Paola Ballon

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

BACKGROUND One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. METHODS For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. FINDINGS The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. INTERPRETATION The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. FUNDING Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.

Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 1 - Introduction

This working paper presents the normative, empirical, and policy motivations for focusing on multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis in general, and one measurement approach in particular. The fundamental normative motivation is to create effective measures that better reflect poor people’s experience, so that policies using such measures reduce poverty. Such measures are needed because, empirically, income-poor households are (surprisingly) not well-matched to households carrying other basic deprivations like malnutrition; also the trends of income and non-income deprivations are not matched, and nor does growth ensure the reduction of social deprivations. And, a dashboard overlooks the interconnection between deprivations, which people experience and policies seek to address. Turning to policy, we close by discussing how the Alkire-Foster methodology we present in Working Paper 86 (“Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 5 – The Alkire-Foster Counting Methology”) may be used.

A Structural Equation Model of Female Empowerment

Abstract This paper proposes a structural equation model to measure and explain female empowerment in Cambodia. Empowerment is defined as the decision-making ability of a woman regarding her strategic and non-strategic life choices. Grounded in the Capability Approach and in the gender economics literature this conceptualisation accounts for three key elements: resources, values/traditions, and decision-outcomes. These elements interact into a system of structural equations where a latent variable is specified to measure empowerment; decision-outcomes enter as partial metrics of empowerment; and resources, and values/traditions are modelled as exogenous factors. Stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare the empowerment status of women across life choices.

Rethinking Measures of Psychological Agency: A Study on the Urban Fringe of Bamako

Abstract Attempts to measure psychological agency have drawn on social psychology scholarship. Nonetheless, it is well documented that the Euro/American psychology paradigm is challenged by its tendency to universalise its theories. This raises a challenge for development scholars trying to measure the psychological domain; especially regarding understanding what the psychological domain may mean to people outside the Western liberal tradition. We examine the use of theoretical measures of psychological agency against local concepts of psychological agency from a neighbourhood on the urban fringe of Bamako. We conclude that there is no clear association between local and theoretical measures of psychological agency and therefore there is a need to include local and theoretical measures in the study of agency.

A Comparative Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Sudan and South Sudan

This paper assesses multidimensional poverty in Sudan and South Sudan. We use the National Baseline Household Surveys of 2009 to measure poverty incidence in education, consumption, access to public assets and possession of private assets across these two countries. We differentiate between children aged 6 to 14 years and adults aged 15 years or older. We apply a counting method for measuring multidimensional poverty at the individual level and perform dominance tests to check for the robustness of the poverty comparisons. Our findings show regional and sub-population differences in the unidimensional and multidimensional poverty status of people in both countries. Poverty in Sudan is generally less severe than in South Sudan, with a pattern showing (1) lesser unidimensional incidence of poverty and (2) lower multidimensional poverty indices and prevalence, but similar breadth, both for adults and children. This pattern also points towards Khartoum and Western Equatoria as the states with the least poverty, and Northern Darfur, and Warap as the states with the greatest poverty, both for adults and children, in Sudan and South Sudan, respectively. Policy intended at reducing poverty in each of the two countries should recognize the poverty profile differences across age groups, geographical areas and dimensions.

Introduction to Special Section: Quantitative Approaches to the Measurement and Analysis of Female Empowerment and Agency

Abstract This special issue presents four novel applications of quantitative methods to address measurement and analytical issues in the appraisal of female empowerment and agency. The methods presented comprise mixed methods, dominance analysis and structural equation models. The use of these methods is illustrated with empirical applications in Cambodia, India, Mali, and Turkey.

Data and Analysis

• The team collected the amount of dust produced in one basement while a train was being loaded out. • The floors were swept in approximately one hour intervals. • The rate of dust produced came to be 62.8 lbs. per hour within the basement that measured 9015 square foot.

Multidimensional Poverty in Sudan and South Sudan

This paper assesses multidimensional poverty in Sudan and South Sudan. We use the National Baseline Household Surveys (NBHS) of 2009 to measure poverty incidence in education, consumption, access to public assets and possession of private assets across these two countries. We differentiate between children/teenagers aged six to fourteen years and adults aged fifteen years or older. We apply a counting method for measuring multidimensional poverty at the individual level and perform dominance tests to check for the robustness of the poverty comparisons. Our findings show regional and sub-population differences in the unidimensional and multidimensional poverty status of people in Sudan and South Sudan. Poverty in Sudan is generally less severe than in South Sudan, with a pattern showing (i) lesser unidimensional incidence of poverty; (ii) lower multidimensional poverty indices and prevalence, but similar breadth, in Sudan than in South Sudan, both for adults and children. This pattern also points towards Khartoum and Western Equatoria as the states with the least poverty, and Northern Darfur, and Warap as the states with the greatest poverty, both for adults and children, in Sudan and South Sudan, respectively. Policy intended at reducing poverty in each of the two countries should recognize the poverty profile differences across age groups, geographical areas and dimensions.