When episodes of extreme cold surges and upper tropospheric westerly winds occur concurrently over southern hemisphere Amazonia, cold surges from extratropical South America can penetrate deep into southern Amazonia. Although they do not appear to influence upper tropospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere, extremely strong southerly cross-equatorial advection (> 2σ) of cold and dense air in the lower troposphere can reach as least 10°N. Such cold advection increases the northward cross-equatorial pressure gradient in the lower to middle troposphere, thus shallow northerly return flow below 500 hPa. This return flow and the strong lower tropospheric southerly cross-equatorial flow form an anomalous shallow meridional circulation spanning from southern Amazonia to the subtropical North Atlantic, with increased geopotential height anomalies exceeding +1 standard deviation to at least 18°N. It projects onto the southern edge of the NASH, increasing its pressure and leading to equatorward expansion of NASH’s southern boundary. These anomalies enhance the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), leading to its equatorward expansion. These extreme cold surges can potentially improving the predictability of weather patterns of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, including the variability of the NASH’s southern edge.

How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

The Choco jet is an important atmospheric feature of Colombian and northern South America hydro-climatology. This work assesses the ability of 26 coupled and 11 uncoupled (AMIP) global climate models (GCMs) included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to simulate the climatological basic features (annual cycle, spatial distribution and vertical structure) of this jet. Using factor and cluster analysis, we objectively classify models in Best, Worst, and Intermediate groups. Despite the coarse resolution of the GCMs, this study demonstrates that nearly all models can represent the existence of the Choco low-level jet. AMIP and Best models present a more realistic simulation of jet. Worst models exhibit biases such as an anomalous southward location of the Choco jet during the whole year and a shallower jet. The model skill to represent this jet comes from their ability to reproduce some of its main causes, such as the temperature and pressure differences between particular regions in the eastern Pacific and western Colombian lands, which are non-local features. Conversely, Worst models considerably underestimate temperature and pressure differences between these key regions. We identify a close relationship between the location of the Choco jet and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and CMIP5 models are able to represent such relationship. Errors in Worst models are related with bias in the location of the ITCZ over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the representation of the topography and the horizontal resolution.