Paola Michelozzi

Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities

BACKGROUND Higher incidence rates of childhood cancer and particularly leukemia have been observed in regions with higher radon levels, but case-control studies have given inconsistent results. We tested the hypothesis that domestic radon exposure increases the risk for childhood cancer. METHODS We identified 2400 incident cases of leukemia, central nervous system tumor, and malignant lymphoma diagnosed in children between 1968 and 1994 in the Danish Cancer Registry. Control children (n = 6697) were selected from the Danish Central Population Registry. Radon levels in residences of children and the cumulated exposure of each child were calculated as the product of exposure level and time, for each address occupied during childhood. RESULTS Cumulative radon exposure was associated with risk for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), with rate ratios of 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.98-1.49) for levels of 0.26 to 0.89 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years and 1.63 (1.05-2.53) for exposure to >0.89 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years, when compared with <0.26 x 10(3) Bq/m3-years. A linear dose-response analysis showed a 56% increase in the rate of ALL per 10(3) Bq/m3-years increase in exposure. The association with ALL persisted in sensitivity analyses and after adjustment for potential confounders. No association was found with the other types of childhood cancer. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that domestic radon exposure increases the risk for ALL during childhood but not for other childhood cancers.Background: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4°C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Short-term effects of particulate air pollution on cardiovascular diseases in eight European cities

Study objective: As part of the APHEA project this study examined the association between airborne particles and hospital admissions for cardiac causes (ICD9 390–429) in eight European cities (Barcelona, Birmingham, London, Milan, the Netherlands, Paris, Rome, and Stockholm). All admissions were studied, as well as admissions stratified by age. The association for ischaemic heart disease (ICD9 410–413) and stroke (ICD9 430–438) was also studied, also stratified by age. Design: Autoregressive Poisson models were used that controlled for long term trend, season, influenza epidemics, and meteorology to assess the short-term effects of particles in each city. The study also examined confounding by other pollutants. City specific results were pooled in a second stage regression to obtain more stable estimates and examine the sources of heterogeneity. Main results: The pooled percentage increases associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 and black smoke were respectively 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.8) for cardiac admissions of all ages, 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.0) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.4 to 2.2) for cardiac admissions over 65 years, and, 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7 to 1.5) for ischaemic heart disease over 65 years. The effect of PM10 was little changed by control for ozone or SO2, but was substantially reduced (CO) or eliminated (NO2) by control for other traffic related pollutants. The effect of black smoke remained practically unchanged controlling for CO and only somewhat reduced controlling for NO2. Conclusions: These effects of particulate air pollution on cardiac admissions suggest the primary effect is likely to be mainly attributable to diesel exhaust. Results for ischaemic heart disease below 65 years and for stroke over 65 years were inconclusive.

Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project

Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BackgroundThe present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.MethodsHeat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.ResultsThe effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.ConclusionsClimate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.

RATIONALE Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality: A Multicity, Population-Based, Case-Crossover Analysis

Background: Although studies have documented increased mortality during heat waves, little information is available on the subgroups most susceptible to these effects. We evaluated the effects of summertime high temperature on daily mortality among population subgroups defined by demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and episodes of hospitalization for various conditions during the preceding 2 years. Methods: We studied a total of 205,019 residents of 4 Italian cities (Bologna, Milan, Rome, and Turin) age 35 or older who died during 1997–2003. The case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between mean apparent temperature (same and previous day) and all-cause mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dying at 30°C (apparent temperature) relative to 20°C were estimated accounting for time, population changes, and air pollution. Results: We found an overall OR of 1.34 (CI = 1.27–1.42) at 30°C relative to 20°C. The odds ratio increased with age and was higher among women (OR = 1.45; 1.37–1.52) and among widows and widowers (1.50; 1.33–1.69). Low area-based income modestly increased the effect. Among the preexisting medical conditions investigated, effect modification was detected for previous psychiatric disorders (1.69; 1.39–2.07), depression (1.72; 1.24–2.39), heart conduction disorders (1.77; 1.38–2.27), and circulatory disorders of the brain (1.47; 1.34–1.62). Temperature-related mortality was higher among people residing in nursing homes, and a large effect was also detected for hospitalized subjects. Conclusions: Subsets of the population that are particularly vulnerable to high summer temperatures include the elderly, women, widows and widowers, those with selected medical conditions, and those staying in nursing homes and healthcare facilities.

Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in Rome, Italy

Most of the evidence regarding the association between particulate air pollution and emergency room visits or hospital admissions for respiratory conditions and asthma comes from the USA. European time-series analyses have suggested that gaseous air pollutants are important determinants of acute hospitalization for respiratory conditions, at least as important as particulate mass. The association between daily mean levels of suspended particles and gaseous pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone) was examined. The daily emergency hospital admissions for respiratory conditions in the metropolitan area of Rome during 1995-1997 were also recorded. Daily counts of hospital admissions for total respiratory conditions (43 admissions day(-1)), acute respiratory infections including pneumonia (18 day(-1)), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (13 day(-1)), and asthma (4.5 day(-1)) among residents of all ages and among children (0-14 yrs) were analysed. The generalized additive models included spline smooth functions of the day of study, mean temperature, mean humidity, influenza epidemics, and indicator variables for day of the week and holidays. Total respiratory admissions were significantly associated with same-day level of NO2 (2.5% increase per interquartile range (IQR) change, 22.3 microg x m(-3)) and CO (2.8% increase per IQR, 1.5 mg x m(-3)). No effect was found for particulate matter and SO2, whereas O3 was associated with admissions only among children (lag 1, 5.5% increase per IQR, 23.9 microg x m3). The effect of NO2 was stronger on acute respiratory infections (lag 0, 4.0% increase) and on asthma among children (lag 1, 10.7% increase). The admissions for all ages for asthma and COPD were associated only with same-day level of CO (5.5% and 4.3% increase, respectively). Multipollutant models confirmed the role of CO on all respiratory admissions, including asthma and COPD, and that of NO2 on acute respiratory infections. Among children, O3 remained a strong indicator of acute respiratory infections. Carbon monoxide and photochemical pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, ozone) appear to be determinants of acute respiratory conditions in Rome. Since carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide are good indicators of combustion products from traffic related sources, the detected effect may be due to unmeasured fine and ultrafine particles.

Air pollution and myocardial infarction in Rome: a case-crossover analysis.

Background: Daily air pollution is associated with increased hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, but there are few observations on the link with acute myocardial infarction. To evaluate the relation between various urban air pollutants (total suspended particulate, SO2, CO, NO2) and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction in Rome, Italy, we performed a case-crossover analysis and studied whether individual characteristics act as effect modifiers. Methods: We studied 6531 subjects residing in Rome and hospitalized for a first episode of acute myocardial infarction (International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition: 410) from January 1995 to June 1997. The following individual information was available: sex, age, date of hospitalization, coexisting illnesses (hypertension, 25%; diabetes, 15%), and cardiac severity (conduction disorders, 6%; cardiac dysrhythmias, 20%; heart failure, 11%). Daily air pollution data were taken from 5 city monitors. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design; control days were the same day of the week as the myocardial infarction occurred, in other weeks of the month. Results: Positive associations were found for total suspended particulate, NO2 and CO. The strongest and most consistent effect was found for total suspended particulate. The odds ratio (OR) associated with 10 &mgr;g/m3 of total suspended particulate over the 0- to 2-day lag was 1.028 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.005–1.052). The association with total suspended particulate tended to be stronger among people older than 74 years of age (OR = 1.046; CI = 1.005–1.089), in the warm period of the year (OR = 1.046; CI = 1.008–1.087), and among subjects who had heart conduction disorders (OR = 1.080; CI = 0.987–1.181). Conclusions: The results suggest that air pollution increases the risk of myocardial infarction, especially during the warm season. There was a tendency for a stronger effect among the elderly and people with heart conduction disturbances.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to air pollution: a multicity assessment of mortality displacement.

Although the association between particulate matter and mortality or morbidity is generally accepted, controversy remains about the importance of the association. If it is due solely to the deaths of frail individuals, which are brought forward by only a brief period of time, the public health implications of the association are fewer than if there is an increase in the number of deaths. Recently, other research has addressed the mortality displacement issue in single-city analysis. We analyzed this issue with a distributed lag model in a multicity hierarchic modeling approach, within the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA-2) study. We fit a Poisson regression model and a polynomial distributed lag model with up to 40 days of delay in each city. In the second stage we combined the city-specific results. We found that the overall effect of particulate matter less than 10 &mgr;M in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) per 10 &mgr;g/m3 for the fourth-degree distributed lag model is a 1.61% increase in daily deaths (95% CI = 1.02–2.20), whereas the mean of PM10 on the same day and the previous day is associated with only a 0.70% increase in deaths (95% CI = 0.43–0.97). This result is unchanged using an unconstrained distributed lag model. Our study confirms that the effects observed in daily time-series studies are not due primarily to short-term mortality displacement. The effect size estimate for airborne particles more than doubles when we consider longer-term effects, which has important implications for risk assessment.

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation

Background: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.